Hello Friends,

Grim old start to the day. Clammy and misty and although the MHL buoy is showing a couple metres of SSE swell with a period of 11 seconds, I couldn’t make out much in the way of interesting activity at Dee Why when I checked it for the first time around 0700. Winds were light to begin with and they’re expected to swing around to the NE later.

This morning’s run of the swell forecast models points to a steady decline in energy levels across the day. So, if they’re right, this morning is as big as it gets not only for today but right through until Tuesday (when the call is for flatness). And then a funny thing happens…

As recently as yesterday evening, the swell forecast models were calling for a small improvement in size late in the week for the Sydney region. But this morning they seem to have gone nuts – totally bonkers in fact. At about the point that I’m decamping for a family do in Adelaide, the swell is set to surge dramatically. I think this might possibly be the biggest call I’ve seen in a very long time actually. Some riffs on the data are showing it building rapidly from three metres on Wednesday to a towering 6-8 metres by Friday night. Of course the wind call is for showery weather and strong, mostly southerly winds with the big stuff.

Long experience tells us that big calls like this from the swell models typically scale back as we get closer to the event. However, the models rarely get it totally and utterly wrong, so we’re probably pretty safe to say that it won’t be tiny!

TIDES: H @0900, L @1430

Weather Situation
A high pressure system centred over eastern Bass Strait is slowly moving towards New Zealand, while maintaining a ridge along the New South Wales coast. A low pressure trough is expected to deepen over the state’s west during Sunday before moving to the coast early in the new week. As this system moves offshore a low is likely to develop over the Tasman Sea, resulting in an increasing southerly airstream along the coast by mid-week.
Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Winds
Southwest to southeasterly winds 5 to 10 knots inshore at first, otherwise east to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 2 metres.
Sunday 17 July
Winds
North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 10 knots during the morning then increasing to 10 to 15 knots by early evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly about 1.5 metres.
Monday 18 July
Winds
North to northwesterly 5 to 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 metre tending easterly about 1 metre from the morning.
Please be aware
Wind gusts can be 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
Nearby Coastal Waters

Hello Friends,

Sorry to run so late, computer issues this end. Swell has dropped in size at sea to around 2.5 metres on average. It’s still out of the south and Huey’s dialled the power down to an average period of about 9 seconds. The sets are now much further apart at Dee Why. The waits are longer at the point than up the beach. Being school hols, there are adequate numbers at both spots.

You can definitely have fun with these waves because the bigger sets are still pushing the head high mark. But the expected downward trend is definitely in place.

From the shape of the forecast models it looks as though the energy will sputter out over the next few days, but we’re unfortunately in for a more onshore wind regime at the same time.

What an amazing run of swell we’ve had!

Have yourself a top old Friday – and keep on smilin’

Weather Situation
Southerly airstream dominates New South Wales coast on the eastern flank of a high centred west of Tasmania. Onshore winds will develop along New South wales coast from late Friday onwards with the high entering the Tasman Sea.
Forecast for Friday until midnight
Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Up to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 2 metres.
Saturday 16 July
Winds
East to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending east to northeasterly around midday.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly about 2 metres.
Sunday 17 July
Winds
North to northeasterly 5 to 10 knots becoming northeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly about 1.5 metres.

Hello Friends,

Looks like we’ve got another day of swell and favourable winds. Huey’s going to switch over to onshores tomorrow, so I’d say this is pretty much it for our amazing run of swell. Sets at Dee Why this morning were in the head high to head high plus range and the MHL buoy is reporting 2.5m at 11 seconds from the south, so they’re juicy.

The swell prediction models are showing the energy peaking this afternoon when we can also expect a reasonable chance of showers as well. So, it looks as though my last opportunity to get a few snaps in sunny conditions will be this morning. The Bureau says we’re going to have a week of partly cloudy and on again off again showers.

Tide was high at 0730, so the low will be along at a touch after 1300.

Get out there and enjoy if the schedule permits because if the models are to be believed, we’re heading into a week of marginal conditions from about Sunday…

Go well!

Weather Situation
A vigorous southwesterly airstream over the southern Tasman Sea will weaken today as a high pressure system centred southeast of the Bight is slowly moving east. Onshore winds will develop along New South wales coast from Friday onwards with the high entering Tasman Sea.
Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Winds
South to southwesterly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres.
Swell
Southerly about 2 metres.
Friday 15 July
Winds
South to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots tending east to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots around midday.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 2 metres.
Saturday 16 July
Winds
East to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 2 metres.