TG’s Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 26 February 2009: Seven day outlook forSydney:

There’ll be waves (but with variable winds and variable quality).

Friday: in the 1-2 metre range South East.

Saturday: ditto.

Sunday: ditto.

Monday: ditto.

Tuesday: 1-2 metre range North East.

Wednesday: ditto.

Thursday: 1-2 metres dead South.

Water temp’s around 23, 24.

Some advice to avoid shark attack, from the Gummint…

AVOID swimming when it’s dark or during twilight hours when sharks are most active and have a sensory advantage.

AVOID waters with known effluent or sewage and areas that are used by recreational or commercial fishers.

AVOID areas with signs of baitfish or fish feeding activity – diving seabirds are a good indicator of such activity.

EXERCISE caution when swimming in water between sandbars or near steep drop offs – these are favourite hangouts for sharks.

Surf Life Saving Australia (SLSA) said that despite the two recent incidents, shark attacks were unlikely if people avoided swimming at dawn or dusk, or in murky water.

It also urged people to swim between the flags, in close proximity to shark safety equipment, not to enter the water when bleeding, and not to swim near schools of fish.

SLSA shark adviser, the CSIRO’s Barry Bruce, said swimmers had a much higher chance of drowning than being mauled by a shark.

“It is important to recognise that there is always some inherent risk when using an environment inhabited by sharks,” Mr Bruce said.

“The risk of shark-related incidents varies according to the time of day, time of year, the geographic location and species of shark in the area.”

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for Friday
Morning drizzle. Becoming mostly sunny in the afternoon. Mostly light southeast winds, turning east to northeast in the afternoon and evening.
Precis: Morning drizzle

City:         Min:  19 Max:  25   Parramatta: Min:  16 Max:  27
Terrey Hills: Min:  16 Max:  23   Penrith:    Min:  16 Max:  29
Liverpool:    Min:  16 Max:  27   Richmond:   Min:  16 Max:  28

UV Alert: 9:20 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Saturday Fine. Mostly sunny.

City:          Min:   18  Max:   29
West:          Min:   16  Max:   34

Sunday Chance shower.

City:          Min:   20  Max:   24
West:          Min:   18  Max:   30

Monday Chance shower.

City:          Min:   20  Max:   24
West:          Min:   19  Max:   26

Tuesday Mostly fine.

City:          Min:   20  Max:   25
West:          Min:   18  Max:   29

Wednesday Chance shower.

City:          Min:   19  Max:   26
West:          Min:   17  Max:   29

Thursday Shower or two.

City:          Min:   18  Max:   23
West:          Min:   15  Max:   23

south-west vancouver island

on wednesday at 4 pm: steady, but tiny lines at our rivermouth point – i drove down through a surprise snowstorm (after weeks of mild weather), expecting something impressive, but found only a lull – expect a sudden turn-around, and much better conditions further down the straits – marine winds at the straits mouth variable, to 15 knots – please stay tuned …..

Curly & Freshy tiny but catchable

Wandered down to Curly and Freshwater for a look around 0900. Was curious to see if they were any better than Dee Why and Collaroy-Narrabeen. They were. But only just. There were five people in the water at mid-Curly, and they were it. Sets were struggling to get to waist high, but the bigger ones had brief moments of something sort of resembling energy.

Around at Freshy, there were quite a few more people in the water and I suppose it was justified because you could pick things up more than 50 metres off the sand (unlike Curly) and kind of glide along in stately fashion for some distance. No power of course, but a shortboard could be used if surfed judiciously.

Still, if your day can’t include surfing, then rest assured, you really haven’t missed much.

Making the most of Curly tinyness around 0900.

Finding a little section amongst the smallness.

Angling into the southerly.

Hello

Your going to have to have a pretty dam good grovell board to have fun out in the surf today, it’s small, messy, windy and the only good thing is it’s really warm in the water!

Narrabeen Rpt

Less than knee-high & weak

Grey skies, nothing but grey skies do I see

Hello Friends,

That muffled thump you heard overnight was Huey falling into a stupor. He started looking under the weather at around lunchtime yesterday when the average period of our little ESE windswell started to drop from a barely adequate 8 seconds. Overnight the power setting has slipped down to 6 seconds. And just to help things along, the primary direction has swung to the south. It’s averaging around a metre at sea, so the best you can hope for will be set waves with faces in the 0.5 to 1 metre.

0715 about the biggest set I saw along the Collaroy Narrabeen stretch.

I checked the Collaroy-Narrabeen stretch first this morning, and the sight was not too inspiring. There didn’t seem to be anyone in the water along the stretch, and for very good reason – there really aren’t any waves. The only thing I saw that looked like a wave was a little baby peak just south of Marquesas. I got a snap of it folding over, but you’d need to have been about 0.5 metre tall to do much with it.

Around the corner at Longy, the situation was just as dire. I didn’t see anything resembling a wave from Dontals-Butterbox to the pole. And from the pole to Dee Why point wasn’t dramatically better. As the picture below shows, it’s just weak and gutless little stuff coming feebily in.

Maybe if you had a kayak or a SUP you could sort of catch one of these.

Here’s the latest from the Bureau:

Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Thursday until midnight: Wind: S/SE 15/20 knots, easing to 10/15 knots later.Sea: 1 to 2 metres. Swell: SE about 1 metre.
Friday: Wind: S/SE 10/15 knots, turning NE 10/15 knots in the afternoon or evening.Sea: about 1 metre. Swell: SE 1 to 1.5 metres.
Saturday: Wind: NW/NE winds 10/15 knots, increasing to 15/20 knots in the afternoon.

Interestingly, the models are suggesting that we could see a slight increase from the south as the day goes along. But since the period is unlikely to improve much, if the swell does pick up, it will be focused on places with the best exposure to the south.

Outlook for the next week remains for marginal to near flat conditions along the east coast. The models show a fairly intense system spinning up in the bight region early next week. If that system does get going, and if it doesn’t get deflected by the trans Tasman high, and if it comes around Tasmania and into our swell window… we could have swell next weekend! I should go into economic forecasting eh?

Have yourself a top old day and go well with your plans.

C C

Showers on the Central Coast this Thursday morning.  The swell is bumpy and rather ordinary at 1 – 2 feet from the southeast.  There is a light to moderate south southeast breeze.  High tide 0955 and low tide around 1615.  Local barometer 1015 hpa, 79% humidity, 20 degrees C.  Have a good one.

Byron Bay Feb 25 / 09

Young James, a very smooth layback cutback. Lumpy surf? Surf smooth!