Archive for November 2016

TG’s Surf Forecast

Posted on November 17th, 2016 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 17 November 2016: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

First of all: Happy 60th Everyone!!  Huh?  See below at the end of the forecast>>>

Oh so many weather and wind changes ahead, flopping and slopping the ocean around at will, it’s enough to make you seasick just thinking about it… TG’s best advice…>>>>>>>>>>

Stay on your toes, keep your sense of balance and perspective, consider what might happen, then see what actually happens, be flexible to the changes in your world that you can’t control… and look for opportunities as they arise…

Oh look, is he talking about The World outlook, or The Surf outlook…Again! ???

Who knows….Maybe it’s both??!! …(again)….

The Surf >>>>>> Also, watch out for Blueys in abundance…

Friday: down from today’s bit of size that hit places open to SSE swell, to mostly at the lower end of the 1-2 metre range, but with possible sets at the upper end with some oomphiness …East South East…

Saturday: down, to say 1  – 1 + metre area South East

Sunday: down again to around 1 metre dead South places only…but with maybe a little more pushing in from a strong pulse

Monday: up into the 1-2 metre range dead South, with maybe sets getting into southern corners

Tuesday: in the 1-2 metre range North East windswell

Wednesday: somewhere in the 1-2 metre range dead South places only

Thursday: 1-2 metre range South East

Airy things

MSLP Analysis for Thu Nov 17 00:00:00 2016 AUTC

Wind

https://www.windytv.com/?2016-11-21-18,-33.879,151.219,6

Watery bits

Water temp is around 21…..

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2015-16.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Max 24
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 20%

Sydney area

Cloud clearing in the afternoon.. Slight (20%) chance of a shower along the coastal fringe early this morning. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Light winds becoming northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h in the early afternoon then tending northerly 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis IconLocationMinMax
Partly cloudy.Sydney24
Partly cloudy.Penrith28
Partly cloudy.Liverpool27
Partly cloudy.Terrey Hills23
Partly cloudy.Richmond28
Partly cloudy.Parramatta26
Partly cloudy.Campbelltown27
Partly cloudy.Bondi23

 

Friday 18 November

Summary
Min 16
Max 32
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 0%

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h tending northwest to southwesterly in the early afternoon then becoming light in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Saturday 19 November

Summary
Min 19
Max 25
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 0%

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds south to southeasterly 25 to 35 km/h tending east to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Sunday 20 November

Summary
Min 18
Max 25
Cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.2 mm
Chance of any rain: 5%

Sydney area

Cloudy. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Monday 21 November

Summary
Min 20
Max 31
Possible afternoon shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40%

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Tuesday 22 November

Summary
Min 21
Max 32
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 20%

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Winds northerly 15 to 20 km/h tending northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 23 November

Summary
Min 19
Max 25
Showers increasing.
Possible rainfall: 2 to 6 mm
Chance of any rain: 80%

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. Winds east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h shifting southerly 20 to 30 km/h during the morning.

Happy 60th Anniversary!

The first significant public demonstration in Australia of modern malibu surfing took place at Avalon Beach on Sunday 18 November 1956. Its far reaching effects revolutionised the sport of surfing and Australian beach culture.

After competing in a surf carnival organised by Avalon Beach Surf Life Saving Club, American lifeguards here to take part in the 1956 Melbourne Olympics surf carnival, went surfing on their surfboards and carved their way across the waves off South Avalon.

“They paddled their boards out in front of the rocks at South Avalon and we all laughed thinking they’d get smashed on the rocks.  Everyone was amazed when they turned their boards and rode across the face of the wave in front of the rocks.  Surfboard riding from then on was totally different.” (the late Max Watt Life Member Avalon Beach SLSC)

The era of the ‘toothpick’ hollow boards ended on that day and that of the modern malibu, the forerunner of today’s surfboards had begun.  From that day on surfing changed to become whatever it is on the day you are reading this.

 Enjoy your surfing…..enjoy your history.  PS they briefly rode their boards at Cronulla on 17 November 1956 the day before Avalon’s major surf carnival, which was a warm up for them competing at Torquay later.. Good luck to Cronulla for organising its celebrations.. but we all know the Northern Beaches is the Centre of the Surfing Universe anyway and we keep things low key… 🙂

Pic shows ABSLSC members and members of the US Team, which included legendary big wave rider Greg Noll, at Av 18 Nov 1956. The late Norman May radio broadcaster is also in the photo as a carnival official.

abslsc-1956-surf-carnival-with-names-by-norma-watt-001

 


Little bumps for the keen

Posted on November 17th, 2016 in Dee Why.
dy point

Set arrives at the point just before 0700

dy beach surfing

Scrappy but surfable up toward No Mans at 0700

dy point

Knee high line amuses surfer at Dee Why

Hello Friends,

Mostly cloudy start to Thursday with a light SSW wind at 0700 and an incoming tide (high’s at 1100) for the first shift at Dee Why. A small crew at the point was chasing mostly knee to waist high waves at the point and various other similar size peaks were seeing interest up the beach. I did see one chest high set at the point, so there should be the odd bigger one in the mix.
At 0500 the MHL Sydney buoy was showing 2.4 metres of 9-second SSE swell, so if you found waves somewhere yesterday, there ought to be something there again this morning.
From the look of the models, the Bureau’s call for the swell to fade over the next 24 hours, but, with luck, the waves won’t go away entirely. The Goat should be along with his usual weekend and week ahead forecast later today, so as always I’ll be keen to see how he’s reading the entrails.
Have yourself a top old Thursday and get up to some good where you can!

Weather Situation
A low pressure system near New Zealand and a high pressure system centred over southern Victoria are both slowly moving east. Winds will shift northeasterly during Thursday as the high moves over the western Tasman Sea. A southerly change is expected to move up southern and central parts of the coast on Friday and Saturday, before stagnating on the Mid North Coast.
Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Winds
South to southeasterly about 10 knots tending northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the early afternoon then tending northerly in the late evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by early evening.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Cloud clearing.
Friday 18 November
Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, tending southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Saturday 19 November
Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots shifting southerly 15 to 25 knots during the morning then tending southeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
1st Swell
South to southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


South Curly at 0900

Posted on November 16th, 2016 in Surf Reports.

On the way to the physio spotted this. Hold that thought Huey, I’ll be back
in a bit.{CAPTION}


Sunny, light winds and little lines

Posted on November 16th, 2016 in Dee Why.
dy beach

Little lines showing at No Mans but no surfers visible

dy point surf

Little lines at the point at 0715

dy point surf

A few folks in the water at the point as of 0715

Hello Friends,

Clean little lines coming from the south this morning but it’s only just big enough to make the point surfable and up the beach toward Longy the size is similar (knee to waist) but the shutdowns are frequent.
The MHL buoy’s 0500 observations recorded 1.75 metres of 9-second SSE swell and the North Head weather station was showing 6-8 kts of westerly breeze at 0730.
Should be sunny all day and the wind should okay until mid day when the Bureau says we can expect a southerly to turn up. Next tide is a high at 1015.
The models offer a mixed picture for our near-term prospects, but overall the trend lines generally point to a steady decline into the really marginal to near flat range as we head into the weekend. At least a couple of the predictions show tomorrow morning as a prospect for the early. The Bureau says the wind’ll still be south, so here’s hoping for an early morning reprieve and a few more bumps in the waist high range at the south magnets.
Go well with your day and keep on smilin’!

Weather Situation
A low pressure system near New Zealand and a high pressure system centred near Adelaide are both slowly moving east. These two systems will direct generally southerly winds across New South Wales waters today. Winds will shift northeasterly during Thursday as the high moves over the western Tasman Sea. A southerly change is expected to move up southern and central parts of the coast on Friday and Saturday.
Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Winds
Westerly below 10 knots tending southwesterly 10 to 15 knots in the morning then tending southerly 15 to 20 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres by the late afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Thursday 17 November
Winds
South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots shifting north to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots from the late afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 20% chance of a shower inshore in the early morning.
Friday 18 November
Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1 to 2 metres offshore.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, tending southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Mostly sunny.


Swell swells up overnight

Posted on November 15th, 2016 in Dee Why.
Dy point

Scrappy looking but solidly into the surfable range at 0700

dy point

Typical set at 0700

dy beach

Somewhat fat and lumpy up the beach toward No Mans

Hello Friends,

It should be southerly soon, but at 0700 when I grabbed the snaps, the wind was coming lightly from the west and there was a solid crew on the point chasing the output of a 3 metre, 9-sec south swell. Sets looked to be in the chest to shoulder plus range, but it wouldn’t surprise me if there were bigger ones in the mix too. Up the beach the waves seemed more lumpy and affected by the tide coming into the high at 0920. Wind should go south 15-25 kts and then SE this afternoon.
Weather should be partly cloudy with a high around 22.
From the look of the forecasts, the swell will peak this morning and then gradually fade back a little overnight – but not dramatically so. And tomorrow should see light and variable wind early, going SW later.
Wednesday is predicted to be southerly-wind affected again, but swell’s predicted to still be in the surfable range. Beyond that, the picture is more varied but mostly uninspiring. Some models show the possibility of something on Thursday and then not much of anything after that.
Get in if you can this morning and keep the fingers crossed for tomorrow!

Weather Situation
A low pressure system lies near New Zealand and a high pressure system over the Bight are both slowly moving east. These two systems will direct generally southerly winds across New South Wales waters on Tuesday and Wednesday. On Thursday winds will shift northeasterly as the high moves over the western Tasman Sea. A southerly change is expected to move up southern and central parts of the coast late Friday or Saturday.
Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots shifting south to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 metre around midday.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 20% chance of a shower this morning.
Wednesday 16 November
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming southwesterly 10 to 20 knots in the morning then tending southerly around midday.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Mostly sunny. 20% chance of a shower offshore in the morning.
Thursday 17 November
Winds
South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots shifting northerly 15 to 20 knots during the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon or evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


Flat for Monday morning

Posted on November 14th, 2016 in Dee Why.
dy point

No sign of waves this morning at Dee Why

dy beach

Utter flatness at No Mans as of 0645


Hello Friends,
Sparkling clear morning with a steady offshore breeze and, unfortunately, absolutely no swell energy. At 0700 it was impressively flat at Dee Why and from the look of the swell models and the Bureau’s forecast, we can’t expect anything to show up until after the 20-25 kt southerly arrives this afternoon. Even then, I’d be surprised if there was much of interest in the protected spots.
Tomorrow promises to be southerly all day, but at least the swell should come up with the wind and on Wednesday the wind is expected to go more SW while the swell holds at 2-2.5 metres according to the Bureau.
Longer range outlook currently points to small but not flat conditions through to next week. There’s a fair amount of variability in the predictions though…
Have yourself a top old Monday everyone!

Weather Situation
A complex low pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea with a trough over the state moves east bringing a strong westerly airstream across the waters. Behind this low a high pressure system will move east over western NSW, extending a southerly change over much of the coastal waters today. This high pressure system will then remain over the state for the remainder of the week.
Forecast for Monday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Westerly 20 to 25 knots turning southerly 20 to 25 knots in the early afternoon. Winds reaching up to 30 knots during the morning and again in the late evening.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by early evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 90% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore during this afternoon and evening.
Tuesday 15 November
Strong Wind Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots early in the morning.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 40% chance of showers offshore in the morning and early afternoon. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere.
Wednesday 16 November
Winds
South to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots tending west to southwesterly during the morning then turning southerly 15 to 20 knots during the day.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon or evening.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


Marginal swell but a perfect morning otherwise

Posted on November 13th, 2016 in Dee Why.
dy beach and pooint

Little bump gets caught at Kiddies at 0800

dy beach surf

Tiny bumps up the beach toward No Man’s

dy point

Lots of foam but no real waves at the point

Hello Friends,

Warm with light and variable WNW breeze as of 0800 on sunny Sunday morning. There’s a tiny 8-second period east wind bump drifting into Dee Why but it seemed to be getting swamped by the 0745 high tide. The Bureau says the wind’ll come around to the west and be into the 25-30 kt range. Being straight offshore, you’d have to expect it to blow the weak little wind swell flat.
Tomorrow should see westerlies and no real waves in the morning and then strong southerlies in the afternoon which should be followed by a gradual increase in south swell. Tuesday’s looking to be southerly with some prospects in corners out of the wind.
That exciting looking long range forecast chart I shared yesterday has reverted to a much less interesting prediction today. Still it does seem possible we’ll see some okay waves from the south with light winds and sunny skies for Wednesday-Thursday. I’m hoping for chest plusses at standout spots.
Have yourself a great Sunday everyone!


Saturday throws the switch to sunshine

Posted on November 12th, 2016 in At large.
north narrabeen surfers

North Narrabeen 1245

north narrabeen surfers

Busy at Northy around 1245

curl curl surfer

Popping the top off a little wind wave at south Curly about noon

curl curl surfer

Curly wind wave section briefly playful

Hello Friends,
Had to run the odd errand around midday and since I was out and about I checked the surf again. There sitll aren’t any waves to speak of at Dee Why or Manly for that matter, but both mid to south Curly and North Narrabeen had a few very soft knee to waist high bumps to play on at midday. Pretty busy of course and the waits between even barely catchable waves were long. But it was hot and sunny and bright and summery, so folks were just getting in and taking what came their way.


Rainy and blustery Saturday morning

Posted on November 12th, 2016 in At large.
dy

Dee Why this morning at 0700

dy point

Close-up of the point showing nothing surfable at 0700

Hello Friends,

Energy levels at a low ebb as the day gets started. MHL shows the swell as about 0.7 metres from the SE at 7 seconds. I didn’t make the usual Saturday morning picture run because of the steady rain, but I did brave the elements from the crows nest to grab a couple snaps. As you can see, it’s pretty close to flat. So, no surf today from the look of it.
The models are telling a story of weak and tiny conditions for another few days – although tomorrow should be sunny and breezy.
Right now it looks as though there could be a small south pulse on Tuesday-Wednesday. There’s some variation among the predictions, but it currently looks hopeful for around 2 metres at 10-12 seconds from the SSE with brisk to strong SSW wind on both days. With any luck, there’ll be something surfable for a day or two beyond.
Most of the models aren’t predicting much for the end of the week, but Stormsurf is showing the Tasman full of furious energy by Friday-Saturday…

Ulp! Next Saturday could be interesting...

Ulp! Next Saturday could be interesting…


Have yourself a great Saturday one and all!

Weather Situation
Freshening northerly winds along the New South Wales coast ahead of a westerly change during Monday associated with a complex low pressure system crossing the coast from the west. Winds are expected to turn southerly on Monday as a high pressure system moves towards Tasmania extending a ridge behind the low.
Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots offshore during the morning. Winds shifting west to northwesterly below 10 knots in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing below 1.5 metres by early evening.
Swell
Northeast to southeasterly below 1 metre, tending northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
Weather
Cloudy. 90% chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Sunday 13 November
Strong Wind Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast
Winds
West to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots becoming variable about 10 knots early in the morning then becoming westerly 15 to 20 knots in the early afternoon. Winds reaching up to 30 knots offshore in the late evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Sunny.
Monday 14 November
Winds
Westerly 20 to 30 knots turning south to southwesterly during the morning.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
South to southeasterly below 0.5 metres, tending south to southwesterly 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 40% chance of showers.


Another day on hold

Posted on November 11th, 2016 in Dee Why.
No sign of a wave at No Mans

No sign of a wave at No Mans

dy beach

The point quiet again this morning

Hello Friends,

Swell? No, sorry. Not this morning at Dee Why. There’s about a metre of 7-sec SE wind bump out at sea according to the MHL buoy at 0500. Wind was light from the SSW as of 0745, but it should be coming around to the easterly quarters as the day warms up. Unfortunately there’s no prospect of an improvement on the surf front today. Should be a pleasant 24 and partly cloudy though.
As he has at least every week for nearly 20 years(!) the Goat has once again applied his deep knowledge to the numbers and forecasts on your behalf. So have a quick read and put yourself wise on the prospects for the coming week.
Go well with your day!

Weather Situation
A high pressure system near Tasmania and a deepening low pressure trough over central Australia will direct east to northeasterly winds over New South Wales waters today. Winds will strengthen and shift northerly on Saturday as the trough approaches from the west. The trough is forecast to move over the Tasman Sea late Saturday, with a cold front following in its wake. Fresh to strong west to southwesterly winds are expected on Sunday and Monday after the passage of the front.
Forecast for Friday until midnight
Winds
South to southeasterly about 10 knots becoming easterly 10 to 15 knots in the early afternoon then tending northeasterly in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 30% chance of a shower early in the morning.
Saturday 12 November
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots turning northwesterly in the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday, then decreasing below 1 metre during the afternoon.
Weather
Cloudy. 90% chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Sunday 13 November
Winds
West to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots becoming variable about 10 knots during the morning then becoming westerly 20 to 30 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Sunny.


 

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