Hello Friends,

Running very late this morning because I haven’t been able to see the beach until the last hour or so. Anyway, it’s grey and messy, but as PB’s noted, there are waves around. Wind is out of the ENE at 10-15kts and the 8-9 second period east windswell is around 2.5 metres at sea. Wave faces on the bigger ones at Dee Why were around the head high mark. But the water is a horrible greenish grey thanks to the torrents of rain we had earlier this morning.

This morning’s run of the swell models suggests that the swell energy will stay at around these levels for the next couple days or so. Tomorrow’s wind forecast is for NE wind, so there might be a few options at the northern ends…

Go well!

TIDES: H @1015, L @1620

Weather Situation
A broad low pressure trough across inland NSW will move east to southeast over the course of the next few days and affect the coast during late Tuesday and on Wednesday. A high pressure ridge is expected to extend towards NSW coast in a wake of the trough on Thursday.

Forecast for Monday until midnight
Winds: East to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots. Seas: 1 to 1.5 metres increasing to 2 metres by early evening. Swell: Easterly 3 metres becoming 2 to 3 metres from the late morning. The chance of thunderstorms offshore, extending throughout during the evening. Large swells breaking dangerously close inshore.

Forecast for Tuesday
Winds: North to northeasterly 10 to 20 knots. Seas: 1 to 1.5 metres increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres by early evening. Swell: Easterly 2 to 3 metres. The chance of thunderstorms, contracting offshore by early evening. Large swells breaking dangerously close inshore in the early morning.

Forecast for Wednesday
Winds: West to northwesterly 5 to 15 knots tending southwesterly during the afternoon then tending northeasterly up to 10 knots during the evening. Seas: Up to 1.5 metres decreasing to below 1 metre during the evening. Swell: Easterly 2 to 3 metres.

Hello Friends,

Just a quick note to say that the wind change seemed to open up a brief window of surfability at Dee Why mid afternoon. But it was still very messy, so if you missed out, don’t feel too hard done by. We’ve had a heap of rain up the valley from the beach, so the run off is making the water look as vile as it most certainly is. Still, there were around 30 people having a go in the gloop. Most were at the point, but a sizable fraction were faffing around in a rippy peak almost due north of the rocks. Could that be… dare we hope… the bones of a new super peak?

This morning I wrote:

Dreadful conditions this morning as 20 kts of ESE combine with a high tide and intermittent heavy showers to throughly wreck a 2 metre south swell. The average period is sitting on a windswelly 8 seconds, but there are 15 second period sets in amongst it as well. I grabbed an opportunity between the showers to take a snap of the situation at around 0915. Not a good look sadly. Last night there were around 30 people in the water chasing things at the point and in the beachy. The quality wasn’t great, and the water has taken on a sickly hue, but they were getting waves thanks in part to an average period of 10 seconds. This morning I spotted only one person bobbing hopefully just off the point.

The marine forecast for Sydney says the wind should move around to the NE soon and that the dominant swell direction should go more to the east.  If that happens, it might open up a few messy opportunities in some of the north corners. The BoM’s swell forecast shows the energy levels pushing up by this afternoon, so it might be worth keeping an eye on things. I’ll be checking it off and on through the day, so if I see anything, I’ll let ya know!

This morning’s run of the models has gone all pessimistic on us. For the last couple days some of the interpretations were showing a solid pulse later in the week. Now the call seems to be for a gradual decline to tininess after one more slight peak on Tuesday. Put it down to the change of seasons I guess.

Have a top old Sunday!

TIDES: H @ 0920, L @1540

Weather Situation

A high pressure ridge lies across the southern Tasman Sea and a broad low pressure trough lies off New South Wales north coast. A little change in the synoptic situation is expected over the next few days.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight

Winds: Easterly 10 to 15 knots tending east to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the morning. Seas: Below 1 metre increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday. Swell: Southerly 2 metres tending easterly from the late morning. The chance of thunderstorms offshore. Large swells breaking dangerously close inshore.

Forecast for Monday

Winds: East to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots becoming northeasterly 20 to 25 knots around midday then increasing to 25 to 30 knots later in the evening. Seas: 1 to 1.5 metres increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon. Swell: Easterly 2 metres.

Forecast for Tuesday

Winds: North to northeasterly 20 to 30 knots tending north to northwesterly up to 25 knots during the morning then tending northeast to northwesterly up to 10 knots during the afternoon. Winds tending east to northeasterly up to 10 knots during the evening. Seas: Up to 3 metres decreasing to below 1 metre during the afternoon. Swell: Easterly 2 to 3 metres.

Hello Friends,

At daybreak it was raining steadily along the northern beaches. Right across the Sydney region, the wind was blowing SSE at 15-20 kts and the forecast says it won’t be backing off, nor will the direction improve. In fact it’s supposed to swing more to the east later. The MHL Sydney buoy was showing two metres of south swell with an average period of 8 seconds. However, the peak period stuff is flirting with 15 seconds, so there could be some solid sets in the mix and even the most protected corners could see the odd catchable one. Of course you’ll have to be totally oblivious to the stormwater runoff now ramping up the possibilities of micro-organism unpleasantness in the ocean.

Tomorrow and Monday are not looking too promising. The wind will continue out of the SE right across the period and this morning’s run of the swell models is pointing to a gradual shift in the dominant swell direction to the east. However, at this stage it’s not looking as though the long period stuff will persist and consequently the biggest waves are more likely to be at places with the strongest wind.

I’ll be back later with a pic or two once the rain lets up enough to get something.

Have a good one!

Weather Situation

A high pressure ridge lies across the southern Tasman Sea and a broad low pressure trough lies off New South Wales north coast and a little change in the synoptic situation is expected over the next few days.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Winds: East to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots becoming easterly 15 to 25 knots by early evening. Seas: 1 to 1.5 metres increasing to 2 metres during the morning. Swell: Southerly about 2 metres. The chance of thunderstorms. Large swells breaking dangerously close inshore.

Forecast for Sunday

Winds: Southeasterly 5 to 15 knots. Seas: Up to 1.5 metres. Swell: Southerly 1.5 metres tending easterly about 2 metres from the late morning. Large swells breaking dangerously close inshore in the early morning.

Forecast for Monday

Winds: South to southeasterly 5 to 15 knots becoming southerly up to 10 knots during the morning. Seas: Below 1 metre. Swell: Easterly 2 metres.