Small but not utterly flat

Posted by: on August 15th, 2011

Hello Friends,

Heavy cloud lurking off to the south when I grabbed a snap of Dee Why beach this morning a little before 0730. The MHL buoy off Sydney is still not reporting in, so my guess is that the swell is out of the SE at around a metre with an average period somewhere in the 7-8 second range. The Eden and Batemans Bay buoys are showing an uptick in the average period to around 10 seconds. If that gets up to us, there could be a small improvement in size as the day goes along. Unfortunately the wind’s supposed to swing from SW this morning to SE this afternoon.

Tide is high at 0910 and low @1455.

From the shape of this morning’s swell forecast interpretations, it would appear that we’re in for a smallness through tomorrow before we get a bit of a SE pulse on Wednesday. That could be an interesting one because the wind is set to be pretty strongly out of the NE along the Sydney coast. According to the predictions, we’re looking at 12-14 sec periods too, and that should mean there are some interesting goings-on in a few of the north corners. Later in the week looks as though it’ll be smaller but not flat thanks to a combo of SE swell direction and reasonable periods.

For what it’s worth, the very long range call is for some real size at SE spots on Sunday through to Tuesday. Could be so-so winds with it, so although 4 metres of SE might happen, conditions may not be all that clean.

Have yourself a top old Monday!

Weather Situation
A strengthening high pressure system to the southeast of Tasmania extends a ridge into eastern New South Wales. The high is expected to move slowly over the southern Tasman Sea during the next day or two. An active cold front is forecast to cross much of the state during Wednesday, reaching the coast early Thursday. A low is then likely to form over the western Tasman Sea as an upper level trough moves across the region, although it’s precise position is currently uncertain.
Forecast for Monday until midnight
Winds
Southwesterly 5 to 10 knots tending east to southeasterly during the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southeasterly 1 metre.
Tuesday 16 August
Winds
Light winds tending northeasterly up to 10 knots by early evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southeasterly 1 metre.
Wednesday 17 August
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots tending north to northeasterly 20 to 25 knots during the morning then becoming northerly 25 to 30 knots during the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the morning then increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the evening.
Swell
Southeasterly about 2 metres.

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