Quiet now but power coming

Posted by: on November 24th, 2016
dy beach

Nothing much at No Mans

DY point

Point too small to surf at 0620

Hello Friends,

When your humble correspondent climbed aloft for his first look at the ocean today the North Head weather station was showing the coming from the WSW around 10-20 kts. There wasn’t anything going on surfwise though. The point was unpopulated and I couldn’t see anybody in the water north from there toward No Mans. Tide was high at 0540 and will be low again at 1150.
The MHL buoy data hasn’t updated since yesterday afternoon, but their nearshore forecast model is projecting SSE swell of 1.5 metres at 8 seconds in the morning, bumping up to 2 metres at 10 seconds. And the Bureau is projecting the south swell to increase to 2.5-3 metres, in fact the Bureau has added a large and powerful surf condition warning for this afternoon.
As the swell kicks in, there could be options in the south corners, so I’ll be keeping an eye on it and updating if anything interesting happens.
Tomorrow morning’s looking good on the forecasts, with the Bureau and other modellers predicting solidly overhead sets at south magnets – and the wind’s not supposed to be much of a factor either. Oh, and it should be sunny and mild as well.
On that cheerful note, I’ll wish you a terrific day and remind you to check back later this afternoon when I’m planning to update on swell conditions (probably around 1530).

Weather Situation
Southerly winds over the waters will ease during over the next two days as a ridge of high pressure extends from the west.
Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Winds
Southwesterly 15 to 25 knots turning southerly 15 to 20 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, increasing to 2.5 to 3 metres during the afternoon.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions in the afternoon and evening are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Friday 25 November
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming west to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots early in the morning then shifting east to southeasterly in the middle of the day.
Seas
Around 1 metre, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning, then increasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 3 to 4 metres, decreasing to 2.5 to 3 metres during the morning.
Weather
Mostly sunny. 30% chance of a shower offshore at night. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Saturday 26 November
Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning east to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the morning then becoming east to southeasterly about 10 knots during the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 20% chance of a shower.

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