Sticky: Can numbers lie?

Posted by: on March 4th, 2011

Hello Friends,

That’s odd. The MHL Sydney buoy was showing a couple metres of south swell at 10 seconds apart. But sets at Dee Why were struggling to reach the chest high mark. We have a 1.5 m high tide at around 0900, so that’s obviously a factor, but I would’ve thought it’d be a bit more obvious. Surfer proposes, Huey disposes I guess.

Wind should be good for the exposed south spots this morning, but it is set to go around to the SE later on. At the same time the swell pulse showing on the buoy is due to fade. So, it’s a case of go early for the best shot.

Absent the Goat’s thoughts, my take on the outlook for tomorrow is that it’s shaping up to be a grey and south east sort of day. Swell forecast has it still being small early, but then as the day goes along, the wind should bring in some more size from the south. However, the models reckon the average period could be in the 8-9 sec range, so the protected south corners may not be all that special. Figure kinda messy, kinda weak and waist to chest high plus…

Anyway, have yourself a fabulous Friday!

TIDES: H @0900 L @1515

Weather Situation
A trough of low pressure extends through northeastern New South Wales, resulting in unsettled conditions there. A cold front is expected to affect the coast on Friday. A high pressure system south of the Bight is expected to move east in the wake of the front and should be centred near Tasmania Saturday night before moving to the Tasman Sea on Sunday, and remaining there for several days.

Forecast for Friday until midnight
Winds: East to northeasterly 5 to 10 knots tending east to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon then becoming southeasterly 15 to 20 knots by early evening. Seas: Below 1 metre increasing to 1.5 metres later in the evening. Swell: Southerly about 2 metres decreasing to 1 metre late this evening.

Forecast for Saturday
Winds: South to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots. Seas: 1 to 2 metres. Swell: Southerly about 1 metre increasing to 2 metres in the afternoon and evening.

Forecast for Sunday
Winds: Southeasterly 15 to 20 knots tending easterly 10 to 15 knots during the evening. Seas: 1 to 1.5 metres. Swell: Southerly about 2 metres.

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