Hello Friends,

The heavy rains hadn’t arrived when I tapped out these words, but we’re told they’re inbound. It was drizzling when I grabbed this morning’s snap. Not that it matters because there didn’t appear to be anything you could surf. The MHL data is showing only a tiny short-period SE windswell of a metre at only 5 seconds apart for the Sydney region. And it looks as though the same conditions prevail up and down our coast this morning.

This morning’s swell modelling is showing the onshores pushing up potentially reasonable size SE swell by Friday. However the wind will be out of the same direction at 20-30 kts by Friday morning. Throw in the heavy rain, and it sounds like a recipe for pretty ordinary conditions.

Oh well. What can ya do eh?

Keep on smilin’ says I! Go well.

Weather Situation
A weak southerly change will continue moving slowly along the northern parts of the coast today as winds gradually turn southeasterly in a wake of the change. A trough deepening over inland NSW is expected to extend east on Thursday while a low forms just off the central parts of the coast. The low will move east across the Tasman Sea on Friday with a ridge developing along NSW coast and directing fresh southeasterly airstream towards the shore. The ridge will further strengthen on Saturday as a trough deepens again in the west with fresh to strong northeasterlies developing along NSW Coast.
Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Winds
South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending east to southeasterly 15 to 25 knots in the late morning.
Seas
Up to 1.5 metres increasing to 2 metres by early evening.
Swell
Northeasterly about 1.5 metres.
Weather
The chance of thunderstorms.
Thursday 1 March
Winds
Northeast to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots tending north to northwesterly during the evening then shifting southeasterly 20 to 30 knots later in the evening.
Seas
Up to 2 metres decreasing to below 1 metre by early evening.
Swell
Southeasterly 2 metres.
Weather
Isolated thunderstorms.
Friday 2 March
Winds
Southeasterly 20 to 30 knots turning easterly 15 to 20 knots during the evening.
Seas
Up to 3 metres decreasing to 2 metres during the evening.
Swell
Southeasterly about 2 metres.

Hello Friends,

Wan sunlight and mostly cloudy skies as Tuesday got started. But the rain is coming. As I write this the radio is reporting heavy falls way down south along the border. We might have a thunderstorm or two later today, but from tomorrow through Friday morning, the call is for that rain to be heavy at times. At the same time, we’ll be treated to a run of mainly southerly winds. Sadly, it doesn’t looks as though we’ll get anything too remarkable on the wave front.

Current reckoning from the computer models is that Sydney will see some size on Saturday morning, but it’ll be windy and messy and the water will be well and truly foul.

I’m hoping that come Sunday morning, we’ll have slightly better conditions and a little fading swell to play with.

In the meantime, my best wishes for your day!

TIDES: L @0615, H @1210

Weather Situation
A slow-moving high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea extends a ridge to the New South Wales north coast and is directing north to northeasterly winds over coastal waters. Heavy rainfalls is expected to develop over the southern half of New South Wales on Tuesday as a strong low pressure system develops over New South Wales. Associated with this system, a southerly wind change will move up the southern half of the coast on Tuesday, bringing a gusty change to districts south of Sydney during the afternoon. On Wednesday this wind change will progress further north. On Thursday a low may develop off the Illawarra or South Coast.
Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Winds
North to northeasterly 10 to 20 knots tending northeast to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon. A gusty southerly change 15 to 20 knots developing just before midnight. Up to 2 metres decreasing to below 1 metre around midday, then increasing to 1.5 metres during late evening.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 metre.
Weather
The chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Wednesday 29 February
Winds
An early southerly change of 10 to 15 knots tending south to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the morning then increasing to 20 to 25 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning then increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Northeasterly about 1.5 metres.
Weather
Isolated thunderstorms.
Thursday 1 March
Winds
Northeast to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots then tending north to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots during the evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Southeasterly 2 metres.
-Commonwealth of Australia 2012, Bureau of Meteorology

Hello Friends,

Not too magnificent this morning, but not totally and utterly flat. But that’s about the best you can say for the knee high sets. High tide arrives at 1130, so the time to get in is now – if you’re extra keen!

Wind’s not much of a factor as the day gets rolling, but the NEr is due later, so back to the north corners ladies and gentlemen.

This morning’s swell forecast models are still calling for some size toward the end of the week as we enter a SE wind and swell regime. From here it looks as though we may have 2-3 metres from Thursday through Friday evening, but your choices will be restricted to those very few places that are surfable in SE conditions.

We shall see…

Have a great Monday one and all!

Tides: L @0530 H @1130

Forecast for Monday until midnight

Winds

Northerly 15 to 25 knots tending north to northeasterly during the afternoon.

Seas

1.5 to 2 metres.

Swell

Easterly about 1 metre.

Tuesday 28 February

Winds

Northerly 15 to 20 knots turning east to northeasterly 5 to 10 knots during the afternoon.

Seas

Up to 2 metres decreasing to below 1 metre around midday.

Swell

Northeasterly 1 metre.

Hello Friends,

Not much of a start to Sunday morning. We had a little shower in Dee Why to open proceedings. Mostly cloudy skies and about 10 kts of NNE wind greeted the hardy types who paddled out into the mush anyway. The MHL data shows about 1.5 metres of 6 second period NE wind swell – and it looks just like you’d expect.

Conditions are set to sputter along at more or less this rate for the rest of the day, and indeed, into mid-week.

For the first time in weeks, the long range swell forecast models are currently showing the possibility of a change to southerly conditions and with it maybe some solid south swell toward the end of the coming week. The model confidence is not high, so put this into the “watching brief” category.

Have yourself a great Sunday!
TIDES: H @1050 L @1655

Weather Situation
A slow-moving high high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea extends a ridge to New South Wales north coast. On Tuesday a cold front is expected to bring southerly change to the south and central coasts as the high moves east and weakens.
Forecast for Sunday until midnight
Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots tending north to northeasterly by early evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Easterly about 1 metre.
Monday 27 February
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots turning northerly during the morning.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Easterly about 1 metre.
Tuesday 28 February
Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots decreasing to below 10 knots during the afternoon ahead of an evening southerly change 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Up to 2 metres decreasing to below 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Easterly 1 metre.
Weather
The chance of thunderstorms from the afternoon.
Commonwealth of Australia 2012, Bureau of Meteorology