15 kts of southerly blowing at 0530 and about 1.6 metres of 6-sec period SSE wind swell hitting the MHL buoy. And there’s a high tide a little after 0800. Not a recipe for great things I’d have to say. In fact, I’d probably-in given those numbers. Best I reckon you could hope for would be some floppy little knee to waist high lumps at the most exposed spots (where the wind’ll be strongest too).
Outlook for the next week isn’t overly impressive. At this stage I’d say finding anything above waist high will be an achievement. Here’s hoping the models are undercalling it…
Here are few postcards from the last few days of swell in Cali. My mate Peter and I scored waves all by ourselves two days running. It can happen, even in California…
A high pressure system over the northern Tasman Sea extends a ridge towards the Queensland coast, while a weak trough lies to its south over the NSW Mid North Coast. This trough resulted in a brief southerly change on Friday; however as the trough stalls and weakens on the north coast on Saturday the high will again become dominant allowing winds to tend back to the northeast, especially in the south. Another weak trough and southerly change affect southern and central areas late Sunday. A more substantial southerly change appears likely with the arrival of a cold front early next week.
Forecast for Saturday until midnight
- Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots, reaching up to 20 knots offshore early in the morning. Winds turning northeasterly in the evening.
- 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
- Northerly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
- Partly cloudy.
Sunday 23 November
- North to northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots early in the morning then tending southeast to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots in the late evening.
- Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
- Northerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
- Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers in the late afternoon and evening.
Monday 24 November
- South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots shifting north to northwesterly during the afternoon.
- Below 1 metre.
- Northerly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore.
- Cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon.