Interesting outlook

Hello again Friends,

Very interesting trend showing up on the long range forecast models for the east coast this week.

On current reckoning, Saturday looks like being the peak day for the Sydney region. Here’s the map:

Saturday morning forecast

If this plays out, then Sydney should be seeing 4-5 metres at around 11 seconds on Saturday morning.

But…

We’re set to have moderate to strong easterly wind as well. If the models are right, it’ll have been blowing 15-30 kts since Wednesday. Easterlies are of course dreadful, so it could be that we’ll have lots of very big, very stormy waves to watch – but aside, from the usual contingent of crazed persons, nothing to surf.

As you can see from the map, the most intense size will be up the coast from us. The Gold Coast could be copping 7-10 metre 12sec ESE swell with 35-45 kts of SE wind. Interestingly the models say that the Noosa area could see 4-6 m of 12 sec ESE swell and 15-20kts of NE wind. Down toward Byron it’s supposed to be 7-10 metres from the east with 35-50 kts of SE wind. Coastal erosion would appear to be a real prospect.

It’ll be interesting to compare this forecast with what actually transpires. The usual pattern is for the models to err on the high side by a pretty large margin. Knock 40% off those numbers and you’re probably getting closer to what typically plays out. My theory is that the models are biased to the high side on the precautionary principle that it is better to prepare for the worst case than to plan for the best. Y’know, kinda the opposite of what the world’s governments are doing about climate change.

3-4 feet and clean early but wind is picking up

3-4 feet of swell hanging in there with light offshores this morning which is forecast to be eaten up by a strong south easterly and a building swell with Easterly winds all week.  South Curly was the go with North looking  totally messy and unsurfable as usual.  No wonder we’ve been trecking over the hill for the super peak.  Enjoy.

Monday and waves to be had

Hello Friends,

According to the MHL data this morning, Sydney is getting the same amount of energy it was yesterday morning. However, it looks a touch smaller to me at Dee Why. Maybe I was watching in a lull… anyway, set waves are into the head high range, so I don’t think there’d be too many complaints from the goodly size crowd.

It doesn’t look too junky, but that’s doubtless due to the light WNW breeze. According to the Bureau, we’re in for SE’ly wind today, so you’d have to think earlier will be better for just about everywhere. We’re set to have cloudy periods as the day goes along and there’s a chance of a late shower.

Low tide is at 0913 this morning and it’ll be high by 1534.

Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Monday until midnight: Wind: SE 10/15 knots reaching 15/20 knots at times mostly offshore.Sea: 1 to 1.5 metres.Swell: S 2 to 3 metres.
Tuesday: Wind: E/NE 15/20 knots. Sea: about 1.5 metres. Swell: SE about 2 metres.
Wednesday: Wind: E’ly 15/20 knots increasing to 20/30 knots later

Good to see it stacking in on the sets.

Fun size lines at Dee Why beach for the early crew.

Didn't seem to be anyone in the water chasing these at 0730.

.

Avalon to Narrabeen Rpt

Rather different to yesterday, but still swell around in the waist to shoulder high range. Wind currently SW, due to go SE later this morning

C C Overcast

Cloudy, dry and mild on the Central Coast this Monday morning.  The swell is smooth at 2 – 3 feet from the southeast.  There is a light west southwest breeze forecast to go southeast & strengthen later.  Low tide 0915 and high tide around 1535.  Local barometer 1019hpa, 96% humidity, 9 degrees C.  Have a great week.

Byron Bay Today May 17th 2009