The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted by: on June 23rd, 2016

Surf forecast issued Thursday 23 June 2016: Eight day outlook for Sydney :

The Daily ran a good story by John Morcombe this week about ‘The Storm of  the Century’… Not that little blow the other day…but the Sygna storm of May 1974.  Other significant recorded storms are mentioned, but I don’t remember them first hand !…

http://newslocal.newspaperdirect.com/epaper/iphone/homepage.aspx#_articlebd23dea4-41a6-40df-8c0f-c168906535a9

I remember May ’74 vividly because my neighbor’s roof took off and landed on mine at the height of the storm somewhere after midnight. . Virtually all Sydney beaches and many others along the coast experienced major erosion from the off-the-Richter surf and 165km wind.

I also couldn’t believe that a mate, ‘Friendly’, was out in the Water Police boat rescuing people from a yacht in trouble.  The full story of that bravery is here…

http://www.pittwateronlinenews.com/a-cruel-sea-by-gordon-wellings-qc–bc.php

Now what got me onto that…Oh yeah the surf outlook for the coming week. Some larger waves expected at times with offshore wind should make it fun for some.  Different situation to 1974 – not the same wind outlook… but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a bit of scouring/gouging of sand off some beaches….maybe not on the one day, but after a week of sustained sizable waves as looks likely ??? especially if coinciding with high tide ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Friday: at first around 1 metre or less left over from today at places open to the South…then starting to come up later

Saturday : 2-3, 3-4 metres at places open to dead South swell and then into southern corners, with some oomph at times

Sunday: 3-4, 2-3 metres, and ditto

Monday: 1-2 metres, ditto

Tuesday: 2-3 metres  South East and East

Wednesday: 2-3 metres maybe more, South East

Thursday: upper end of 1-2 metre range East South East

Friday: down in the 1-2 metre range.

Water temp is starting to cool…around 18.

image

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 0%

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds northwesterly 25 to 35 km/h decreasing to 20 to 25 km/h in the late evening.

Friday 24 June

Summary
Min 12
Max 17
Windy. Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10%

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower in the west, near zero chance elsewhere. Winds north to northwesterly 30 to 45 km/h turning westerly 35 to 50 km/h in the morning then decreasing to 25 to 35 km/h in the evening.

No UV Alert, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Saturday 25 June
Summary
Min 7
Max 16
Sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 5%

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds west to southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h.

Sunday 26 June

Summary
Min 7
Max 16
Becoming cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 5%

Sydney area

Becoming cloudy. Light winds.

Monday 27 June

Summary
Min 8
Max 15
Possible late shower.
Possible rainfall: 3 to 10 mm
Chance of any rain: 50%

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the afternoon then increasing to 25 to 35 km/h during the evening.

Tuesday 28 June

Summary
Min 8
Max 18
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 60%

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Medium (50%) chance of showers. Winds southwesterly 25 to 35 km/h turning southerly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 29 June

Summary
Min 7
Max 18
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 30%

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Light winds.

Thursday 30 June

Summary
Min 8
Max 17
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 40%

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. Light winds becoming west to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h later.

In the air

MSLP Analysis for Thu Jun 23 12:00:00 2016 AUTC

Wind :

https://www.windyty.com/?-33.861,151.206,2

Tides :

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2015-16.pdf

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