"Stay happy and you'll be perfectly fine" - Jack Norris

Churning Saturday start

Hello Friends,

Ocean was a heaving mess at 0700 thanks to nearly 5 metres (!) of very raw looking 12 sec period SE swell and 20-25 kts of SW-SSW wind. The ocean was an unpleasant colour under dull grey skies and the odd spit of rain.

Not surprisingly nobody was in the water that I could see. If you were super keen and super fit, there would possibly be the odd makeable section at the point, but the beachy was a complete write-off.

The wind forecast tells us to expect the direction to be mainly southerly today. That will obviously limit the options pretty severely – quite apart from the crazy swell conditions.

To the extent it matters, tide was low this morning at 0435 and will hit high just before 1100.

While Saturday is looking pretty ordinary (with the possible exception of spots like the Bower and Collaroy), tomorrow’s prospects are more hopeful. The wind is set to be S-SW at 15-20 so, not ideal, but potentially do-able. Swell is modelled to decline through Saturday and to continue doing so into the coming week, but Sunday could still see some fun-size waves at spots that play nice with SE swell. Tide’ll be incoming on Sunday morning to a high of 1.45m at 1140, so there will be an increasing fatness factor. Still, the weather should be a bit better and the wind less of a factor…

Looking beyond the weekend, the general trend is projected to be toward the smaller end of the scale but not going flat. Monday in particular might be fun if the more optimistic models are right – ESE of 1.5 m at 10 sec with light NW wind and partly cloudy skies plus a ridiculously summery 24 high.

Longer range, there’s definitely a prospect for surfable energy most of the week and next weekend we might possibly see another 2-3m SE pulse…

That’s the kind of outlook I like.

Go well with your Saturday and have a top old weekend!

empty dee why point wave
Sorta plausible but…
messy surf at dee why beach
Beachy unapproachable at 0700

Weather Situation

A complex low pressure system lies over the central Tasman Sea, while a high over New Zealand extends a ridge into southeast Australia. The low over the Tasman Sea is expected to gradually shift towards New Zealand over the weekend. Windy conditions and large swells forecast to continue along much of the New South Wales coast, easing over the weekend as the low moves away and weakens. A cold front from the Southern Ocean is expected to reach the Eden Coast on Tuesday with a gusty southwest change forecast to move up the coast during the day.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Southerly 20 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots in the morning.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Southeasterly 2.5 to 3 metres, decreasing to 2 metres later in the evening.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Sunday 31 August

Winds
South to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots turning east to southeasterly below 10 knots during the afternoon and evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Southeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres later in the evening.

Monday 1 September

Winds
Northwesterly below 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots during the morning then tending northerly 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the afternoon or evening.
Swell
Southeasterly 1.5 metres, tending easterly 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.