Hello Friends,

We have almost three metres of SE windswell pushing into the Sydney region’s beaches this morning. But 20-30kts of SSE wind has reduced surfing options to a minimum. There was actually a person in the water when I grabbed the morning Dee Why situation snap, but while I admired the pluck, I wasn’t in the least envious. It really looks just junky and horrible and the water is not exactly clear and sparkling either.

The SE wind is set to continue until the end of the week. Which is kinda sad given the forecast rise in easterly swell for tomorrow through Thursday. The models are calling for 4-5 metres of swell at the peak, but the Bureau is saying it’ll be 3 to 4 metres. Either way, that’s big enough to be interesting under the right circumstances.

My hope is that when the wind comes back around to a more favourable direction by Friday, that we’ll still have something left in the tank. Some of the models are saying it could still be in the two metre range from the east…

Have yourself a safe and happy Tuesday!

Weather Situation
A low pressure system just off the NSW far north coast, is expected to deepen and move slowly to the south over the next couple of days. A strong high pressure system west of Tasmania is moving slowly east extending a ridge across the southern Tasman Sea. The low is expected to move away to the east on Thursday.
Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Winds
Southeasterly 25 to 30 knots.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Southeasterly about 2 metres.
Wednesday 15 June
Winds
East to southeasterly 30 to 35 knots.
Seas
3 metres increasing to 4 metres during the morning.
Swell
Easterly 2 to 3 metres.
Weather
Large swells breaking dangerously close inshore.
Thursday 16 June
Winds
Southeasterly 25 to 35 knots decreasing to 15 knots during the afternoon then tending southwesterly up to 25 knots during the evening.
Seas
Up to 4 metres decreasing below 2 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southeasterly 3 metres tending easterly 3 to 4 metres from the morning.

Hello Friends,

Not the most prepossessing of mornings as Monday started. Wind was out of the south at around 20 kts and swell was 3 metres on average but the combination of a 7 second average period and the southerly swell direction are not doing us any favours. Dee Why was messy although not small. If the wind were more favourable, you’d be looking at the odd shoulder to head high set. But as long as the wind continues, we’re out of luck.

The outlook is for the SE wind to keep working us over for another three or four days.

Latest reckonings of the wave models for our region are a bit all over the shop but there’s some consensus around Friday being both big and offshore – if the expected East Coast low forms up around midweek.

Have yourself a great Monday.

Weather Situation
A strong high pressure system west of Tasmania is moving slowly east extending a ridge across the southern Tasman Sea and a low pressure trough is deepening off New South Wales central and north coasts. Late tonight or early Tuesday a low is expected to develop off the north coast and then to move south to southeast during Wednesday and Thursday.
Forecast for Monday until midnight
Winds
Southeasterly 20 to 30 knots decreasing to 20 to 25 knots during the afternoon then increasing to 20 to 30 knots by early evening.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Southerly about 1 metre.
Tuesday 14 June
Winds
Southeasterly 25 to 30 knots increasing to 30 to 35 knots by afternoon.
Seas
2 to 3 metres increasing to 3 to 4 metres around midday.
Swell
Southeasterly 1 metre.
Wednesday 15 June
Winds
East to southeasterly 25 to 35 knots, reaching 40 knots at times, although southeasterly 25 to 30 knots inshore during the morning.
Seas
3 metres increasing to 4 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southeasterly about 1.5 metres.

Hello Friends,

15-20 kts of southerly is working over a weakening 2 metre south swell. Average period is around the 8 second mark, so it’s pretty much windswell. Dee Why is probably typical of elsewhere around the Sydney region – ie beat up, messy junk. Looks like a good day to catch up on your life outside surfing.

Sadly this morning’s run of the forecast models continues to call for another few days of onshore and junky conditions. Indeed, tomorrow the southerly is supposed to go around to the south east and to stay that way through Tuesday. At the same time, a fresh East Coast Low is expected to spin up off the north coast and the current reckoning is that it will track south and quite possibly it will push up the swell rather dramatically. Some interpretations of the data show the expected pulse to get close to the 6 metre (!!) mark briefly late Wednesday-early Thursday. The wind’s supposed to be out of the SE and it will probably be raining though. However, as the swell fades away on Thursday and into Friday, the wind should be around to the SW and then west so… could be fun if we’re lucky.

Have yourself a great Sunday!

Weather Situation
A strong high pressure system west of Tasmania is moving very slowly east extending a ridge across the southern Tasman Sea. A low pressure trough is developing along the NSW coast. The trough will deepen during Monday and a low will develop within the trough along the northern half of the coast Tuesday/Wednesday. This will increase winds along the coast southwards of the low. Strong to gale force winds are likely. The low is expected to move further south and then southeast on Thursday and Friday.
Forecast for Sunday until midnight
Winds
Southerly 20 to 25 knots.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Southeasterly about 1 metre.
Monday 13 June
Winds
Southeasterly about 20 knots.
Seas
2 metres.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres.
Tuesday 14 June
Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots during the afternoon then increasing to 25 to 30 knots during the evening.
Seas
2 metres increasing to 3 metres during the afternoon then increasing to 4 metres during the evening.
Swell
Southeasterly 1 metre.

Hello Friends,

Swell is out of the south at an average height of 4 metres (+ seas to 6m). Period is averaging 9 seconds but there is some 11 sec component in the mix too. Wind was SSW at 12-15kts. Both the wind and swell are set to decrease during the day, with the Bureau calling for the latter to be down to about 2m by dark. There’s a 60% chance of a shower and it’ll be cloudy all day.

Despite the numbers, the average set wave face I saw at Dee Why when I checked at around 0720 was in the shoulder to head high range. I’d be very surprised if there weren’t some bigger ones every now and then though. Relatively clean in the protected corners too. Had a look at the Collaroy to Narra stretch and spotted some attractive little walls  near Marquesas but while I watched they all shut down unmakeably. Great patience required I’d say.

Outlook for the coming week is not too encouraging from this run of the wave forecast models. Basically we’re looking at onshores and grey skies with a steady supply of shortish period windswell. There is the prospect of an intense east coast low spinning up off the north coast and by mid-week some of the models reckon we could be looking at a peak of up to 5 metres of east swell. ECL’s aren’t all that predictable, so there’s probably an even money chance of it not getting to anything like that big. If it does though, the models show it being essentially unsurfable due to howling onshores – although you might get a wave at one of the inner harbour spots I suppose…

Go well with your Saturday!

Tides: L @0945, H @1620, Water @ 19C