Hello Friends,

Did you stay in bed this morning? Very sensible. The ocean is smooth and the microscopic, short period east south east wind swell is struggling to make it to knee high on the bombs. I checked the Collaroy-Narrabeen and No man’s to Dee Why stretches before 0700 and saw only two tiny peaks.

As the latest marine forecast from the Bureau notes below, Huey is spinning up a low in the southern Tasman, but it won’t be sending us anything to play on before about Monday afternoon. Between now and then it looks as though you can safely leave surfing out of your plans if you live in Sydney.

A few days ago the models were looking a lot more promising for Tue-Thr of the coming week. But as so often happens, as we get close to the date, the forecasts get less enthusiastic. The latest run of the models is now suggesting we might have some shoulder high sets at south swell spots from about Tuesday morning to maybe Thursday.

Still, the water seems to be warming up again, so even if the waves are strictly average next week, at least it should feel like summer.

Keep on smilin’ and go well with your weekend!

Weather Situation

A complex low to the southwest of Tasmania is expected to move northeast and through Bass Strait on Sunday and then to the east of Bass Strait on Monday. Westerly winds will turn briefly southerly along the southern half of the coast today, before turning west to northwesterly again during Sunday as the low approaches. On Monday the winds are expected to turn west to southwesterly and become strong to gale force in the south behind a front as the low deepens in the Tasman Sea.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Winds: Northwesterly 15 to 20 knots increasing to up to 30 knots offshore around midday then decreasing to 15 to 25 knots by early evening. Winds tending west to southwesterly 15 to 25 knots later in the evening. Seas: 1 to 2 metres increasing up to 3 metres during the afternoon. Swell: Easterly 1 metre.

Forecast for Sunday

Winds: Southwesterly 5 to 15 knots tending north to northwesterly around dawn then increasing to 20 to 25 knots around midday, and to 30 knots offshore during the afternoon. Seas: Up to 2 metres increasing to 3 metres by early evening. Swell: Easterly about 1 metre.

Forecast for Monday

Winds: Westerly 20 to 30 knots. Seas: 2 to 3 metres. Swell: Easterly 0.5 metres tending southeasterly during the evening.

Hello Friends,

Cloudy with isolated showers this morning but it should clear up a bit as the day goes along. Meanwhile, out at sea off Sydney, the MHL buoy is recording almost two metres of straight south wind swell at about 6 seconds apart. Nothing like two metres showing at the beaches from Narrabeen to Dee Why. Faces of a metre on the bombs if you’re lucky.  The good news as the Goat noted yesterday is that the water temp is going up. The latest reading shows it sitting at a positively summery 21 C offshore. The inshore temp will likely be different, but there’s no way a four degree increase in as many days can’t be a good thing!

If you’re very keen, I’d be heading to my favourite south swell magnet and waiting very patiently on my most floaty surf tool.

Tide was high at 0500, the low will be at 1130 and then on to the last high of the day at 1710.

I’m with the Goat on the outlook for this weekend. The latest run of the models is suggesting that today is probably about as good as it gets until the 21st or thereabouts when the models are still showing an interesting south bump of a day or two’s duration. As usual, as we’ve come closer to the day, the forecast models have toned down their estimates of the wave size. This morning the super computers reckon we’ll have a two to two and a bit metres of 10 sec south swell from overnight Monday into maybe Wednesday morning or even, if we’re real lucky

Go well with your day, and stay happy.

Weather Situation

A low pressure trough remains over the northern coast although weakening. A deep low to the south of Tasmania is expected to bring a westerly change to much of the coast by early Saturday, increasing on Sunday ahead of a cold front.

Forecast for Friday until midnight

Winds: South to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots becoming light around midday then tending north to northeasterly up to 15 knots during the afternoon. Seas: Below 1 metre. Swell: Easterly 1 metre.

Forecast for Saturday

Winds: Northwest to southwesterly 10 to 20 knots. Seas: Up to 1.5 metres increasing to 2 metres. Swell: Easterly 1 metre.

Forecast for Sunday

Winds: West to southwesterly 5 to 15 knots, reaching 20 knots at times. Seas: Up to 1.5 metres. Swell: Easterly about 1 metre.