Settings unchanged

Just before 0700 and Dee Why still as it was.

Hello Friends,

Just as the early-rising Rob reports, the waves are just as they were yesterday morning. I saw the Goat yesterday evening and he hasn’t changed his view about our prospects for this weekend and the week ahead. In a word, his call is for weak.

This morning’s microness at Dee Why is exactly what you’d expect to see given the data coming from the MHL buoy. It’s showing a very slight improvement over yesterday however, so I’m hoping that will mean a little windswell wave this afternoon after the NE’r blows for awhile. Right now it’s a touch over a metre out at sea with an average period of 7 seconds. The Bureau is still saying that it expects the wind to be up into the 20-30kt range late this afternoon. That should bump things up a little and with luck there could be the odd thing in the chest high range at the most exposed spots.

Have yourself a top old day!

31 Jan 2009: ABC 702 surf report by Don

Follow me on twitter: http://twitter.com/mr_realsurf

Acidic oceans are coming

On 30 January more than 150 leading marine scientists from 26 countries warned that without immediate action by the world’s politicians, catastrophic damage to the world’s marine ecosystems is highly likely. This is not theoretical, ocean acidification is already detectable – and is accelerating.

“The chemistry is so fundamental and changes so rapid and severe that impacts on organisms appear unavoidable.” said James Orr of the Marine Environment Laboratories (MEL-IAEA) and chairman of the symposium. “The questions are now how bad will it be and how soon will it happen. The report from the symposium summarizes the state of the science and priorities for future research, while the Monaco Declaration implores political leaders to launch urgent actions to limit the source of the problem.” 

According to The Ocean Acidification Network (which includes UNESCO, intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, Scientifc Committee on Oceanic Research and others), increased acidification will not only have dire effects on the “calcareous phytoplankton, mussels, snails, sea urchins and other marine organisms [that] use calcium (Ca) and carbonate (CO3) in seawater to construct their calcium carbonate (CaCO3) shells or skeletons”, it will also severely affect coral reefs.

It is estimated that by 2050, we may be losing more reef area to erosion than can be rebuilt through new calcification. There is minimal understanding of how the combined effects of warming seas (which cause coral bleaching) and reduced calcification due to acidification will interact.

reference

Yaaaaaaaawn.

Nothing, zippo, nada, tipota, flatski.

C C Ditto

Fine, dewy and warm on the Central Coast this Saturday morning.  The swell is smooth, weak and very small at 1 – 2 feet from the northeast.  There is a light northeast breeze forecast to strengthen later with another warm day.  Low tide 0555 and high tide around 1210.  Local barometer 1013 hpa, 92% humidity, 18 degrees C.  Have a good weekend.

Dee Why: Just the usual dribble

Same as it ever was–just the usual tiny, knee high dribble this morning. Not even worth a picture.  I’m off to the South Coast–perhaps there’s something better down there. Have a great weekend.  Cheers, Rob

Sat. early riser call

Hello Early Risers,

Looks as though paddling out at first light will mean light NE breezes to begin with. Yesterday at dusk, the wind was out of the same direction at up to 20 kts, but it really wasn’t pushing up an awful lot. There were very tiny little things at Curly and Dee Why, but you needed to be extra keen. Same deal this morning I’d say.

As the day goes along, the wind should push up to around 15-20 kts in the middle part of the day. By dusk it could be 20-30kts. The little NE windswell of yesterday will likely be in the knee to waist high range at exposed spots, so it should be a great day for beginners but not too challenging for intermediate and advanced riders.

I’ll be along a little before 0730 with an update and at around 0730 you’ll hear me talking to Simon Marnie on ABC 702 about the surf prospects for the rest of the day and the week ahead.

Warm and tiny

0650: not much of anything showing at Dee Why this morning.

Hello Friends,
With high tide around mid-morning and no significant change to the energy levels, we’re looking at another day for snorkling, SUPing, swimming, but not really surfing as such. Sydney’s due for a high of around 29 along the beaches (but around 36 out west).

Wind is light and out of the ENE this morning. The forecast calls for it to build up to 20-30 kts this afternoon. This could lead to a slight increase toward dark, but I wouldn’t expect much more than waist high at the biggest spots. Unfortunately they’ll be hard to catch because the period is about 6 seconds. As with yesterday, there’s nowhere along the NSW coast that looks dramatically better than what we’re seeing in Sydney. The periods are maybe a second longer up north, but the average size of the wind chop is the same as down this way.

Ah well, so it goes. Huey will return one day…

Have yourself a good one!

Sydney’s weather in the 1780s-90s

….Horticulture has been attended in some places with tolerable success. At Rose Hill I have seen gardens which, without the assistance of manure, have continued for a short time to produce well grown vegetables. But at Sydney, without constantly dressing the ground, it was in vain to expect them; and with it a supply of common vegetables might be procured by diligence in all seasons. Vines of every sort seem to flourish. Melons, cucumbers and pumpkins run with unbounded luxuriancy, and I am convinced that the grapes of New South Wales will, in a few years, equal those of any other country. That their juice will probably hereafter furnish an indispensable article of luxury at European tables, has already been predicted in the vehemence of speculation. Other fruits are yet in their infancy; but oranges, lemons and figs, (of which last indeed I have eaten very good ones) will, I dare believe, in a few years become plentiful. Apples and the fruits of colder climes also promise to gratify expectation. The banana-tree has been introduced from Norfolk Island, where it grows spontaneously.

Nor will this surprise, if the genial influence of the climate be considered. Placed in a latitude where the beams of the sun in the dreariest season are sufficiently powerful for many hours of the day to dispense warmth and nutrition, the progress of vegetation never is at a stand. The different temperatures of Rose Hill and Sydney in winter, though only twelve miles apart, afford, however, curious matter of speculation. Of a well attested instance of ice being seen at the latter place, I never heard. At the former place its production is common, and once a few flakes of snow fell. The difference can be accounted for only by supposing that the woods stop the warm vapours of the sea from reaching Rose Hill, which is at the distance of sixteen miles inland; whereas Sydney is but four.* Again, the heats of summer are more violent at the former place than at the latter, and the variations incomparably quicker. The thermometer has been known to alter at Rose Hill, in the course of nine hours, more than 50 degrees (Fahrenheit = 10 degrees Celsius) ; standing a little before sunrise at 50 degrees, and between one and two at more than 100 degrees (= 38 degrees Celsius). To convey an idea of the climate in summer, I shall transcribe from my meteorological journal, accounts of two particular days which were the hottest we ever suffered under at Sydney.

[*Look at the journal which describes the expedition in search of the river, said to exist to the southward of Rose Hill. At the time we felt that extraordinary degree of cold were not more than six miles south west of Rose Hill, and about nineteen miles from the the sea coast. When I mentioned this circumstance to colonel Gordon, at the Cape of Good Hope, he wondered at it; and owned, that, in his excursions into the interior parts of Africa, he had never experienced anything to match it: he attributed its production to large beds of nitre, which he said must exist in the neighbourhood.]

December 27th 1790. Wind NNW; it felt like the blast of a heated oven, and in proportion as it increased the heat was found to be more intense, the sky hazy, the sun gleaming through at intervals.

At 9 a.m. 85 degrees At noon 104 Half past twelve 107 1/2 From one p.m. until 20 minutes past two 108 1/2 At 20 minutes past two 109 (= 42 degrees Celsius) At Sunset 89 At 11 p.m. 78 1/2

[By a large Thermometer made by Ramsden, and graduated on Fahrenheits scale.]

December 28th.

At 8 a.m. 86 10 a.m. 93 11 a.m. 101 At noon 103 1/2 Half an hour past noon 104 1/2 At one p.m. 102 At 5 p.m. 73 At sunset 69 1/2

[At a quarter past one, it stood at only 89 degrees, having, from a sudden shift of wind, fallen 13 degrees in 15 minutes.]

My observations on this extreme heat, succeeded by so rapid a change, were that of all animals, man seemed to bear it best. Our dogs, pigs and fowls, lay panting in the shade, or were rushing into the water. I remarked that a hen belonging to me, which had sat for a fortnight, frequently quitted her eggs, and shewed great uneasiness, but never remained from them many minutes at one absence; taught by instinct that the wonderful power in the animal body of generating cold in air heated beyond a certain degree, was best calculated for the production of her young. The gardens suffered considerably. All the plants which had not taken deep root were withered by the power of the sun. No lasting ill effects, however, arose to the human constitution. A temporary sickness at the stomach, accompanied with lassitude and headache, attacked many, but they were removed generally in twenty-four hours by an emetic, followed by an anodyne. During the time it lasted, we invariably found that the house was cooler than the open air, and that in proportion as the wind was excluded, was comfort augmented.

But even this heat was judged to be far exceeded in the latter end of the following February, when the north-west wind again set in, and blew with great violence for three days. At Sydney, it fell short by one degree of what I have just recorded: but at Rose Hill, it was allowed, by every person, to surpass all that they had before felt, either there or in any other part of the world. Unluckily they had no thermometer to ascertain its precise height. It must, however, have been intense, from the effects it produced. An immense flight of bats driven before the wind, covered all the trees around the settlement, whence they every moment dropped dead or in a dying state, unable longer to endure the burning state of the atmosphere. Nor did the perroquettes, though tropical birds, bear it better. The ground was strewn with them in the same condition as the bats.

Were I asked the cause of this intolerable heat, I should not hesitate to pronounce that it was occasioned by the wind blowing over immense deserts, which, I doubt not, exist in a north-west direction from Port Jackson, and not from fires kindled by the natives. This remark I feel necessary, as there were methods used by some persons in the colony, both for estimating the degree of heat and for ascertaining the cause of its production, which I deem equally unfair and unphilosophical. The thermometer, whence my observations were constantly made, was hung in the open air in a southern aspect, never reached by the rays of the sun, at the distance of several feet above the ground.

My other remarks on the climate will be short. It is changeable beyond any other I ever heard of; but no phenomena sufficiently accurate to reckon upon, are found to indicate the approach of alteration. Indeed, for the first eighteen months that we lived in the country, changes were supposed to take place more commonly at the quartering of the moon than at other times. But lunar empire afterwards lost its credit. For the last two years and a half of our residing at Port Jackson, its influence was unperceived. Three days together seldom passed without a necessity occurring for lighting a fire in an evening. A habit dete, or a habit de demi saison, would be in the highest degree absurd. Clouds, storms and sunshine pass in rapid succession. Of rain, we found in general not a sufficiency, but torrents of water sometimes fall. Thunder storms, in summer, are common and very tremendous, but they have ceased to alarm, from rarely causing mischief. Sometimes they happen in winter. I have often seen large hailstones fall. Frequent strong breezes from the westward purge the air. These are almost invariably attended with a hard clear sky. The easterly winds, by setting in from the sea, bring thick weather and rain, except in summer, when they become regular sea-breezes. The aurora australis is sometimes seen, but is not distinguished by superior brilliancy.

To sum up: notwithstanding the inconveniences which I have enumerated, I will venture to assert in few words, that no climate hitherto known is more generally salubrious*, or affords more days on which those pleasures which depend on the state of the atmosphere can be enjoyed, than that of New South Wales. The winter season is particularly delightful.

[*To this cause, I ascribe the great number of births which happened, considering the age and other circumstances, of many of the mothers. Women who certainly would never have bred in any other climate here produced as fine children as ever were born.]

Extract from A Complete Account of the Settlement at Port Jackson

by Watkin Tench 1793

A Complete Account of the Settlement at Port Jackson, in New South Wales, Including an Accurate Description of the Situation of the Colony; and of its Natural Productions; Taken on the Spot (London, 1793; German and Swedish translations)

TG’s surf forecast

Surf forecast issued Friday 30 January 2009: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Small now ??.. Get used to it… But Hey the weather’s nice….

And why finesse with heights…

Sarturday through Friday: pretty much around 1 metre North East more or less.

Water temp is currently around 22, but I’d expect it to start getting a bit cooler after we’ve had a few days of fresh Noreasters.

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for Friday evening
Fine. Light to moderate northeast winds, fresh and gusty near the coast, easing late evening.
Precis: Fine.

Forecast for Saturday
Fine. Mostly sunny. Light to moderate northeast winds, becoming fresh and gusty near the coast in the afternoon.
Precis: Fine. Mostly sunny.

City: Min: 22 Max: 29 Parramatta: Min: 20 Max: 34
Terrey Hills: Min: 20 Max: 30 Penrith: Min: 20 Max: 36
Liverpool: Min: 19 Max: 34 Richmond: Min: 18 Max: 35

UV Alert: 9:20 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Sunday Fine. Mostly sunny.

City: Min: 22 Max: 29
West: Min: 18 Max: 35

Monday Fine. Partly cloudy.

City: Min: 22 Max: 28
West: Min: 19 Max: 33

Tuesday Mostly fine.

City: Min: 22 Max: 29
West: Min: 19 Max: 34

Wednesday Chance shower.

City: Min: 22 Max: 29
West: Min: 19 Max: 35

Thursday Fine.

City: Min: 21 Max: 29
West: Min: 18 Max: 34

Friday Fine.

City: Min: 22 Max: 29
West: Min: 19 Max: 35

Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Strong Wind Warning.
Friday until midnight: Wind: N/NE 20/30 knots, easing to 15/20 knots overnight.Sea: 2 to 3 metres, abating to 1.5 to 2 metres overnight.Swell: E/NE about 1 metre.
Saturday: Wind: NE 15/20 knots increasing to 20/30 knots during the afternoon. Sea: 1.5 to 2 metres rising to 2 to 3 metres.Swell: NE 1 to 1.5 metres.
Sunday Outlook: Wind: E/NE 10/20 knots.
Monday Outlook: Wind: NE increasing to 10/20 knots.

Afternoon update

Hello Friends,

Really not much to report in the way of a change from this morning’s conditions. Things seem to be pretty much as they were then – except we have the expected wind. The numbers out of the MHL Sydney buoy are fairly dismal: east windswell of around a metre at between 5 and 6 seconds apart. Bleah.

Latest wind readings are showing the breeze coming from the NNE to NE at 10-20 kts.

Latest call from the Bureau for Sydney region:

Wind: NE 15/20 knots increasing to 20/30 knots during the afternoon. Sea: 1.5 to 2 metres rising to 2 to 3 metres. Swell: NE 1 to 1.5 metres.