Hello Friends,

Light breezes this morning are combining with a surprisingly indolent little south swell to lure a fair number of punters on a sunny Saturday morning. The numbers from the MHL are showing swell coming from the SSE at a touch under two metres and around 11 seconds apart. I was surprised to see how small it was at the north end of the Collaroy-Narrabeen stretch and at No Man’s to Dee Why.  There were the occasional sets of around waist high, maybe a bit bigger, but there were also quite long waits between them and the quality was not great. The incoming tide was probably not helping much, and those flat summer banks are still the dominant feature.

Keep the expectations modest and with a bit of effort, you should be able to find somewhere to get wet.

I’m with the Goat on the outlook for the coming week. His call (see down the page) lines up quite well with this morning’s observations and run of the forecast models. For what it’s worth, I’m still liking the look of that area off to the NE of NZ. Some of the long range models are showing the fetch building up a nice little pulse of east swell for the east coast by around this time next week. The wind forecast doesn’t look great, but then it doesn’t look totally ‘orrible either. Could be just your average onshore pattern (ie get in early before it junks out).

TIDES: H @1050, L @1720

Weather Situation

A high pressure system west of Tasmania is moving eastwards, with a brief southerly change expected along the NSW south coast this morning ahead of it. By Sunday the high will move to the southeast of Tasmania.

A cold front is expected to move northwards along the southern coast during Monday. It should then stall along the Mid North Coast during Tuesday.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Winds: East to northeasterly 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots by early evening. Seas: Below 1 metre. Swell: Southeasterly about 1.5 metres.

Forecast for Sunday

Winds: North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 knots by early evening. Seas: Below 1 metre increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by early evening. Swell: Southeasterly 1 metre.

Forecast for Monday

Winds: North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots increasing to 20 to 30 knots during the afternoon ahead of a late southerly change 20 to 30 knots. Seas: 1.5 to 2 metres increasing up to 3 metres. Swell: Southeasterly 1 metre.

Hello Friends,

When I knocked off yesterday evening, the MHL buoy was showing about 1.5 metres of ESE windswell. The average period was just 6 seconds. But at midnight Huey decided to ramp up the energy and by dawn the average period was a juicy 10 seconds with some 14sec peak component thrown in to add interest. Dee Why point was well populated by 0630.

We’re in for a warm one with an afternoon NE’r, so I’d say there should be surf options around the joint for the whole day. According to the latest run of the models, it seems that today might be the peak. Here’s hoping it sticks around in the surfable range through the weekend.

I’m hoping to get out and about with the camera today, so check back later to see what I found!

Tides: H @1000, L @1640

Coastal Waters Forecast for New South Wales
Sydney Coast: Broken Bay to Port Hacking

Issued at 4:50 am EDT on Friday 21 January 2011
for the period until midnight EDT Sunday 23 January 2011.

Please be aware
Wind gusts can be 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

Warning Summary at issue time

Nil.

Details of warnings are available on the Bureau’s website www.bom.gov.au, by telephone 1300-659-218* or through some TV and radio broadcasts.

Weather Situation

A weak high pressure system south of New Zealand extends a ridge to the New South Wales coast. A cold front will pass to the south today, bringing a southerly change to southern parts of the coast overnight or early Saturday, before the next high drifts across from the west.

Forecast for Friday until midnight

Winds: Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots. Seas: Below 1 metre. Swell: Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.

Forecast for Saturday

Winds: North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots decreasing below 10 knots around dawn then becoming easterly and light during the morning. Winds tending east to southeasterly up to 10 knots during the afternoon. Seas: Below 1 metre. Swell: Southeasterly about 1.5 metres.

Forecast for Sunday

Winds: Light winds tending northeasterly up to 15 knots during the afternoon. Seas: Below 1 metre. Swell: Southeasterly 1 metre.