Still small

Posted by: on January 18th, 2014

Same as it ever was

Day get started
Hello Friends,

You could ask for better. But, then again, it is summer, so whadya expect? We’re in for a warm one again today – although out here on the coast will be nothing like the sort of heat pretty much everybody west of us to the Indian ocean’s had to put up with. With all that energy in the system, the NE’r will spin up into the 20-25 kt range by this afternoon. Right now it’s maybe knee high at Dee Why, but maybe by dusk there’ll be some crazy mixed up wind swell lumps into the waist plus to even chestish range… never know… it could happen…

We’re due to get a south change through tomorrow, but it doesn’t look at this stage as though it’ll be bringing any swell with it.

TC June has formed southeast of Noumea, New Caledonia. According to the latest reports, June’s maximum sustained winds were near 35 knots/40 mph/62 kph and the storm is expected to strengthen slightly over the next several days.

Here’s what the Bureau says:

Category 1 Tropical Cyclone June was located over the Coral Sea near New Caledonia. The cyclone is tracking towards the south southeast.

Tropical Cyclone June is expected to produce a prolonged period of gale
force winds, heavy rainfall and moderate to heavy swells over Norfolk Island on Sunday and Monday.

Damaging winds averaging above 75 km/h with gusts of about 100 km/h are
expected to develop on Norfolk Island by about midday on Sunday and persist
through the remainder of Sunday into Monday morning.
The wind is expected to ease later on Monday.

Heavy rainfall with localised flooding is expected during Sunday afternoon with
rain easing overnight Sunday.

A heavy northerly swell will build on Sunday and Monday to more than 3 metres
as the system approaches, and shift to the west from Tuesday.

So, does that mean we’ll get waves here? Well, maybe. But from the shape of this morning’s swell modelling it really doesn’t look as though Sydney will see any swell energy from TC June. There might be something noticeable as you get up toward the Qld border but I wouldn’t be packing the car at this stage for a trip north.

Have yourself a great Saturday everyone!

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea is steered eastwards ahead of weak cold front and associated trough moving over the southern Tasman Sea today. The trough will slowly extend across New South Wales today before weakening and stalling on Sunday near Seal Rocks. A south to southeasterly wind change is expected behind the trough associated with an elongated ridge of high pressure extending from southwest of Western Australia.
Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Winds
North to northeasterly 20 to 25 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres.
Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre around dawn.
Sunday 19 January
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots shifting south to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots in early morning.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
Monday 20 January
Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
East to northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.

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