Archive for October 2011
The swell forecast models were caught on the hop. There’s more activity this morning than predicted. Swell is scrappy, but coming from the south at an average height of 3 metres and with an average period of nearly 9 seconds.
Wind was out of the WSW at around 10 kts as we got started.
There were a few bods in the water at Dee Why where set wave faces were into the head high range. The banks didn’t look too flash but the surface conditions were relatively clean considering. We’re heading toward a highish high tide at around 1120, so that extra push is helping matters along too.
The point didn’t seem to be doing much and hadn’t attracted any takers as of 0700. Don’t know what’s going on with the wind, as it was supposed to be southerly at 20-30 kts (tailing off later).
It’s supposed to be a cool day and partly cloudy, so if you have an opening in the schedule, it might be worth a look at your fave south spot just in case…
Have yourself a top old Monday!
A southerly change has moved into Queensland. Behind this change a strong, slow-moving high pressure system south of the Bight extends a ridge over NSW. The high pressure ridge will continue over the state during the week. During Saturday the high is expected to become centered over the Tasman.
Forecast for Monday until midnight
- Southerly 20 to 30 knots decreasing to 20 to 25 knots during the afternoon then decreasing to 15 to 20 knots by early evening.
- Up to 3 metres.
- Northeasterly 1 metre tending southeasterly 1.5 metres from midday.
Tuesday 1 November
- Southeasterly 5 to 15 knots.
- Below 1 metre.
- Southerly about 2 metres decreasing to 1 metre late in the evening.
Wednesday 2 November
North to northeasterly 5 to 15 knots tending northwesterly during the morning then tending south to southwesterly up to 25 knots during the afternoon. Winds tending southeasterly 15 to 25 knots during the evening.
Below 1 metre increasing up to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Southerly 1 metre.
California, Half Moon Bay, Surf Sessions.
All photos/video taken with my new Panasonic Lumix TS3, except as noted.
Before I left this morning, I checked the Linda Mar cam on Surfline and saw nothing but fog. Steamer Lane, which is slightly predictive of the cam-less Jetty, was tiny to flat. I had little hope that the Jetty would have waves for me, but I did have a little hope. Alas, the indicators were right; double-overhead to a mouse on the sunny edge of the low cloud bank. Not wanting to surf alone, I drove north into the fog. I didn’t stop at Montara, where a great white shark was seen last week, but it looked unruly in glimpses from the road.
|Tiny waves on the edge of fog at the Jetty (Google Nexus One)|
At Linda Mar, the fog was pushed back from the beach so I could see the lineup. The south end was packed, and the parking lot was filling up.
|Busy on the south end at Linda Mar|
I spied with my little eye a left popping up near the pumphouse with just a few guys on it.
With some underlying short-period windswell in the water, it was a bit of effort to paddle out, but I drew on my swim-sprint strength to get to the outside, breathing hard when I reached it.
Wave selection was key since so many of the waves were closing out, and I do think I’m getting better at making those judgments. I caught an almost head-high left that was surprisingly fast, turning on the shoulder, going with the flow. Woot! The shoulder held up for a bit but I dropped off when the wave broke to avoid repeating the paddle out through an excess of whitewater. I rode a few more fun lefts, shoulder-high or better. It’s so much easier to see what the wave’s doing and respond when the face is in front of me instead of behind my back. I love lefts!
After a brief appearance the sun retreated into the fog, which then grew even heavier. There was a strong southward current which many in the water seemed not to notice. Maybe that’s why there were so many people at the south end; they were getting pushed down there and piling up. I was keeping an eye on the pumphouse, my shore reference point, and constantly paddling back against the current to my spot, which was staying pretty empty despite the growing crowd. But I’ve been fighting a virus since last week, and too soon my energy faded and I started to make mistakes. I caught one last fun left, this time riding it all the way to the shallows. A short but oh-so-sweet session!
Surfline: NW (300-320) wind/groundswell mix blends with small-scale S-SW Southern Hemi energy this morning. Waist-chest-shoulder high surf continues at the decent exposures, while top breaks hit head high on the best sets. Fairly light wind now under foggy skies. Buoy 46012: (Wave) SWELL: 4.9 ft at 11.4 s NW 90 / WIND WAVE: 3.3 ft at 5.6 s NW / WVHT: 5.9 ft / APD: 6.1 s / MWD: 309° (Met) WSPD: 12 kts / GST: 16 kts / WVHT: 5.9 ft / DPD: 11.0 s / WDIR: 330° / ATMP: 54.9° F / WTMP: 58.8° F. Tide: Rising through 3.5′.
Well wouldn’t ya know it. Got up pre-dawn and it was strong sideshore and choppy. Went back to bed for a sec, sun rises and wind has backed off and it’s cleaned up. Strong SSW wind has blown up about 3ft of sth swell overnight. Some 3ft sets at Manly if you wait at the northern ends. Shape is still not that good though. 5.54am low tide.
I waited for a space in an already full car park, this morning, in Byron Bay today. Just sat and mused to myself, hmm yeah it’s got that summer feeling in the bay. The cars were already backed up by early morn as the Groms frothed about the place while the oldies refrained from blowing their horns. What’s it all about some crew where saying, why so busy is it pumping? Nah it’s just a warm sunny Sunday and the day trippers were hunting. Sure the surf was kinda lame, the wind was on it and a lack of power made it tame. But that didn’t stop people enjoying themselves just the same. As one shift left another arrived and so it went on most of the day. Because to put it simply that summer feeling was in the air and on folks minds, In Byron Bay Today.
Not much of interest going on at Dee Why this morning. The primary swell direction has gone around to the SE. It’s about a metre on average out at sea and averaging 8 seconds apart. High tide at 1030 isn’t contributing anything to the surf prospects. Wind was light early, but the Bureau tells us that it will gradually build up from the south and be going pretty hard tomorrow morning.
All that southerly activity should push up some wind swell tomorrow, but I’d be astounded if there was a quality wave anywhere. Might be a prospect on Tuesday morning though because the forecast says the wind should weaken from around midday on Monday. I’m also liking the look of some of the longer range predictions for late in the week when we just might get a long period south pulse. Might be an idea to tentatively secure a Friday morning surf slot in your schedule…
Have yourself a great Sunday!
A cold front will move through the northeast of the state today as a strong, slow-moving high pressure system moves south of the Bight extending a ridge towards NSW.
Forecast for Sunday until midnight
- South to southwesterly 5 to 10 knots then tending south to southeasterly around midday. Winds becoming southerly 10 to 20 knots by early evening. .
- Below 1 metre.
- Northeasterly 1 metre.
- Isolated thunderstorms offshore from the late morning until late afternoon.
Monday 31 October
- Southerly 20 to 25 knots decreasing to 10 to 20 knots around midday then tending south to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots by early evening.
- Up to 2 metres.
- Easterly 0.5 to 1.5 metres tending southerly 1.5 metres late in the evening.
Tuesday 1 November
Light southwest to southeasterly winds tending north to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon.
Below 1 metre.
- Southerly about 2 metres.
Snoozed in and missed out I think. 2ft East swell was prob good on low tide but now full of clubbies inside their own flags on big boards with no leashes. Not sure why they are allowed and we aren’t. Anyway tide is filling in (11:31am) but there will be something small for a longboard throughout the day.
You know spring tends to be a tad flat and kind of windy, in Byron Bay. Not to mention lots of rain and thunderstorms in the bay. But so far this spring the weather has been a non event. Sure we’ve had a few storms and a couple of flat spells. But they soon came and went. The unusual thing for spring is that we’ve had regular southerlies blowing in. Now southerlies are nice, but in spring they charge a hefty price. So far several spots that would normally be a build up of sand, have failed to do so, and this ain’t right. The progress of the summer banks is not building up as wide or packing in as tight as it usually would be for this time of year. So we really need those howling northerlies to kick into gear. We say, please let it blow Huey. Bring on those northerlies and pack that sand in. Then when summer comes the crowds can spread a little more and we can all wear a grin, In Byron Bay Today.
If you were up and out there at first light, you were in with a reasonable chance of a little wave at east spots. The sizable crew at North Narrabeen were seeing the 1.5 metre, 7 second east wind swell turning into waist to chest high sets. Winds were light too. Around at Dee Why the ocean was looking scruffier and the banks at the south end were pretty undistinguished. Every now and then a waist high dribbler would crumble its way in and give surfers something to jump up on.
Our big issue this morning is the very high tide at 0940. It will be the major factor until about lunch time. By then the wind will be out of the NE at 10-15 kts. There’s a 70% chance of rain today and when I was out taking pictures this morning, it looked pretty cloudy out to the west.
So get out there now if you can, because it doesn’t look like improving today. And tomorrow isn’t looking exceptionally flash. Indeed, might be a morning for a lie-in I’d say. This morning’s run of the swell models suggests we might see a little messy action in the south corners, but you wouldn’t be expecting great quality given that the southerly should still be hammering along at 20-30 kts.
A high pressure system near New Zealand extends a ridge towards Queensland, while a cold front moves through much of NSW today and through the northeast of the state on Sunday. The front will result in a southerly change along the southern half of the coast today, reaching the Queensland border by about dawn on Monday. Behind the front, a slow moving high approaches from the west.
Forecast for Saturday until midnight
- Northerly 15 to 20 knots tending north to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots around midday.
- 1 to 1.5 metres.
- Easterly about 1 metre.
- The chance of thunderstorms from midday.
Sunday 30 October
- Northwesterly 10 to 20 knots ahead of a southerly change 15 to 20 knots early morning increasing to about 25 knots later in the evening.
- 1 to 1.5 metres increasing to 2 metres later in the evening.
- Easterly 0.5 metres.
Monday 31 October
Southerly 20 to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 25 knots during the afternoon then decreasing to 10 to 15 knots during the evening.
Up to 3 metres decreasing to 1.5 metres during the evening.
Easterly 1 to 2 metres increasing to 2 to 3 metres from the morning.
On the road.
I came across a tow-in who managed to get his surfer into a few little sections. 2 foot E swell with a fairly breezy NNE wind. Very short period bump at open beaches. Enjoy your weekend. Surf Photos of You.
Reigning 10-time ASP world champion Kelly Slater is almost certain to clinch another world crown at this week’s Rip Curl Search in San Francisco and FUEL TV will be the only place to see this momentous feat LIVE.
Slater needs only a ninth place finish at the penultimate ASP World Tour event to achieve the unthinkable of winning 11 world titles. FUEL TV will ensure fans don’t miss a minute of the action with LIVE coverage commencing daily at 1.30am AEDT from November 2*.
On Slater’s imminent achievement, FUEL TV presenter and former world champion, Mark “Occy” Occhilupo said the win will entrench Slater as one of the greatest sportsmen of all time.
“Kelly has dominated our sport as much, if not more, than anyone else has done in other sports and an 11th world crown will make him one of the most successful athletes of all time.
“It’s amazing what he has achieved and I don’t think people will ever get to see a better surfer in action,” Occy said.
FUEL TV Channel Manager, Adam Howarth, said the home of surfing on Australian television ensured fans will see one of the greatest moments in sporting history LIVE