0730: marginal to flat at Dee Why this morning.

Hello Friends,

The settings this morning are pretty close to what they were 24 hours ago – not withstanding the burst of windiness with the change yesterday. Bureau’s call is for light and variable winds this morning, eventually settling to the NE and building to 15-20 kts during the afternoon. The MHL buoy is showing a bit over a metre of 8 sec period south swell. And Dee Why is, as one would expect, small to just about flat. No one was in the water that I could see, but maybe up toward the pole you might find a little tiny something… maybe…

What we all want to know is will there be swell anytime soon. So, to save you a trip to the models for a look, here’s what I reckon they’re telling us. It seems that we’re unlikely to see much improvement over today. It might possibly pick up just a touch as the swell direction gets a bit more around to the SE. But my hopes for waves are, shall we, say, modest.

Tomorrow should see the dominant windswell direction coming out of the SE and, with luck, the period might even bump up enough to make it just barely surfable. It should be another sunny day with light N-NW winds in the morning, building to 20-25 kts. Just as those winds are building to peak speed, it might just happen that the first very long period south sets could begin turning up. At least one of the models is still calling for 18 second (!) periods. Even if a wave is only a metre high, when it has a period of 18 seconds, it can turn into something with a face 2-3x that height – at least. 

But it will be a long wait between those sets. When we have 12 sec period swell, you would get around 4-6 waves in the space of a minute when a set arrives. But when the period is 18 seconds, the distance between waves is around 500 metres! Interestingly, it also means that those waves are feeling bottom once it gets shallower than about 250 metres (which means they start losing some energy to drag). Anyway, when a group of those 18 sec period waves arrives, you pretty obviously will only have three bites at the cherry in the space of a minute – maximum.

‘Too much information Don!’ I hear you cry. Sorry, getting all weather nerdy on ya. Anyway, let’s hope those long period puppies turn up – and that they don’t all happen at night. The pulse could be as short as 12 hours and some of the models calculate the arrival locally to be toward dusk tomorrow…

BTW, I’m still sniffing around for a notebook capable of running XP… if you’ve got something surplus to requirements, put a price on it and drop me a line via our contact form. And thanks in advance!

Go well with your day!

Yep, still small...

Hello Friends,

Weak little south pulse showing on the buoy data this morning, but I can’t see much of anything showing at Dee Why. But I wasn’t really expecting to, given that it’s barely a metre out at sea from the SSE and the period is a gutless 8 seconds. 

It should push up a bit today according to the Bureau. The wind is set to reach 20-30 kts from the SW-SE, before backing of again to 15-20 kts. There’s not much of a breeze as I write this around 0800, but down the coast at places like Ulladulla and Green Cape, the wind has kicked up and is blowing anywhere from 10-25kts from the SSW. The latest buoy data isn’t showing any significant increase in the average swell size though, so I’m not real optimistic about our hopes for a significant improvement in the next few hours.

Model watchers have no doubt picked up on the prospects of a brief very long period pulse coming our way in Sydney around Weds mid-afternoon. It’s looking mighty brief though. Maybe 12-16 hours. And it is possible that the peak will hit in the middle of the night. How big? Well, if the forecast period of 16-18 seconds eventuates and if it’s 1.5-2 metres, we’d be talking sets well into the overhead range at exposed south spots.

Here’s the Bureau’s marine forecast for Sydney for the next few days:

Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Strong Wind Warning.
Monday until midnight: Wind: SW/SE increasing to 20/30 knots during the late morning, before easing to 15/20 knots later.Sea: 1 to 1.5 metres rising 2 to 3 metres late morning, abating later.Swell: S’ly 1 to 1.5 metres increasing to about 2 metres. 
Tuesday: Wind: SW/SE 10/15 knots tending NE 10/15 knots in the afternoon.Sea: to 1 metre.Swell: S 1.5 to 2 metres. 
Wednesday Outlook: Wind: N/NE increasing to 20/25 knots in afternoon.
Thursday Outlook: Wind: NW/NE 15/25 knots

I like the look of Thursday morning – if that pulse a) materialises and b) really does have an 18 sec period.

A couple requests for you this morning, if I may…

I’m looking for a notebook capable of running XP but my budget is only a couple hundred bucks – so I’m not expecting to get much! If you have such an object, drop me a note via our contact form.

Second request, I’m interested in hearing about any good surf bloggers you’ve come across. You know the deal: someone who writes regularly about a particular location from a surfer perspective.

Have yourself a good one!