"Stay happy and you'll be perfectly fine" - Jack Norris

TG’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 26 May 2016:

Eight day outlook for Sydney:

Just a touch windy today.  The fresh to gusty Northwesterly is gradually knocking down the largish surf that’s been around, While some new swell will be coming this way from a Southerly direction it will have a lot of SSW in it, which means the bigger stuff will be passing right on by. How much if any gets in will be a battle some days between  fresh offshores and the size, period and direction of the swell~~~~~~~~ TG’s bestimates follow:) :

Friday: down more than today, say call it lower end of the 1-2 metre range at places that get dead South swell

Saturday: coming up in the 2-3 metre range, dead South spots

Sunday: down a bit 2, 2+ metres dead South

Monday: going down in the 1-2 metre range dead South places

Tuesday: low end of the 1-2 metre range South East, with light onshore

Wednesday: about 1 metre South East light onshore with it

Thursday: up a tad in the 1-2 metre range South East

Friday: down again to about 1 metre or so South East.

In other related news:

The Bureau says the present El Nino is over (see story below) which is great news for the Bush…It’s been very dry out there. Conditions are likely to change from what they’ve been on the coast too.

In the Sea:

MHL tracks the current water temp at 21

image

Tides:

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2015-16.pdf

In the Air:

MSLP Analysis for Thu May 26 00:00:00 2016 AUTC

Wind:

https://www.windyty.com/-33.855/151.216?-33.855,150.640,9

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Max 21
Possible morning rain.
Chance of any rain: 30%

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of rain this morning. Increasing sunny periods in the afternoon. Winds northerly 20 to 30 km/h tending northwesterly in the afternoon then becoming light in the late evening.

UV Alert from 11:10 am to 12:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon Location Min Max
Possible morning rain. Sydney 21
Possible morning rain. Penrith 21
Possible morning rain. Liverpool 21
Possible morning rain. Terrey Hills 19
Possible morning rain. Richmond 21
Possible morning rain. Parramatta 21
Possible morning rain. Campbelltown 21
Possible morning rain. Bondi 20

Friday 27 May

Summary
Min 12
Max 19
Sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10%

Sydney area

Sunny. Areas of fog in the outer west in the early morning. Winds west to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h increasing to 25 to 35 km/h early in the morning then tending west to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the afternoon and evening.

Saturday 28 May

Summary
Min 10
Max 18
Possible shower. Windy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30%

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning westerly 25 to 40 km/h during the morning then decreasing to 15 to 25 km/h during the evening.

Sunday 29 May

Summary
Min 10
Max 19
Sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10%

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds westerly 20 to 30 km/h.

Monday 30 May

Summary
Min 11
Max 19
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 50%

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers, most likely during the morning. Winds west to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h turning south to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Tuesday 31 May

Summary
Min 12
Max 19
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 5 mm
Chance of any rain: 70%

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers. Light winds becoming southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 1 June

Summary
Min 13
Max 18
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 2 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 70%

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers. Light winds becoming southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

El Nino over, BoM says, so winter rain could be on the way

Updated Wed at 12:12pm

The latest El Nino cycle is over, which could lead to a wet winter, according to the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM).

Key points:

  • El Nino events cause extensive warming of the Pacific Ocean
  • This leads to lower-than-average rainfall and periods of higher temperatures across Australia
  • El Nino events occur every three to six years

The bureau’s modelling shows ocean surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific have cooled to neutral levels over the past fortnight.

Waters beneath the surface have also cooled.

Forecaster Michael Knepp said conditions were back to neutral and the bureau was now on La Nina watch.

During La Nina events, rainfall in winter and spring is above average over northern, central and eastern Australia.

“[There’s] a greater than 50 per cent chance that we might be in La Nina conditions later in the year,” Mr Knepp said.

“That’s not a certain thing, just something to keep an eye on over the next few months.”

International climate models indicate the tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to cool.

Six of eight models suggest La Nina is likely to form during winter.

Mr Knepp said more rainfall could be expected across the region if predictions were correct, but the outlook accuracy at this time of year was low.

El Nino contributes to drought conditions

El Nino has contributed to drought conditions over the majority of Queensland. Currently, 85 per cent of Queensland is drought declared.

Queensland grazier Peter Whip said the prolonged drought had been devastating for farmers.

Mr Whip, whose property is south of Longreach, said winter rainfall was better than nothing.

“You either want a lot or none,” he said.

“It can actually do more harm than good because if we have got a little bit of dry feed from the summer rain.

“Sometimes with that winter rain, if we get 50 points, it can actually wreck the feed you’ve got.”

Rainfall deficiency across Australia

The bureau said almost the entire western half of Victoria was experiencing severe rainfall deficiency.

The rainfall deficiency in Tasmania covers much of the state.

Areas of serious to severe deficiency remain through inland Queensland and into northern New South Wales.

Large areas of South Australia and Western Australia are also experiencing serious rainfall deficiency.

El Nino has been impacting on Australia for a year.