Holding pattern

0730: a sunshower, dribbly onshore wind and nothin' much in the way of swell...

Hello Friends,

Sort of an interesting day for those of us who enjoy watching weather – breezy, the odd shower, the occasional sunbeam. But, sadly, where the surf’s concerned, it’s conforming to the forecasts.

Once again, the MHL Sydney buoy is reporting average swell height at sea of about a metre from the SE. It’s strictly windswell too, as the period is just a choppy 6 seconds. The only bright(ish) spot I can see in the data is a very slight uptick in the power setting on the Byron buoy. I’m reaching here though, because it’s only a second or so! But maybe it’s the first hint of the inbound east swell…

The forecasts continue to anticipate the development of pretty serious amounts of swell along the east coast. And, if the models are to be believed, it should last for 3 or 4 days or even longer. Sadly, it also looks as though we’re going to have pretty strong E-SE winds over the coming days as well, so the surf options are probably going to be limited to the very protected south corners.

Could be interesting…

Go well with your Wednesday plans!

Great waves in Samoa

Pebbles

WEEKLY   REPORTS  for    2008

Report No:   34-08

Period:            Monday 25^th to Sunday 31^st August 08

Some quite nice little barrels were scored this fine and sunny week with Pebbles being the main destination due SW swell / SE wind combo.

Monday. High tide 2:43pm   With the SE winds up early the crew opted for a trip to the north side of Upolu. After a few stops and a bit of searching they ended up surfing at The Rock which had some head height peaks pushing in. Meanwhile back at Salamumu Paul and Brent scored some pretty good waves down at Village Lefts and the wind backed off as they were paddling out making for rather clean head height conditions.

Tuesday. High tide 3:39pm   An arvo session at Village Lefts was the plan for today. Some rather large sets were rolling through (double overhead) and accounted for a broken board. Guest Ben managed to master the conditions to catch a few nice rides in what was a bit of a difficult session with some west in the swell making for lots of close outs.

Wednesday. High tide3:57am and 4:29pm   The early boat trip to Pebbles saw some good waves until the tide got too low. With no wind early and a SW swell Pebbles was setting up quite nicely.

Thursday. High tide 4:47am and 5:15pm   Some really fun barrels at Pebbles if you picked the right one, some rather nasty wipeouts were less enjoyed if it was got wrong, especially as the tide was dropping from the time they got there. Overall a great little session that left the crew both stoked and bleeding (see photos).

Friday. High tide 5:33am and 5:58pm   Back to Pebbles this morning where some more fun barrels were enjoyed (and far fewer wipeouts). The swell had dropped considerably overnight however some nice waves were still pushing into a rather strong offshore wind. A few of the guys went for an afternoon session at Village Lefts to mix things up a bit and scored with some nice little waves around shoulder to head high.

Saturday. High tide 6:18am  An early boat trip saw a return to Pebbles where the remaining SW swell was pushing in the occasional head high barrel. It was a bit all over the place and tricky to surf making for a challenging session, but heaps of fun.

Sunday. High tide 7:01am   Today’s boat trip cancelled due to crap weather. Looks like a new swell coming up from the SE with stormy SE winds making for messy looking conditions out on the ocean. Hopefully the new swell will build and clean up over the course of today, making for some good surf tomorrow.

Photos   34a-08 A guest titled ‘The Red Beacon’ pulling in at Pebbles,   34b-08 Brett (not our guide Brent)  gets photo of the day at Pebbles on Thursday, 34c-08 Sa’Moana chef Shane bashing out a nice turn at Pebbles.

Arvo update: signs of life

At around 10 after 4 there was one very keen person jagging a few junkers at Dee Why point.

Hello Friends,

Taking time away from wrestling with code, I climbed up into the crow’s nest to grab another shot of the point for you. Looks pretty ordinary one would have to say. The big feature is the wind which, as I write this, is belting along at around 20 kts from the SSE. A short period (as in 6 seconds) SE windswell is being pushed up, but while it may be averaging around 2 metres out at sea from the south, inshore at the likes of the point, you’d be doing well to find anything with a face bigger than about a metre.

Still, the indications are that this could be the start of a size increase. Saturday should be interesting… dig the following WAM:

72 hour forecast model

TG’s Forecast

Surf forecast issued Wednesday 3 September 2008: 

4 day outlook for Sydney:

Coming up but probably messy.

Thursday: rising to 2-3 metres East South East.

Friday: 2-3 metres East.

Saturday: 2-3 metres East.

Sunday: about 2 metres East, dropping back to the 1-2 metre range.

Water temp is around 16.

Far North Coast

Thursday: 2-4 metres East.

Friday: about 4 metres East.

Saturday: 3-4 metres South East.

Sunday: about 2 metres South East.

Water temp at Byron is around 19-20.

Sydney Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for Wednesday
A few showers. Mostly cloudy. Freshening southeast winds.
Precis: A few showers.

City:          Max:   18  Parramatta:  Max:   17
Terrey Hills:  Max:   16  Penrith:     Max:   17
Liverpool     Max:   18  Richmond:    Max:   17

UV Alert: 9:50 am to 2:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 5 [Moderate]

Forecast for Thursday
A few showers. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds strengthening in the east later.

Precis: A few showers.

City:  Min:   10  Max:   16
West:  Min:    6  Max:   16

Friday Showers. Windy.

City:  Min:   10  Max:   16
West:  Min:    5  Max:   16

Saturday Showers easing. Windy.

City:  Min:   10  Max:   18
West:  Min:    4  Max:   18

Sunday Fine.

City:  Min:    9  Max:   19
West:  Min:    2  Max:   19

Monday Mostly fine.

City:  Min:    9  Max:   19
West:  Min:    2  Max:   20

Tuesday Fine.

City:  Min:    8  Max:   20
West:  Min:    2  Max:   21

Windy.

No surf to speak of but should see something starting by this evening…

Windy, choppy, flat. But expect to see some surf late today...

Mona Vale

Not much to say about Mona this morning, its well below average and not in any way worth going out here.

Not Today.

Not at all worth the effort. Blown out mushmellows. I’m off to the skate park.

Cronulla

Crappy tiny surf, SE blowing, forget it.
WIND: SE at 30kph. WATER TEMP: 16 degrees.
SWELL: SE 1-2 metres at 6 seconds.
FORECAST: A few showers. Cool and mostly cloudy. Freshening south to southeast winds.
MAX AIR TEMP TODAY: 15-17 degrees.
TIDES: HIGH: 10:20 LOW: 16:30
WINDSURFERS: OK for most riders.
BOAT DIVING: Average sea conditions outside, vis around 10m+ on the TUGGERAH and Kelloe, 10m+ at Barons Hut, thanks to www.seatamerdive.com Sydney Scuba Diving Boat Charter and Ian Griffiths “Griffiti”.
SHORE DIVING: 5+ metres vis at Oak Park. 4 metres at Shiprock.
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C C

Overcast and mild on the Central Coast this Wednesday morning.  The swell is bumpy, weak and small at 1 – 2 feet from the east southeast.  There is a light south southeast breeze.  Low tide 0400 and high tide around 1020.  Local barometer 1022 hpa, 93% humidity, 10 degrees C.  Have a good one!

Morning all!

Hello Friends,

I actually knocked this out last night and posted it so’s you early risers would have something to read!

Outlook for Weds in Sydney is not great. At close of play on Tuesday, the windswell was averaging about a metre from the east, but with a period of less than 8 seconds, you’d be doing very well indeed to find something remotely rideable.

However, as we’ve been noting since the weekend, it appears that Huey may have a little something in store for us. Dig this summary from the Bureau issued a little before 4pm yesterday:

Synoptic Situation
A south to southeast airflow will become established along the NSW coast on Wednesday as a strong high moves towards Tasmania. The high will drift only slowly east, being in the southern Tasman Sea later Thursday with winds gradually tending more easterly. A low is likely to develop off the coast near the NSW/Queensland border overnight Thursday into Friday, before drifting S/SE. Gale force winds will probably eventuate to the south of the low and could occur in the W/SW flow to the north and west of the low if it deepens significantly on Friday. Wind speed and direction in the Northern Rivers and Mid North Coast on Friday will depend heavily on the position of the low. An increase in the E swell may occur in the north on Thursday in advance of this development; the result of a strong high pressure system to the east of New Zealand.

The models continue to look absolutely nutty for Sydney (and north from there) starting late Friday. Still calling for the peak to arrive Saturday morning, but with a lot of south wind. However, energy should stick around in one form or another for a few days.

I should be along in the next hour or so with a picture and more prognostications…