Padang. 5pm Saturday 30 October 2010 – Mentawai Tsunami Situation Report #5

A massive storm has moved into the Mentawai region making tsunami relief work even more difficult – and life more miserable for the local villagers who are living in makeshift shelters.

The storm is forecast to last up to four days and is creating hazardous ocean conditions – for both the 150-kilometre crossing from Padang and access to the isolated villages.

The latest report from the government command post in Sikakap, the main town in the Southern Mentawai, says that 23,087 people are now either displaced from their homes or affected by the tsunami.

The death toll from the earthquake and tsunami is now more than 400 and it is rising with more than 300 people missing. A further 270 people are seriously injured.

“I am so proud of our staff and their round-the-clock commitment.
The risks they are taking inspire all of us on.” – Dr Dave Jenkins

SurfAid staff unload shelter kits with the villagers at Kinumbuk, on the west coast of Pagai Selatan – the closest Mentawai island to the epicentre of the earthquake. Photo: Stacey Howe/SurfAid

Today SurfAid’s Emergency Response team in Padang made the decision to hire the largest boat in the Mentawai fleet, the Indies Trader IV, so that we can continue operations in the worsening ocean conditions.

SurfAid founder Dr Dave Jenkins said that the New Zealand Government has agreed to fund both the boat and the emergency supplies on board. And Indies Trader owner Martin Daly has donated the Indies Trader III to the relief operation.

“We are spending US$50,000 a day and we will need well over
$1.5 million dollars to complete this first phase mission.”
- Dr Dave Jenkins

The storm is making relief efforts even more difficult.

Weather-permitting, both boats are due to leave Padang tonight. The Indies Trader III will head to Sipora Island and the villages of Gobik and Bosua, near the surf break Bintangs. Both villages were severely hit by the tsunami, which was reported there as being six metres (20 feet) high. The villages lie at the bottom of the island, directly in the path of raging tsunami which struck in the darkness of Monday night at about 10pm – 20 minutes after the 7.7 magnitude undersea earthquake.

The Indies Trader IV will travel to the east coast of North Pagai and the southwest and southeastern tip of South Pagai where SurfAid teams will deliver emergency supplies to villages. On board are 2000 large tarpaulins, 3000 mosquito nets, 1000 hygiene kits, 1000 building kits, 1 tonne of rice, 24,000 packets of noodles, and medical supplies. The boat will pick up SurfAid staff from Sikakap, including medical teams.

SurfAid Command Post Liaison Manager Asrial, ASEAN Assessment Team (in red shirts) and SurfAid Program Director Dr Alan Rogerson, head off to the Mentawai Islands.

SurfAid founder Dr Dave Jenkins said today the organisation continues to escalate its response to the tsunami despite appalling and worsening conditions.

“The extremely isolated villages are surrounded by coral reefs with large Indian Ocean swells continuously washing over them. Behind the small villages is dense tropical jungle with no roads and no phones,” Dr Jenkins said.

You can donate via our website – www.surfaidinternational.org

Hello Friends,

There are some very small east wind swell waves along Sydney’s shore. You’ll need your most bouyant craft because the biggest ones are struggling to hit the knee high mark. Not much wind as the morning got started, but the call is for it to be going pretty stiffly from the NE by this afternoon. From the shape of the models I’d guess there would be a chance of something more impressive size-wise toward dusk at places that can handle the wind.

The long range forecasts of a week or so ago got it reasonably right about today, so I’m quietly confident that they’ve picked it for the next three days as well. If it all unfolds as the super computers reckon it will, we should see reasonable size, but short period, ENE swell by tomorrow morning. As Sunday goes along, the models say we can expect the periods to get longer and therefore we should also see a marked improvement by Monday morning at east swell spots that like wind out of the westerly quarters (ie everywhere!).

On current reckoning it looks as though the swell will peak at some point on Monday but it should be fun and quite good through Tuesday. The call is for a couple metres at the peak with periods in the 10 second range. That could translate into two metre plus faces on the bigger ones, so here’s hoping that we’re looking at a proper pulse for the new week!

TIDES: L@ 0645 H@ 1315

Weather Situation
A high near New Zealand extends a ridge to the New South Wales north coast. Northerly winds are increasing along the coast a low pressure trough over the state’s west slowly approaches. The trough is expected to bring a southerly change to the southern coast early Monday, extending to northern parts during Tuesday.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Winds: Northerly 10 to 20 knots tending northeasterly 20 to 30 knots in the afternoon. Seas: 1 to 2 metres increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the afternoon. Swell: Easterly below 1 metre.

Forecast for Sunday
Winds: North to northeasterly 20 to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 25 knots during the morning then decreasing to 10 to 20 knots later in the evening. Seas: Up to 3 metres decreasing to 2 metres around midday. Swell: Easterly 1 to 2 metres. The chance of thunderstorms inshore from the late morning, extending throughout in the afternoon and evening.

Forecast for Monday
Winds: Northwest to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots tending southerly during the morning then increasing to 10 to 20 knots during the afternoon. Winds increasing to southerly 20 to 30 knots during the evening. Seas: Below 1 metre increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon then increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the evening. Swell: Easterly 2 metres.

And, just for fun… it was much bigger than Sydney on Lake Michigan a couple days ago thanks to a massive low pressure system over Chicago…

Hello Friends,

Swell period has bumped up a touch this morning and it’s gone toward the east as expected. But the average size at sea is, if anything, a little smaller than yesterday (a bit under a metre).

Not much wind about for those chasing the waist high bomb sets as the day got started. but it’s set to go nor’east by this afternoon.

Gotta run, so will have to leave my thoughts for the outlook until later on today.

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the Southern Tasman Sea extends a ridge to eastern New South Wales. Northerly winds are expected to increase along the coast later Friday as a low pressure trough deepens and moves to western NSW.

Forecast for Friday until midnight
Winds: East to northeasterly 5 to 10 knots becoming northeasterly 10 to 15 knots around midday then increasing to 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon. Winds increasing to northeasterly 20 to 25 knots by early evening. Seas: Below 1 metre increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres by early evening. Swell: Easterly 1 metre.

Forecast for Saturday
Winds: North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots becoming northeasterly up to 30 knots around midday. Seas: 1 to 2 metres increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the afternoon. Swell: Easterly 1 metre.

Forecast for Sunday
Winds: North to northeasterly 20 to 30 knots becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 knots during the afternoon then decreasing to 15 to 20 knots during the evening. Seas: Up to 3 metres decreasing to 2 metres during the afternoon. Swell: Easterly 1 to 2 metres. Isolated thunderstorms from midday.

The next

Hello Friends,

Probably the less said about this morning at Dee Why, the better. Only a weak little metre of south windswell getting knocked about by an unfriendly and steady SSE wind of 15-2kts is getting into the place. Throw in a high tide at around 1120 and gloomy skies and you’re looking at another day t test a surfer’s resolve. It looks likely that the surf conditions will continue in this direction through the day.

Outlook for the next few days is still about where it was yesterday, ie marginal. The dominant swell direction is set to move more to the east today and then to pretty much stay that way over the coming week. Average periods are expected to bounce around in the 7-8 second range with wave heights at best exposed spots bumping about in the metre range give or take a bit.

At this stage it looks as though we might get some fun morning waves (waist to chest plus) early next week. The overall pattern showing in the long range forecasts is for a generally east windswell regime across next week in Sydney. Here’s hoping…

Go well with your day!

Weather Situation

A trough and associated weak southerly change lies on the Mid North Coast and will move further north today. A high near Tasmania will move into the Southern Tasman Sea today and extend a ridge northwards along the NSW coast. By Friday winds will turn north to northeasterly along the coast, strengthening in the south later.
Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Winds: South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending east to southeasterly up to 10 knots later in the evening. Seas: Up to 1.5 metres. Swell: Easterly 1 metre.
Forecast for Friday

Winds: Northeasterly and light increasing to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots around midday then increasing to 15 to 25 knots during the afternoon. Seas: Below 1 metre increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres by early evening. Swell: Easterly 1 metre.
Forecast for Saturday

Winds: Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots during the afternoon. Seas: 1 to 1.5 metres increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon. Swell: Easterly 1 metre
-Commonwealth of Australia 2010, Bureau of Meteorology

.