"Stay happy and you'll be perfectly fine" - Jack Norris

Inbound swell

Hello Friends,

We have a mix of swell this morning. The main energy is from the south at a couple of metres with an average period of about 9 seconds, but there’s a metre or so from the NE at about 8 seconds. Wind is out of the WSW at 10-15 kts for now, but the Bureau’s hoisted the gale pennant for 20-30 kts S-SW later. Should be rainy this afternoon.

As of 0700 there really wasn’t much going on at Dee Why. No one was in the water, although the surface conditions were much cleaner than yesterday’s forecast predicted. But the swell is too south to make an impression and the wind will be along soon. The Bureau’s swell modelling shows the energy coming up steadily and by sunset they’re predicting 5-6 metres with 30-40 kts of south wind.

Interestingly, the MetEye model is showing the wind being offshore across most of the day ahead of the change. So, I’ll be keeping an eye on it to see if we get some forerunner sets before the south wind hits.

Next tide is a high at 1320.

Outlook is for the swell to peak tomorrow but to be pretty solid through Thursday. The big question will be whether or not the wind goes SW enough to make it possible to get a wave in one of the south corners. Some of the models are pointing toward that as a possibility tomorrow and a likelihood for Thursday morning.

Interesting if nothing else.

Go well with your Tuesday everybody!

 

 

dee why beach
No takers at 0710
dy point wave
A tiny teaser

Weather Situation

A cold front is currently crossing northeastern New South Wales with an associated southerly change moving along central and northern parts of the coast today. A low centre developing within the trough is expected to move offshore and deepen during today, with an embedded trough wrapping around the low centre leading to a further intensification of winds, including gales developing between Gabo Island and Seal Rocks today. Conditions will gradually ease during the second half of the week as the low slowly moves further eastwards into the Tasman Sea, and a strengthening high approaches from the west.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight

Gale Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Southwesterly 15 to 20 knots tending northwest to southwesterly in the morning then tending south to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots in the evening. Winds reaching up to 35 knots in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning, then increasing to 2 to 4 metres around midday.
Swell
Northeasterly 2 to 3 metres, tending easterly 3 metres during the morning, then increasing to 3 to 4 metres around midday.
Weather
Cloudy. 95% chance of rain. Rain and showers heavy at times late this afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Wednesday 15 October

Gale Warning for Wednesday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Southerly 25 to 30 knots, reaching up to 35 knots in the morning. Winds turning southwesterly during the afternoon and evening.
Seas
3 to 4 metres, decreasing to 2.5 to 3 metres around midday.
Swell
Southeasterly 3 to 5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 90% chance of showers. Rain and showers heavy at times in the morning. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore in the morning.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Thursday 16 October

Winds
Southwesterly 15 to 25 knots becoming variable about 10 knots during the morning then becoming east to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Southeasterly 3 to 4 metres, tending southerly 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 40% chance of showers.