AFTERNOON UPDATE: Average period is up to nearly 8 seconds and the south swell is around the two metre mark out at the MHL buoy as Monday finishes up. The wind was still going pretty hard though. As a consequence the ocean is messy even in a semi-protected corner such as Dee Why. That hasn’t put off a goodly size crew. They’re jagging waist to chest high plus windswell waves for their efforts. Winds tomorrow morning should be out of the westerly quarters, so with luck this stuff won’t die away overnight and we’ll have a bit more quality… have a great evening!

Hello Friends,

Not the most fabulous morning out there it has to be said. I managed to grab a snap of the situation at Dee Why before another bout of showers. Only a couple bods in the water chasing the two metre short period (@7sec) south swell. Wind was out of the south to SSW at 15-20 kts as the day got started, so it should keep the swell energy at around the same level or even possibly push it up a bit. The Bureau’s call is for the wind to settle more into the south as we go along, so that will keep the surf option list pretty short for Sydneysiders – unless you don’t mind onshore conditions.

The drizzle and showers should gradually clear as the day goes along and by tomorrow we’re expected to have mostly sunny conditions with NW wind. Hmmm… if the windswell doesn’t die away overnight, tomorrow could possibly have a few surfable options in the north corners. Tide will be high toward 1000 on Tuesday, so a dawn patrol might be on the cards.

The outlook remains for a good week of small to near flat short period windswell. According to the models, the trend is for the energy to move from the present southerly direction around to the east. Long range forecasts for mid next week are currently showing a potentially juicy east swell arriving (head high plus). I’ll be keeping an eye on developments in the seas north and northwest of NZ with great interest. Apparently the la nina is likely to deliver more rainy, stormy weather this summer and that could also mean more intense and frequent cyclone activity. As long as it’s not as dire as last summer!

Have yourself a great Monday!

Coastal Waters Forecast for New South Wales
Sydney Coast: Broken Bay to Port Hacking

Issued at 4:51 am EDT on Monday 25 October 2010
for the period until midnight EDT Wednesday 27 October 2010.
Weather Situation

A southerly has reached Point Danger, while a small weak low has developed to the east of the Sydney coast. This is expected to result in fresh to strong southwest to southeast winds along central parts of the coast today. A weak cold front is expected to extend northwards along the coast on Wednesday.
Forecast for Monday until midnight

Winds: Southeast to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots tending southerly 20 to 25 knots by early evening then tending south to southwesterly 10 to 20 knots later in the evening. Seas: 2 metres increasing to 3 metres during the morning. Swell: Southeasterly about 1 metre.
Forecast for Tuesday

Winds: Northwesterly 5 to 15 knots tending north to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots by early evening. Seas: Below 1 metre increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres later in the evening. Swell: Southeasterly about 1.5 metres.
Forecast for Wednesday

Winds: North to northwesterly about 10 knots tending westerly during the morning then tending south to southeasterly up to 15 knots during the afternoon. Seas: Below 1 metre. Swell: Southeasterly about 1 metre.

This page was created at 07:42 on Monday 25 October 2010 (AEDT)

© Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2010, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533 532)

Hello Friends,

Too rainy to take a picture yet this morning, but given the rainy skies and steady SSE wind, I don’t think we’re missing much. Swell is showing as a touch over 2 metres at sea. It’s out of the south but the average period is only about 7 seconds.

The Bureau says the wind will back off later, but not by much. They also reckon the swell’s going to swing to the east too.

Once the rain lifts, I’ll grab a snap for ya. In the meantime, it looks like an excellent morning to have stayed in bed.

Have a good one!

Weather Situation from the Bureau

A southerly change will extend to New South Wales north coast by Sunday afternoon and a weak trough will develop off the north coast tonight or early Monday. Another weak southerly change is expected to develop on the south coast during Tuesday.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight

Winds: Southerly 20 to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots during the morning. Seas: Up to 3 metres decreasing to 1.5 metres around midday. Swell: Easterly about 1 metre increasing to 1.5 metres this afternoon and evening.

Forecast for Monday

Winds: South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending east to southeasterly about 10 knots later in the evening. Seas: Below 1 metre. Swell: Southeasterly about 1.5 metres.

Forecast for Tuesday

Winds: Northeast to northwesterly 5 to 10 knots tending north to northeasterly up to 15 knots during the afternoon. Seas: Below 1 metre. Swell: Southerly 1 metre.

Hello Friends,

As expected, it’s very tiny this morning. I didn’t see anything above waist high in an inspection of Collaroy-Narrabeen and Dee Why-Longy stretches. It was glassy and the skies were clear (despite the call last night for showers this morning). Your best bet for a wave is going to be at your fave south swell location. Get out early because the wind is going to pick up and we’ll have a chance of showers from midday.

Tomorrow looks pretty ordinary with the call being for powering southerly wind and not much in the way of swell. Lovely.

Long range outlook for the Sydney region suggests we might see a slight uptick into the chest high range toward the end of the week, but at this stage it doesn’t look more interesting than that. Wish it was otherwise, but what can ya do?

Have a great day anyway, that’s what!

Go well.

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea is slowly moving towards New Zealand maintaining a ridge to New South wales north coast. A cold front will bring southerly change to the south coast this morning extending to the central coast in the evening and to the north coast Sunday morning before weakening into a trough off the far north coast. Another weak southerly change is expected to develop on the south coast during Tuesday.
Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Winds: North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending northwesterly by early evening then tending southwesterly up to 30 knots later in the evening. Seas: Below 1 metre. Swell: Easterly 0.5 metres. The chance of thunderstorms from midday.
Forecast for Sunday

Winds: Southerly 20 to 30 knots becoming 20 to 25 knots during the morning then decreasing to 15 to 20 knots by early evening. Seas: Up to 3 metres decreasing to 2 metres during the morning. Swell: Northeasterly about 1 metre tending easterly 1.5 metres in the afternoon and evening.
Forecast for Monday

Winds: Southerly 10 to 15 knots tending east to southeasterly about 10 knots during the evening. Seas: Below 1 metre. Swell: Southeasterly about 1.5 metres.