Found this on the BoM site…
Seasonal Outlook for Tropical Cyclones
For the full Australian region, there is a high degree of confidence that the total number of tropical cyclones will be above average (see Table 1). The forecast values from the two models (20-22) are significantly higher than the long-term average value of 12.
Table 1 Forecast values for the 2010/11 Seasonal Outlook for Tropical Cyclones (TCs) for the four main tropical cyclone regions and the northwest WA sub-region (105°E to 130°E).
Region Chance of more TCs than average Likely number of TCs (average number) Confidence (LEPS skill1)
Australian region 98% 20-22 (12) High (46%)
Western region 93% 11-12 (7) High (31%)
Northern region 67% 5 (4) Low (3%)
Eastern region 87% 6-7 (4) Moderate (21%)
Northwest WA 75% 7-8 (6) Low (7%)
The likely number of tropical cyclones is indicative only. It is expected that the total number of tropical cyclones will be in the vicinity of the values listed, and not necessarily within the given range. The values are the most likely number of tropical cyclones forecast by two models.
Regional features
The largest increase in tropical cyclone numbers is expected to occur in the Western region, where 11-12 tropical cyclones are forecast (4-5 more than the average value of 7 tropical cyclones).
For the Northern region, an average to higher than average number of tropical cyclones is expected with 5 tropical cyclones being forecast (the average value is 4 tropical cyclones). However, as the statistical model used to produce this forecast has low skill in this region, this prediction should be used with some caution.
The Eastern region is expected to experience a higher than average number of tropical cyclones, with about 6-7 tropical cyclones being forecast (the average value is 4 tropical cyclones).
The outlook for tropical cyclones in the area from 105°E to 130°E, where tropical cyclones can impact upon coastal WA communities, shows a 75% chance of above average tropical cyclone numbers for the 2010/11 season. However, forecast confidence for this region is relatively low.
This outlook covers the period from July 2010 to June 2011. Most tropical cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere occur from November until April.
