Hello Friends,

It looked so promising last night. Lines stretching out and clean, some into the head high plus range… but this morning sees an okay set of numbers from the MHL buoy and perfectly reasonable waves at spots like Dee Why. Swell is out of the south and a couple metres on average (with the odd bigger one in the mix) with an average period of around 9 seconds (again, there is some 12 sec stuff too). It’s not appreciably bigger down at the Batemans Bay and Eden buoys, but the Bureau is still warning of big waves and the models are still calling for a rapid increase in size as the day goes along.

The best plan is to jump in early if possible because the wind outlook is not too inspiring. By lunchtime it could be SE and this afternoon then could be wandering around through the easterly quarters as it drifts around to the NE later.

The models are pointing toward the swell getting into the 3 metre range by early afternoon and then dropping back a touch for tomorrow, but staying around through to Sunday morning. Our big issue will be the usual afternoon onshore annoyance and the dead south swell direction which will tend to clump us together in the few good spots.

Looking into the middle of next week, it’s good to see that there’s another brief pulse on the cards but conditions otherwise look fairly so-so.

I plan to get out and about with a camera today and tomorrow, so expect a few more piccies along the lines of the gallery below…

Tides today: L @0920, H @1600

Weather Situation from the Aust Bureau of Meterology

A trough in the southern Tasman is moving east while a strong high is centred southwest of the Bight. A strong pressure gradient between these two systems is resulting in fresh to strong southwesterly winds along the NSW coast, tending to gale force in the far south. As the trough moves further east towards New Zealand today, conditions will gradually ease, with sea breezes developing late afternoon about parts of the central and southern coasts, although strong southwesterly winds will persist for longer in the far south.

An increasing southerly swell in the wake of the recent Tasman low is expected to develop along the NSW coast during today, then gradually decrease over the weekend.
Forecast for Friday until midnight

Winds: Southwesterly 15 to 25 knots tending southeast to southwesterly up to 15 knots around midday then tending east to northeasterly up to 10 knots by early evening. Winds tending northeast to northwesterly up to 15 knots later in the evening. Seas: Up to 3 metres decreasing below 1.5 metres during the morning then decreasing to below 1 metre during the afternoon. Swell: Southerly 3 to 4 metres. Large swells breaking dangerously close inshore.
Forecast for Saturday

Winds: Southwesterly 5 to 15 knots tending south to southeasterly up to 10 knots during the afternoon then tending south to southwesterly later in the evening. Seas: Below 1 metre. Swell: Southerly 3 to 4 metres. Large swells breaking dangerously close inshore.
Forecast for Sunday

Winds: Southeasterly 5 to 15 knots. Seas: Below 1 metre. Swell: Southerly 2 to 3 metres.

Hello Friends,

After a definite perk in size yesterday afternoon late, the energy levels have dropped back to smallish this morning. That said, I did see a couple set waves at Dee Why that were in the chest high range. You just had to be very patient. The MHL Sydney buoy is showing around 1.5 metres of 9 second period south swell. With luck the Bureau’s call for a steady increase will become apparent as the day unfolds because we’re set to have reasonable west to sw wind through to evening.

The big stuff is still very much on the radar, but I’m not too stoked about the wind outlook for tomorrow. Basically the Bureau says it’ll be all over the place, starting out s-sw, going s-se (blergh), then tracking around east before maybe being ne at dusk. Meanwhile, the swell is set to ramp up into the 4 metre range from the south. Let’s hope the wind call is unduly pessimistic.

Swell is set to drop back on Saturday into the two metre-ish range but to stick at that level right through to Tuesday morning.

Can’t complain about that, now can we?

Go well with your day and keep on smilin’

Weather Situation from the Australian Bureau of Meterology

A low in far southern Tasman is moving east while a strong high lies over the western Bight. A strong pressure gradient between these two systems is resulting in fresh to strong southwesterly winds along the NSW coast, tending to gale force in the far south. As the low moves further east towards New Zealand on Friday, conditions will generally ease, although strong southwesterly winds will persist for longer in the far south.

A heavy southerly swell in a wake of the Tasman low is likely to develop along NSW coast by Friday, then decrease on Saturday.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Winds: West to southwesterly 20 to 25 knots tending westerly 20 to 30 knots by early evening. Seas: 1.5 to 2 metres increasing to 2 to 3 metres by early evening. Swell: Southerly 1.5 to 3 metres. Large swells breaking dangerously close inshore in the evening.

Forecast for Friday
Winds: West to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots tending south to southwesterly 10 to 20 knots during the morning then tending south to southeasterly up to 15 knots during the afternoon. Winds tending east to northeasterly up to 10 knots by early evening then tending north to northwesterly up to 15 knots later in the evening. Seas: Up to 3 metres decreasing to 2 metres around dawn then decreasing to below 1 metre around midday. Swell: Southerly 3 metres increasing to 4 metres from the late morning. Large swells breaking dangerously close inshore.

Forecast for Saturday
Winds: West to southwesterly 5 to 15 knots tending south to southwesterly up to 10 knots during the evening. Seas: Below 1 metre. Swell: Southerly 3 to 4 metres decreasing to 2 to 3 metres from midday. Large swells breaking dangerously close inshore in the early morning.