Hello again Friends,

Very interesting trend showing up on the long range forecast models for the east coast this week.

On current reckoning, Saturday looks like being the peak day for the Sydney region. Here’s the map:

Saturday morning forecast

If this plays out, then Sydney should be seeing 4-5 metres at around 11 seconds on Saturday morning.

But…

We’re set to have moderate to strong easterly wind as well. If the models are right, it’ll have been blowing 15-30 kts since Wednesday. Easterlies are of course dreadful, so it could be that we’ll have lots of very big, very stormy waves to watch – but aside, from the usual contingent of crazed persons, nothing to surf.

As you can see from the map, the most intense size will be up the coast from us. The Gold Coast could be copping 7-10 metre 12sec ESE swell with 35-45 kts of SE wind. Interestingly the models say that the Noosa area could see 4-6 m of 12 sec ESE swell and 15-20kts of NE wind. Down toward Byron it’s supposed to be 7-10 metres from the east with 35-50 kts of SE wind. Coastal erosion would appear to be a real prospect.

It’ll be interesting to compare this forecast with what actually transpires. The usual pattern is for the models to err on the high side by a pretty large margin. Knock 40% off those numbers and you’re probably getting closer to what typically plays out. My theory is that the models are biased to the high side on the precautionary principle that it is better to prepare for the worst case than to plan for the best. Y’know, kinda the opposite of what the world’s governments are doing about climate change.