Rain and a southerly

AFTERNOON UPDATE: Wind is howling along quite nicely up here in the hills behind Dee Why. The Bureau says it’s up to 20-30 kts along the coast. We’re still getting showers through the joint at regular intervals and it hasn’t warmed up at all either. Around 3 pm, we had a ten minute break between showers, so I quickly climbed up into the crows nest and pointed the Century 650mm down toward Dee Why. It looked reasonably protected, considering, but while there were a few bods in the shories, the point must not be doing much because no one seemed to be haning around out there.  The period has gone up to around 9 seconds and the average height of the primary south swell at sea is up to 4 metres. But add in the windswell and sailors are looking at some potentially huge moments as the peaks hit 8 metres. Still looks as though this morning’s estimates for the next couple days are about right (see below)

3pm: Dee Why showing some sets, but the cold is keeping it uncrowded.

Hello Friends,

You know what? It’s cold in the old Sydney this morning. At around 0800 it was only 12 outside the RealSurf wheelhouse. Yikes! Depending on where you’re standing along the coast of our region, the wind is out of the SW at anywhere from 15-30 kts. This morning’s rain should become more occasional through the day says the Bureau.

So, what’s happening with the swell? I can’t take a picture yet because of the aforementioned rain, but it looks as though there are some small (waist to chest high) sets as you move north along the beach at Dee Why. But I didn’t see anyone in the water. Funny that. Overnight the swell came back to dead south and the average size bumped up into the 3 metre range (with the seas on top of it hitting 5m). The key power setting hasn’t moved much though. It’s still around the 7-8 second mark.

The wind is set to rage along at the present speeds right through about lunchtime tomorrow in Sydney.

…

0830: pretty ordinary looking conditions for Long Reef.

Had to run an errand, so I grabbed a couple snaps for you. Not outstandingly interesting it has to be said. Long Reef was sideshore and messy, but a little bit cleaner down toward the lagoon. But by a little bit, I mean a very little bit. The conditions are utterly horrid and uninviting in the extreme – cold, windblown and raining steadily.

Around the corner, out of the wind, there are some very tiny things coming into Whiterock. Maybe if you were a keen bodyboarder, or a super keen boardrider, you might be able to make something of the knee to waist high things getting there. If the period was a bit longer and if the swell was more around to the SE, it would be interesting.

0830: tiny but perfectly formed little left briefly stands up in the wind and rain.

The forecast models are showing the south swell building toward a peak sometime early tomorrow morning. Of course that’s when the marine forecast says it’ll still be very windy.  With luck though it won’t disappear before the wind backs off and the weather improves on Friday morning.

0600: not big, but definitely tasty looking at Snapper.

Next order of business for me is to see if I can find something interesting for today’s editor’s picks. I might have a look up SE Qld way to see how things are shaping along those surf zones. The WRL cam at Snapper shows some nice lines, so I wonder if that’s a fluke or not…

Speaking of pics, how ’bout Dee Why Rob’s amazing kite shots this morning? We should get him to explain how he rigged it up…

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TG’s Forecast

Surf Forecast issued Wednesday 22 October 2008: 5 day outlook for Sydney: Surf build up from strong South wind…surf gradually go down…

Thursday: 3-4 metres at places that like dead South swell…and a fresh S/SE wind.

Friday: 2-3 metres dead South.

Saturday: in the 1-2 metre range upper end dead South.

Sunday: in the 1-2 metre range East South East.

Monday: 1-2 metres dead South.

Water temp’s around 19.

Weather from the Bureau:

Boy they’re getting precise these days… A weather alert for Sydney Road!?

Warning summary
Sydney Road Weather Alert. Gale Warning for Sydney Closed and Coastal Waters. For the latest warning information please check the Bureau’s web site http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/nsw

Forecast for Wednesday
Occasional showers, particularly near the coast. Sunny breaks in the west. Cold, fresh to strong and gusty southerly winds.
Precis: Windy. Occasional showers.

City:          Max:   15  Parramatta:  Max:   15
Terrey Hills:  Max:   15  Penrith:     Max:   15
Liverpool     Max:   15  Richmond:    Max:   15

UV Alert: 9:10 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 9 [Very High]

Forecast for Thursday
A few showers, chiefly near the coast. Cloudy periods. Fresh to strong southerly winds easing during the day.

Precis: A few showers.

City:  Min:   12  Max:   18
West:  Min:    8  Max:   19

Friday Fine.

City:  Min:   10  Max:   23
West:  Min:    6  Max:   24

Saturday Fine.

City:  Min:   13  Max:   25
West:  Min:    9  Max:   29

Sunday Chance afternoon shower or two.

City:  Min:   17  Max:   29
West:  Min:   12  Max:   32

Monday Mostly fine.

City:  Min:   17  Max:   23
West:  Min:   13  Max:   25

Tuesday Fine

City:  Min:   18  Max:   24
West:  Min:   15  Max:   27

Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Gale Warning
Wednesday until midnight: Wind: S 30/40 knots.Sea: 3 to 4 metres. Swell: S 2 to 2.5 metres.
Thursday: Wind: S/SE 25/35 knots, reaching 40 knots offshore at first, easing to S 20/30 knots during the morning, 10/15 knots later.Sea: 3 to 4 metres, abating to 2 to 3 metres during the morning, 1 to 1.5 metres later. Swell: S 2.5 to 3.5 metres.
Friday Outlook: Wind: SW 5/15 knots, turning SE/NE.
Saturday Outlook: Wind: NW/NE 10/20 knots.

Lunchtime Rpt

The wind has brought in a semblance of swell and plenty of hardy souls are out performing a simulation of surfing from Freshy to DY in unseasonably cool conditions. The occasional shoulder-high set-wave just teases the appetite

Waves of questionable quality- but waves!

We have 3 feet of southern mush at Curly with SW winds tending S shortly.  It’s super short period and not really ridable yet but maybe something by this arvo at Manly if we are really lucky as the size picks up and the period pushes out a bit.  Tomorrow should be more of the same and the best bet looks like Friday morning at this stage with forecast offshore winds.  Swell should disappear after Saturday so make the most of this pulse after the long dry spell.  Enjoy.

Mona Vale

MV this morning

It’s looking nice out there this morning- warm, sunny, clean waves, good winds, just all round pumping, untill you open your eyes.

Now let me see, where did I leave my wetsuit?

It’s as choppy as a karate studio but If you are super keen there is a somewhat protected wave in Bondi’s southern corner. (But don’t tell anyone). Tama and Bronte are pretty much out of the equation. (You can tell anyone).

Promising, but messy

One guy out on the Point at Dee Why on a mal getting a few waves in the knee to waist high region. Geez, it’s a depressing-looking day out there though. Rain radar is showing Sydney pretty much surrounded by rain and looks to be sticking around for a while. The models show the swell continuing to build today but backing off to the background noise level by about noon tomorrow.  Could get up to 4m by later today. Wind will continue to ratchet up throughout the day, reaching  25+ knots from the south later on, so south corners are the the only places likely to retain any decent quality. 

Had a fun weekend up at Hawks Nest on the weekend, mostly kitesurfing. Waves were generally small but about once every 20-30 minutes there’d be a big overhead and a half wave with some serious punch. I kited downwind from Little Gibber headland to Hawks Nest Surf Club (about 11km) and there wasn’t another person in the water the entire distance.

Hawks Nest solitude

Rubbish!

Heavy showers and windy on the Central Coast this Wednesday morning.  The swell is bumpy and disoraganised at 3 – 4 feet from the southeast.  There is a moderate to strong east southeast breeze.  Low tide 0910 and high tide around 1540.  Local barometer 1014 hpa, 96% humidity, 11 degrees C.  Have a good one!