Wha? Where’s the big swell

Hello Friends,

Glorious morning, but the Bureau and the models were too hopeful. There are some small south lines about the place but they were being swamped by the 0745 high tide when I first checked. The low will be along at 1430, so surf conditions ought to improve a little, but from what I was seeing, this morning around 0700, I wouldn’t be overly hopeful of amazingness. Sets at the more exposed spots were around the waist to chest high mark, so once the tide runs out, there should be the odd fun one about. However, the Bureau’s call for south swell into the 2.5 metre range seems unsupported by the evidence. (Can’t give you the precise swell data as the MHL data stalled late last night and hasn’t updated since).

Like everyone else, I’m pretty keen, so I’ll be wandering around looking for something worth the effort too. Of course if I come up with any more pics, youy’ll find them right here later today. With luck the swell will push up closer to the predictions before the wind swings around to the easterly quarters this afternoon.

The longer range outlook is for the energy to gradually fade back to near flatness by Thursday afternoon in Sydney. Thereafter, the models suggest that we’ll bump along in small to flat conditions into next week.

Go forth and enjoy your day and stay happy one and all.

Weather Situation

A deep low pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea is moving steadily southeast, while a high south of the Bight extends a weak ridge into New South Wales. Coastal winds are easing as this ridge becomes dominant, with onshore winds developing again by Wednesday. A cold front passing to the south will bring a southerly change to the southern and central coasts during Thursday, while a trough develops off the northern coast. Another southerly change is likely to develop later on the weekend.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight

Winds: Westerly 15 to 25 knots tending southeast to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots later in the afternoon. Seas: Up to 2 metres decreasing to below 1 metre by early evening. Swell: Southerly around 2 metres, reaching 3 metres offshore at first, decreasing to 1 to 2 metres later.

Forecast for Wednesday

Winds: Southeasterly 5 to 15 knots tending east to northeasterly around midday then becoming northeasterly 10 to 20 knots by early evening. Seas: Below 1 metre increasing up to 1.5 metres by early evening. Swell: Southerly about 2 metres decreasing to 1 metre late in the evening.

Forecast for Thursday

Winds: Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots tending north to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the morning then tending easterly during the evening. Seas: Up to 1.5 metres. Swell: Southerly 1 metre.

Swell on its way up.

I woke to find some fairly decent swell down here at Lake Conjola.  The beach is about 4 foot+ and from the SE but at times is a little straight.  I couldn’t see Green Island for the sun and I cant get over there to take a decent pic because of the lake opening but it seems to have waves but coming in from a few different directions and not lining up properly.  But anyway its on its up the coast.  Wind is still offshore from the west but is only light early.  Enjoy Surf Photos of You.

Shire Rpt

My untrained eye thinks there could be something off a reef up the Kurnell end of the beach. Meanwhile, Wanda and Elouera aren’t up to much, that bank at The Alley has an already crowded waist-high wave, nowt at the Point, a ruffle of white water at the Island, and half a dozen bods on punchy little stuff at Shoes

Dee Why: Wintery here, but check this out…

Nothing to write about in Dee Why this morning. Flat as and howling westerlies making it feel more like May and December. Received these photos from my old friend Stu in Virginia who I used to hang around with in the 70′s in America.

Like me, Stu hates crowds–so, what better time to avoid the crowds and go to the beach in America? December! Stu and his wife did a drive from Virginia to Deleware. Here’s what they found…

Not breaking at all.

We have strong SWrs down here at Lake Conjola.  It has blown the already small 2 foot down to an under 1 foot shore break.  So all I can say is… there is no surf.   Enjoy, Surf Photos of You

Beautiful settings, shame about the utter lack of swell this morning

Hello Friends,

If you’re in Sydney, you won’t be surprised to hear that it snowed at Jindabyne this morning. Almost the longest day of the year, and it was a wintry 13 to start off today.

And, as the pictures show, there was absolutely nothing happening this morning. Not even a hint, not the barest suggestion of anything even faintly resembling a wave.

The low pressure system responsible for the brisk start and the strong offshores is also set to deliver us a brief pulse of energy overnight and into tomorrow morning. The Bureau is calling for it to get into the four metre range briefly, but to drop off steadily through the day and to be back to small by Wednesday morning.

I’ll try to check in with an update again later, particularly if any sign of the swell appears on the offshore buoys down south.

Have yourself a top old day one and all!

Weather Situation

A complex low pressure system to the east of Tasmania will deepen today before moving rapidly to the southeast on Tuesday. Behind the low a weak high pressure ridge is expected to develop over the New South Wales and the Tasman Sea.

Forecast for Monday until midnight

Winds: Westerly 20 to 30 knots. Seas: 2 to 3 metres. Swell: Easterly about 1 metre tending southerly 1.5 metres late this evening.

Forecast for Tuesday

Winds: Westerly 15 to 25 knots tending west to southwesterly up to 15 knots around midday then tending southeasterly during the afternoon. Seas: Up to 3 metres decreasing to 2 metres around dawn then decreasing to below 1 metre during the afternoon. Swell: Southerly 2 to 4 metres decreasing to 2 to 3 metres from the late morning.

Forecast for Wednesday

Winds: West to southwesterly 10 to 20 knots, reaching 25 knots at times, tending southerly 10 to 20 knots during the morning then decreasing below 10 knots during the afternoon. Winds tending northeast to southeasterly up to 15 knots during the evening. Seas: Up to 1.5 metres. Swell: Southerly about 2 metres.

Shire Rpt

7am – and the predicted big swell hasn’t hit yet

south-west vancouver island

on sunday morning at 7 am: 2 – 3 foot, a glassy, lapping, undulating lip – very high-tide, criss-crossing the very base of our rivermouth point – i caught two waves, with little time and some chill !! – one waterfalls down a face, taken too late, and a nice long semi-barrel – should be well visited today – excellent conditions abound !!twitter mercuryloge

Caught Ya, In Byron Bay Today

Yesterday we posed the question where’s Santa, and when will he be putting in an order with Huey for some nice Christmas swell, in Byron Bay. Well today we found Old Nic himself down the beach. He obviously hasn’t bothered to look up Huey yet, as it’s still utterly flat. What’s more it appears that he’s even been sneaking in a few little waves himself, while it’s all rainy, quiet and flat in the bay. So here’s the deal Santa, our readers are onto your caper now buddy. So come on bloke, lift your game and have a chat to Huey real soon, we’re all itching to see a few more lines sweeping past the cape as we inch towards Christmas, In Byron Bay Today.

Deadly dull