Archive for September 2008
The settings this morning are pretty close to what they were 24 hours ago – not withstanding the burst of windiness with the change yesterday. Bureau’s call is for light and variable winds this morning, eventually settling to the NE and building to 15-20 kts during the afternoon. The MHL buoy is showing a bit over a metre of 8 sec period south swell. And Dee Why is, as one would expect, small to just about flat. No one was in the water that I could see, but maybe up toward the pole you might find a little tiny something… maybe…
What we all want to know is will there be swell anytime soon. So, to save you a trip to the models for a look, here’s what I reckon they’re telling us. It seems that we’re unlikely to see much improvement over today. It might possibly pick up just a touch as the swell direction gets a bit more around to the SE. But my hopes for waves are, shall we, say, modest.
Tomorrow should see the dominant windswell direction coming out of the SE and, with luck, the period might even bump up enough to make it just barely surfable. It should be another sunny day with light N-NW winds in the morning, building to 20-25 kts. Just as those winds are building to peak speed, it might just happen that the first very long period south sets could begin turning up. At least one of the models is still calling for 18 second (!) periods. Even if a wave is only a metre high, when it has a period of 18 seconds, it can turn into something with a face 2-3x that height – at least.
But it will be a long wait between those sets. When we have 12 sec period swell, you would get around 4-6 waves in the space of a minute when a set arrives. But when the period is 18 seconds, the distance between waves is around 500 metres! Interestingly, it also means that those waves are feeling bottom once it gets shallower than about 250 metres (which means they start losing some energy to drag). Anyway, when a group of those 18 sec period waves arrives, you pretty obviously will only have three bites at the cherry in the space of a minute – maximum.
‘Too much information Don!’ I hear you cry. Sorry, getting all weather nerdy on ya. Anyway, let’s hope those long period puppies turn up – and that they don’t all happen at night. The pulse could be as short as 12 hours and some of the models calculate the arrival locally to be toward dusk tomorrow…
BTW, I’m still sniffing around for a notebook capable of running XP… if you’ve got something surplus to requirements, put a price on it and drop me a line via our contact form. And thanks in advance!
Go well with your day!
WEEKLY REPORTS for 2008
Report No: 38-08
Period: Monday 20th to Sunday 26th September 08
Once again another fine and sunny week went down in Samoa. Combine this with a few days of no wind and it wasn’t too bad on the surf front either.
Monday. High tide 1:34pm The boat trip to Pebbles was rewarded by overhead barrels and strong offshore winds. With the wind holding the waves up it was a perfect opportunity to take off really deep for maximum tube time. Some really nice barrels were made as well as the odd wackable section thrown up.
Tuesday. High tide 1:55pm Despite similar conditions to yesterday our surfers chose to have a family day around the resort so no surfing today.
Wednesday. High tide 3:26pm Wakas for the first time in a little while was the focus of the boat trip today. At around head high with a light SE wind it had some nice sections but was a little messy.
Thursday. High tide 3:45am and 4:12pm The pre dawn surf out the front @ Resorts saw some clean little peaks on offer. Unfortunately a strong ESE wind built up during the day stuffing any chance of an arvo boat trip. A few of the crew went down to check out Village Lefts which was about head high in the cross shore conditions, not perfect but very surfable
Friday. High tide 4:31am and 4:54pm A super early pre dawn boat trip to Y-Tops was the call for today. Upon arrival the crew were greeted with glassy head high surf. It was fairly peaky and the barrels were caving in on themselves rather quickly so they took the opportunity to smash out a few turns before checking out the beautiful snorkeling in the cove as the tide dropped out.
Saturday. High tide 5:15am and 5:33pm Both the morning and arvo surfs were enjoyed out front out @ Resorts today. Both lefts and rights were on offer and the occasional peak was split in the head high conditions in which we all got our fair share of waves.
Sunday. High tide 5:56am and 6:12pm Special K was the focus for the morning boat trip which saw some small yet perfect waves pushing down the reef. With shoulder to head high rights on offer the crew made the most of the small stuff with grommet Thomas in fine form with the smaller surf suiting him down to the ground.
Photos Apologies but no shots of last weeks action, equipment malfunction apparently. BUT to keep the juices flowing I’ve wacked in a shot of Y-Tops from Feb 23rd & Pebbles from March 16th
What fun this has been. I stuffed up on the last day though. I forgot to get Don to change the lyric line today. So, we’ll go with the same one to finish up then. You can enter more than once if you like.
So, to win Kings of Leon Only By The Night framed album artwork, signed by the band, or a signed copy of this newly released CD, with the single Sex On Fire, check out the competition page for the last day.
It’s a bit fat this morning but worth getting out there!!
Big Picture, Dee Why.
Weak little south pulse showing on the buoy data this morning, but I can’t see much of anything showing at Dee Why. But I wasn’t really expecting to, given that it’s barely a metre out at sea from the SSE and the period is a gutless 8 seconds.
It should push up a bit today according to the Bureau. The wind is set to reach 20-30 kts from the SW-SE, before backing of again to 15-20 kts. There’s not much of a breeze as I write this around 0800, but down the coast at places like Ulladulla and Green Cape, the wind has kicked up and is blowing anywhere from 10-25kts from the SSW. The latest buoy data isn’t showing any significant increase in the average swell size though, so I’m not real optimistic about our hopes for a significant improvement in the next few hours.
Model watchers have no doubt picked up on the prospects of a brief very long period pulse coming our way in Sydney around Weds mid-afternoon. It’s looking mighty brief though. Maybe 12-16 hours. And it is possible that the peak will hit in the middle of the night. How big? Well, if the forecast period of 16-18 seconds eventuates and if it’s 1.5-2 metres, we’d be talking sets well into the overhead range at exposed south spots.
Here’s the Bureau’s marine forecast for Sydney for the next few days:
Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Strong Wind Warning.
Monday until midnight: Wind: SW/SE increasing to 20/30 knots during the late morning, before easing to 15/20 knots later.Sea: 1 to 1.5 metres rising 2 to 3 metres late morning, abating later.Swell: S’ly 1 to 1.5 metres increasing to about 2 metres.
Tuesday: Wind: SW/SE 10/15 knots tending NE 10/15 knots in the afternoon.Sea: to 1 metre.Swell: S 1.5 to 2 metres.
Wednesday Outlook: Wind: N/NE increasing to 20/25 knots in afternoon.
Thursday Outlook: Wind: NW/NE 15/25 knots
I like the look of Thursday morning – if that pulse a) materialises and b) really does have an 18 sec period.
A couple requests for you this morning, if I may…
I’m looking for a notebook capable of running XP but my budget is only a couple hundred bucks – so I’m not expecting to get much! If you have such an object, drop me a note via our contact form.
Second request, I’m interested in hearing about any good surf bloggers you’ve come across. You know the deal: someone who writes regularly about a particular location from a surfer perspective.
Have yourself a good one!
Getting on toward lunch time and the expected wind has arrived in Sydney. It’s 25-30 kts from the SSE now, but a couple hours ago, while it was still a zephyr, I joined a few others down near Marquesas for some high tide silliness. Set waves were maybe chest high on take off, but when you kicked out 20 metres later, they were around knee to waist high. Gutless as too thanks to the very short period. But what the hey, we were in the water and catching ‘em.
I’d say the wind has reduced options for a clean wave to about zero. With luck it’ll push things up a bit and who knows, maybe tomorrow morning there’ll still be a little something left around to play with.
A few neat little mal waves around early 1-2ft (very generous size call) with good condx. Southerly change has blown in and its grey and not nearly so appetising, although on the upside we should see some swell increase. Missable. Rosco.