Archive for December 2016

The Goat’s Christmas Surf Forecast and TG’s Christmas Message

Posted on December 22nd, 2016 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 22 December 2016: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Summer has arrived and just in time for Christmas… I can already taste the turkey, smell the ham, savour the wine, and already feel I’ve eaten too much pudding!  ( I heard that person who said you look like you have already!)…

Lots of balmy Noreaster days, and surf  to have fun in…(or, in which to have fun, if you talk like that)~~~~~~~~~~~~~

which is what surfing should be all about.

Friday: down an little from this afternoon’s little uptick …1-2 metre range lowish end from the South East

Saturday: up a little in the 1-2 metre range East South East

Sunday Chrissy Day: 1-2 metre range East North East

Monday: down a bit in the 1-2 metre range North East

Tuesday: 1-2 metre range North East

Wednesday: bigger windswell (because of… the wind) 1-2 metre range North East

Thursday: 1-2 metre range East.

TG’s Christmas Message for 2016

Have you all been good???  …………I can’t hear you!!!…………(muffled sound through speakers)…..

Well you’d have better, cause Santa knows all…

And you’d better stay good, cause he’s on his way…

Look! >>>> (who said he’s not real?!!?)

Have a safe and Happy Christmas.

TG

In the Air

Mostly clear skis for Santa to find his way to Sydney (might be a different story in The Kimberleys and NT)

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Dec 22 08:30:00 2016

MSLP Analysis for Thu Dec 22 06:00:00 2016 AUTC

In the Ocean

Water temp is currently around 21… Nice, if he wants to dip his toe in before heading off elsewhere… but I wouldn’t be surprised if it starts to cool after a few days of Nor Easters, say by Wednesday…

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2016-2017.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 5%

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Light winds.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 5:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Friday 23 December

Summary
Min 19
Max 24
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10%

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the outer west in the afternoon. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 5:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Saturday 24 December

Summary
Min 20
Max 27
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 20%

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of showers in the afternoon and early evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the west in the afternoon and early evening. Winds north to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 5:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Sunday 25 December

Summary
Min 21
Max 27
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 20%

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower in the afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm in the west in the afternoon. Winds northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h during the day.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 5:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 14 [Extreme]

Monday 26 December

Summary
Min 20
Max 31
Sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10%

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Slight (20%) chance of a shower in the outer west in the afternoon. Winds northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming north to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Tuesday 27 December

Summary
Min 23
Max 29
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 20%

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Winds northwest 15 to 20 km/h turning south to southeasterly 25 to 35 km/h during the morning then becoming southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 28 December

Summary
Min 22
Max 32
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 20%

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Thursday 29 December

Summary
Min 23
Max 34
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 30%

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.


Small grey morning at Dee Why

Posted on December 22nd, 2016 in Dee Why.
dy point

Set wave at the point – it faded a few seconds later

dy beach surf

Plausible looking section at Kiddies 0730

Hello Friends,

A light easterly wind and 2.4 metres of 9-sec SE swell out at sea were translating into surprisingly unimpressive conditions at Dee Why around 0730. Tide was dropping to the low at 1000 and the Bureau tells us the wind will be SE 10-15 kts later. So, pretty marginal, but if you’re really keen there should be some knee to waist plus options at magnets. Quality obviously won’t be too wonderful.
It’s Thursday, so the Goat should be along later with his weekend and week-ahead outlook. From my reading of the models, it looks like a couple more days of minor to near flat and then maybe a little uptick could start to bring things into the chest plus range from around Saturday. The models also seem to be pointing to a typical summer pattern of light morning winds with blown out afternoons. So, nothing special, but not hopelessly tiny either.
Have yourself a top old Thursday everyone and go well with your day!

WRL cam south Narrabeen

WRL view not terribly inspiring this morning

Weather Situation
A high pressure system near Tasmania is slowly moving east extending a ridge to the northeast and directing southeast to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast. The high will move over the Tasman Sea during Friday maintaining the ridge to the northwest and winds are expected to turn north to northeasterly.
Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1 to 2 metres offshore.
Weather
Cloudy. 20% chance of a shower inshore early this morning. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere.
Friday 23 December
Winds
Easterly about 10 knots tending northeasterly 15 to 20 knots early in the morning.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Saturday 24 December
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 30% chance of a shower.


Almost too small to surf

Posted on December 21st, 2016 in Dee Why.
dy beach

Very tiny at No Mans

dy beach

A sort of catchable one just up from Kiddies

dy point

The point slumbers on

Hello Friends,

Very tiny along the Dee Why and Narrabeen stretches this morning. I saw one person frantically paddle into a knee high dribbler just north of the club. They popped up and then fell off the back of the little bump. And that seemed to be a set. Some morning haze around at report time and wind coming from the SW at 6-8 kts. The MHL data from 0500 is showing 1.3 metres of 6 sec SSE wind swell. There was some 10 second component too, so exposed spots might possibly have the odd catchable one.
Tide is low at 0855 and back to high at 1500. Should get to 26 and there’s a possibility of a late shower. Wind is expected to go around to the SE at 15-20 kt and the Bureau says the swell should weaken a little more.
Have to say that I’m not hugely excited about the look of the forecast models for the coming week. This morning they’re pretty much all lining up on the outlook – which is for a metre or so from the NE at 8-9 seconds more or less, give or take. Could be more paddling practice than anything else.
Water’s nice though.
Go well with your day and stay happy everyone!

WRL cam picture

South Narrabeen t 0630 WRL cam

Weather Situation
Southerly winds will extend along the north coast today with the passage of a front. Winds will then tend southeast to northeasterly during Thursday and Friday as a high pressure system moves from The Bight to the western Tasman Sea in the wake of the front.
Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Winds
Southerly 20 to 25 knots tending south to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots this morning.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 20% chance of a shower inshore this evening. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere.
Thursday 22 December
Winds
East to southeasterly about 10 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 20% chance of a shower.
Friday 23 December
Winds
Easterly about 10 knots tending northeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the morning.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon or evening.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 20% chance of a shower.


Longy Tuesday morning

Posted on December 20th, 2016 in Surf Reports.

Went in for a quick sesh between the lagoon and the Pole. Distinctly
ordinary conditions. Mostly knee to waist. It was waist to shoulder and
much better up in front of the lifeguards but it was also far more crowded.
After I got out I grabbed my surf’-of scope rig and snapped some phone pics
of the action in front of the lifeguard hut…{CAPTION}
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Swell’s backed right off overnight

Posted on December 20th, 2016 in Dee Why.
dy beach

No Mans line at 0700

dee why point surfers

Hopefuls chasing the occasional set at the point

dy beach

A line up the beach at 0700

Hello Friends,
Late yesterday afternoon Longy fired up pretty impressively as 2-3 metres of 13-sec SE swell swept in. This morning sees it very much smaller but not flat. There were a few in the water at the point and others up the beach. The point looked to be in the waist to chest-ish range on the periodic sets and the beach seemed a touch bigger, but shutting down in the zone I could see from the crows nest (Kiddies to No Mans).
The MHL data from 0500 showed a 1.7 metre mix of 8-12 sec SE swell. Wind is light north as I write this but it’ll swing around to the N-NE 15-25 kts ahead of a 20-30 kt south change this evening.
Tide’s low as I write this at 0754 and it’ll then start running into the high at 1400.
Outlook broadly is for the swell to bump along at about this level for another 24 hours but it’s shaping to be southerly all day on Wednesday and SE on Thursday.
Looks like the plan is to hit it asap this morning because it could be a few days at least before the wind plays nice again.
Have yourself a great Tuesday one and all!

Weather Situation
A high pressure system in the western Tasman is moving east as a front approaches from the west. These two systems will direct fresh to strong northerly winds ahead of the front, with a southerly change expected over the south coast later today and the north coast on Wednesday with the passage of the front. Winds will tend southeast to northeasterly during Thursday and Friday as a new high pressure system moves from The Bight to the western Tasman Sea in the wake of the front.
Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots shifting southerly 20 to 30 knots in the late evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then decreasing to around 1 metre around midday.
2nd Swell
East to northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny day. 20% chance of a shower late this afternoon and evening.
Caution
Deceptively powerful surf conditions in the morning are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Wednesday 21 December
Strong Wind Warning for Wednesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots before dawn. Winds decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the morning then turning southeasterly in the early afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 metre around midday.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre around midday, then increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
2nd Swell
East to northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 40% chance of showers inshore in the late afternoon and evening. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere.
Thursday 22 December
Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 20 knots tending easterly 10 to 15 knots during the day.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 20% chance of a shower


Longy doing its thing Monday arvo

Posted on December 19th, 2016 in Surf Reports.

When I paddled out at about 5 there were just weird fat lines of
whitewater. An hour later it was another world and waves were rifling up
the beach from the tower. I whipped out my trusty surf-o-scope right and
grabbed you a few snaps.{CAPTION}
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Small lines at Dee Why

Posted on December 19th, 2016 in Dee Why.
dy point

Small crew chasing waist plus sets at the point 0640

dy beach

Nobody in the water up toward the pole

Hello Friends,

Another mainly grey skied morning for Monday at Dee Why. At 0640 there looked to be waist and a bit sets at the point and chest and a bit up the beach. Surface conditions are pretty choppy too. Wind was out of the ESE at 8-10 kts by 0700. According to the Bureau, it should gradually come around to the NE and get into the 15-20 kt range.
The Bureau posted a warning for deceptively powerful surf conditions for today and tomorrow and the MHL buoy was showing 2 metres of 9-10 second SE swell at 0500. Some of the models are projecting the periods to ramp up into the 14-16 sec range from the south.
Tide was low at 0700 and will be high again at 1315. Weather should be partly cloudy with a high of 24.
Looking ahead, it appears that we’ll be dealing with marginal to near, but with luck not-quite flat conditions. Just your usual serving of early summer ho-hum surf prospects really.
Have yourself a top old Monday everyone!

WRL cam

South Narrabeen from the WRL cam at daybreak Monday

Weather Situation
A high pressure system is moving eastwards past the south of the state, with S/SE winds along coastal waters gradually shifting more E/NE by Monday evening. The next southerly change will reach the far south coast on Tuesday night, then move northwards along New South Wales coastal waters during the middle part of the week.
Forecast for Monday until midnight
Winds
East to southeasterly about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 20% chance of a shower inshore in the morning and early afternoon. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere.
Caution
Deceptively powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Tuesday 20 December
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Mostly sunny day. 30% chance of a shower in the late afternoon and evening.
Caution
Deceptively powerful surf conditions in the morning are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Wednesday 21 December
Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots tending southeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the day.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
1st Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 40% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the evening.


Dee Why dreck surfed

Posted on December 18th, 2016 in Surf Reports.

Stopped by the beach on an errand just before 10 and grabbed some
surf-o-scope shots to share. Conditions were not good but you could get
chest plus sets in the chaotic shorebreak and waist plus bobblers at the
point. The beach was more consistent but harder work than the point and
from what I saw the average wave went further as well.{CAPTION}
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Grey, junky and dodgy looking water

Posted on December 18th, 2016 in Dee Why.
dy point

A hardy crew tackling sloppy conditions

dy beach

You could have it to yourself at 0730

Hello Friends,

Wind was 10-15 kts from the SE when I climbed aloft at 0730. According to the MHL data from 0500, swell was 3 metres from the SE at 9 seconds apart. As you can see from the pictures, it was lumpy and junky and the water looked like tea. Interestingly Beachwatch is rating all the northern beaches as ‘pollution is unlikely’.
Wind is set to go southerly 15-25 kts today before going back to the SE later. So, not the greatest prospects for any improvement to the surf conditions along the Dee Why to Longy stretch. Tide was low at 0600 and will be high again at 1225.
Tomorrow should see more south swell – and E-SE wind, so, like today, compromise on the quality front will be required if you want to get in. However the Bureau says the NE’r should kick in during the late afternoon which might at least open up a few possibilities in north corners.
The rest of the week is shaping to be typical early Sydney summer conditions – namely little wind waves generally from the eastern quarters and wind mostly from the NE.
Keep on smilin’ everyone and have a great Sunday!

Weather Situation
A cold front is crossing the western Tasman Sea this morning, while an associated southerly wind change is moving along northern coastal waters. On Sunday afternoon and Monday a high pressure system will move past to the south of the state, with winds gradually turning back around to the N/NE by Monday evening. The next southerly change will reach the far south coast on Tuesday night, then move northwards along New South Wales coastal waters during the middle part of the week.
Forecast for Sunday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots offshore early in the morning. Winds turning southeasterly in the afternoon.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy. 20% chance of a shower.
Monday 19 December
Winds
East to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning, then increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by early evening.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 20% chance of a shower inshore, near zero chance elsewhere.
Tuesday 20 December
Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning northerly 15 to 20 knots during the morning.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 2 metres.
2nd Swell
East to northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny. 30% chance of a shower.


Glassy and waves for the early

Posted on December 17th, 2016 in At large.
north narrabeen

Fun looking sets – Northy at 0615

DY beach

No Man’s set wave at 0630

Long Reef glassy and soft at 0630

Pole at DY

Pole set wave at 0630

dy point

Lone hopeful at Dee Why point 0630

Hello Friends,

A real window of opportunity this morning with light winds and consistent waist plus mix of south and NE wind swells. There were pretty fun looking (and busy of course) things coming in at Northy for the early. As well you could probably find the odd corner down the beach in close-out land, but you’d need to be lucky – and patient. Around at the Longy to Dee Why stretch, the brunt of the energy was mid beach with waist to chest plusses on the bombs and smooth, somewhat weak looking conditions.
The MHL buoy was 1.7 metres at 8 seconds at 0400. Tide was low at 0510 and is now coming into the high at 1135. As of 0650 wind was lightly NW at North Head. It should be coming up to 15-20 kts as the temp heads up to a high of 32 ahead of a vigorous south change this evening.
And the outlook? Why just have a squiz at the Goat’s forecast for the inside dope!
Have a great Saturday!

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea with a ridge to the northwest is directing north to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast. A cold front will bring a southerly change along the southern half of the coast today extending to the north coast early Sunday.
Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots, shifting southerly 20 to 30 knots in the late evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Mostly sunny. 20% chance of a shower. The chance of a thunderstorm in the early afternoon.
Sunday 18 December
Strong Wind Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots early in the morning. Winds turning southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 20% chance of a shower.
Monday 19 December
Winds
East to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning northeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the morning.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 metres during the evening.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres.
Weather
Cloudy.


 

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