Fun waves

There were some fun little peaky wind swell waves at Long Reef this morning.  Quite a few guys surfing in nice clean conditions early.  Swell from the  SSE about 2 foot waist to some chest high sets.  Wind expected to turn NE later.  H 10.20am L 5pm  Enjoy Surf Photos of You

Curly/Freshy Rpt

Anything from knee to shoulder high depending on the set, only a handful out at daybreak and was looking reasonably glassy too. Power might be an issue though

Where’s The Waves, In Byron Bay Today.

When’s the swell going to pick up, where’s the waves, when’s it going the start breaking, in Byron Bay today? Seems that’s the question on everyone’s lips wherever we went in the bay today. Of course the truth is it hasn’t really been that flat for that long. Just check our archives and you’ll see we did have waves last week in the bay. When Huey hits the off switch it’s usually done in a big way, but luckily if you look hard enough you soon find there’s still a few little waves for those that want to play. As for the question on when, well I’m not Huey, and I don’t claim to know when, but I’ll hazard a guess that we may just start to see a little increased wave activity over the next twenty four hours, In Byron Bay Today.

BoM: Could be a busy Tropical Cyclone season

Found this on the BoM site…

Seasonal Outlook for Tropical Cyclones

For the full Australian region, there is a high degree of confidence that the total number of tropical cyclones will be above average (see Table 1). The forecast values from the two models (20-22) are significantly higher than the long-term average value of 12.

Table 1 Forecast values for the 2010/11 Seasonal Outlook for Tropical Cyclones (TCs) for the four main tropical cyclone regions and the northwest WA sub-region (105°E to 130°E).

Region Chance of more TCs than average Likely number of TCs (average number) Confidence (LEPS skill1)

Australian region 98% 20-22 (12) High (46%)

Western region 93% 11-12 (7) High (31%)

Northern region 67% 5 (4) Low (3%)

Eastern region 87% 6-7 (4) Moderate (21%)

Northwest WA 75% 7-8 (6) Low (7%)

The likely number of tropical cyclones is indicative only. It is expected that the total number of tropical cyclones will be in the vicinity of the values listed, and not necessarily within the given range. The values are the most likely number of tropical cyclones forecast by two models.

Regional features

The largest increase in tropical cyclone numbers is expected to occur in the Western region, where 11-12 tropical cyclones are forecast (4-5 more than the average value of 7 tropical cyclones).

For the Northern region, an average to higher than average number of tropical cyclones is expected with 5 tropical cyclones being forecast (the average value is 4 tropical cyclones). However, as the statistical model used to produce this forecast has low skill in this region, this prediction should be used with some caution.

The Eastern region is expected to experience a higher than average number of tropical cyclones, with about 6-7 tropical cyclones being forecast (the average value is 4 tropical cyclones).

The outlook for tropical cyclones in the area from 105°E to 130°E, where tropical cyclones can impact upon coastal WA communities, shows a 75% chance of above average tropical cyclone numbers for the 2010/11 season. However, forecast confidence for this region is relatively low.

This outlook covers the period from July 2010 to June 2011. Most tropical cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere occur from November until April.

via Seasonal Outlook for Tropical Cyclones.

Mitch Crews dealing with AS – and still surfing

(Press release)

Australia’s number one junior surfer shares his pain

Few would describe chronic spinal pain as a “blessing in disguise,” but these are the words Mitch Crews uses to describe his ankylosing spondylitis (AS).
The 20-year-old professional surfer was diagnosed with AS in November 2009 after having experienced “continuous and annoying pain” in his lower back, wrists and ankles.
“I had symptoms for a good month-and-a-half until I actually considered it might be something serious,” explains Crews.
“I didn’t have symptoms other than swelling and pain in the joints, but I did feel exhausted and lacking in energy. I also had a lot of trouble sleeping from the discomfort,” he recounts.
“I was very upset when the doctor told me it was AS and that it was serious, as I thought I wasn’t going to be able to surf anymore and surfing is my whole life.”
Mitch describes his AS as: “throbbing, deep pain,” and explains that during a flare-up; “it constantly hurts and every time I move, it gets worse.”
The initial shock of his diagnosis has been overshadowed by an overwhelming determination to pursue his dreams despite living with AS- the young gun is currently Australia’s number one ranked junior surfer.
As many people living with AS find, Mitch says living an active lifestyle is crucial to beating his AS pain.
“Being active keeps you feeling mobile, which is why I find surfing so great. I also practice yoga to keep me flexible and loosen the joints,” he says.
So, why the blessing in disguise?
“I really look after my health and fitness a lot more than I used to,” Mitch enthuses, “and I am fitter and stronger than I ever have been in the past!”
Mitch is an inspiration to people living with AS, not only for his dedication to keep surfing against the odds, but also because of his upbeat attitude.
“AS is something I, and many others have to deal with. You can live a normal and happy life if you just change a few things around: I am a clear example of that. You just need to be flexible and positive to make it easier on yourself and your AS,” he explains.
Mitch also considers himself lucky in that his friends and family have played a “huge part” in fighting his AS.
“I have regular check-ups just to see how I’m going,” he says, “and anyone else experiencing chronic spinal pain or who thinks they may have AS should definitely get themselves looked at by a GP immediately. Doing nothing about it will not help the situation.”
According to Dr Louis McGuigan, president of the Australian Rheumatology Association, like Mitch, many Aussie men could have much more than a ‘bad back’ and without proper diagnosis could have serious consequences.
“Mitch was smart in seeking help early so he can now control his condition rather than it controlling him. But you don’t have to be a professional sportsman to take action. It is imperative anyone with persistent back pain sees a GP and asks if they need a referral to a rheumatologist,” said Dr McGuigan.

About Mitch Crews’ condition – ankylosing spondylitis (AS):
AS is three times more common in men than women. It causes inflammation and pain in the spine and other joints including the shoulders, hips, knees, ankles, chest and back. If left untreated, AS can lead to permanent stiffening of the spine and in severe cases, the bones in the spine can fuse together, stopping movement and causing a permanently forward-stooping posture. It is estimated that as many as 200,000 Australians have been diagnosed with the condition.
Dr Louis McGuigan’s advice to men living with spinal pain:
“If you are experiencing back pain, look out for particular hot spots where the pain is coming from – such as the shoulders, the base of the spine or the middle of your back (the lumbar vertebrae). Being able to detect where the pain is coming from will help your doctor determine a diagnosis.
“The best way to manage back pain, alongside treatment, is through regular physical activity. Being active tends to help keep the pain under control. It is important that you discuss with your doctor what types of exercises are best for you to start as soon as possible,” added Dr McGuigan.
Issued by Cube on behalf of Arthritis Australia.

Abbott Australasia proudly supported Arthritis Australia to conduct this awareness campaign with an untied educational grant.

Interviews available with: Mitch Crews and Dr Louis McGuigan, president of the Australian Rheumatology Association.

For further information contact:
Prudence Buxton on 02 9578 2053 / 0423 314 648 / prue@cube.com.au
Kylie Whetton on 02 9578 2052 / 0413 061 122 / kylie@cube.com.au

There yesterday, gone today, tomorrow ??

I was chatting to a surfer down at Longy this morning he said that Suck Up was going off at around 9am yesterday.  Over head high easily.  Sorry to tell you, this morning that is old news and we are back to slop.  2 to may be 3 foot with a strong SE wind chopping it up.  Swell from the SE making the inside bombie break and thats where all the action, (if you could call it that) is.  Swell forecast to drop but tomorrow there maybe a WSW wind early.  Enjoy Surf Photos of You.

Back to tinyness, sorry Sydney

Hello Friends,

Coming on to a high tide at 0830, the waves of Sydney were once again marginal thanks to a much diminished south swell and a less than delectable serving of SSE wind to go with it. Biggest set wave I saw was around the waist high mark. Not all that appetizing it has to be said.

The trend is downward across the next 24 hours, so those who are desperate should get out there now. The next little pulse is supposed to arrive on Christmas eve, but it’s not likely to be much more dramatic than what we had this morning.

According to the latest run of the models, the pattern of the last couple months seems likely to continue. Swell energy is heading up the Tasman alright, but it’s well out to sea, so we aren’t likely to see much of interest. With luck, we’ll get the odd little uptick to justify getting wet along the way.

Have yourself a good one!

Weather Situation

A deep low pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea is moving steadily southeast, while a high south of the Bight extends a weak ridge into New South Wales. As the ridge becomes dominant, onshore winds will develop today. A cold front passing to the south will bring a southerly change to the southern and central coasts during Thursday, while a trough develops off the northern coast. Another southerly change is likely to develop later on the weekend.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Winds: Southwest to southeasterly 5 to 15 knots, reaching 20 knots at times. Seas: Below 1 metre increasing up to 1.5 metres during the morning. Swell: Southerly about 1.5 metres.

Forecast for Thursday

Winds: North to northeasterly 10 to 20 knots decreasing below 15 knots around dawn then tending east to northeasterly up to 10 knots around midday. Winds tending southeasterly 10 to 15 knots later in the evening. Seas: Up to 1.5 metres. Swell: Southerly 1 metre.

Forecast for Friday

Winds: South to southeasterly 10 to 20 knots tending east to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the evening. Seas: 1 to 1.5 metres increasing up to 2 metres during the morning. Swell: Southeasterly about 1.5 metres.

Login, In Byron Bay Today.

Yeah it was logs, groms and heaps of holiday swimmers as the sun came out, but the swell failed to appear, in Byron Bay today. A glorious day none the less, the holiday makers were out in force, car parks were going at premium rates and folks were all feeling pretty good about the stringing beauty of it all in the bay. The waves were tiny but kind of fun for a log run, the BBQ’s were sizzling franticly, kids were playing and despite the underlying sadness of losing yet another of the local crew. Folks turned up, logged in, and made the most of cracking day, In Byron Bay Today.

Lunar eclipse pic

Joined a handful of our fellow Collaroy Plateaueans for a squiz at the lunar eclipse just after sunset this evening. Kinda cool actually!

Longy this morning

Hello Friends,

Went for a splash this morning at Long Reef with lots of other fine folk. Gee it was busy out there. Quite a wait for the decent size sets and although they were into the chest to head high range, there was a lot of softness going on thanks to the high tide. Water’s still kinda cool and the gusty SW wind reinforced the point. A shout out to the amazingly friendly chap whom I brutally ran over. Such sunny cheerfulness in the face of such abject incompetence (first time I’ve done that in decades).

They switched the data back on at MHL and we can now see that the swell went south at about midnight and got up to about the 2 metre mark at close to 10 seconds. It’s now dropped back a touch in both departments, so the predicted weakening is already underway – apparently. Still, with any luck, there should be some little ones around at south swell spots again tomorrow morning. Unfortunately, the Bureau says we can expect onshores from the SE to NE from daybreak (going to the NW by evening though…)

After I got out of the water, I grabbed my camera and took a few shots for my galleries. If you end up wanting to buy one from any of my galleries, then enter the coupon code HAPPYSURF and it will take 33% off the bottom line for ya. Enjoy!

To get a picture from the gallery
Go to the picture you like, click on it so that you see the big version, then look up top left for the button that says “Add to Cart” and click on that.
Click on the size you want.
And then, if you just want the one, click on “Add and Checkout” at the bottom of the window – or if you want another, click on “Add to Cart” and go back to select another.