Archive for January 2017

Surf report

Posted on January 22nd, 2017 in Surf Reports.

Nice morning sunny light se wind and size has gone down a bit but still
lots of whitewater at places open to the south. Other places yesterday
were quite small..so will be smaller today. Low has moved well away now
and weather will improve expected to go ne later.


Junky here and there

Posted on January 21st, 2017 in At large.
WRL south narrabeen

Messy and junky looking stuff at south Narra Sat am WRL cam

Hello Friends,

Saturday morning in Sydney saw 10 kts of steady southerly wind and lined up raw looking shoulder plus south swell under mostly cloudy skies. The wind was chewing it up anywhere with south exposure but the thanks to being 4m at 10 seconds out at sea, the swell was comparatively cleaner in the corners.
Wind should pick up though and by the time you get to low tide at 1020, the options could well be getting pretty limited.
The Bureau’s calling for the swell to roll off steadily after peaking today but it should still be surfable size tomorrow and Monday – although onshores will be a factor from mid-morning.
Beachwatch says the water’s 22.

sandspit santa barbara

Messy water, messy waves, but shoulder high sets at Sandspit.


Here in Santa Barbara the swell was pushing up into the shoulder high plus range at Sandspit this morning. That means it’ll be a lot bigger at magnets like Rincon. You could definitely ride them at Sandspit but the still building swell is raw and junky. The rain pelted down on drought-stricken soCal which is a good thing. Another band of rain hits Sunday and the swell’s due to be into the 4 metre range by tomorrow. Hope to get a picture or two to share maybe later today…
Have a good one!

Weather Situation
A deep low east of Bass Strait extends a trough of low pressure to the far north coast of New South Wales and is moving quickly east. The trough will pass through the northeast corner of the state this morning with a ridge of high pressure extending north along the coast in its wake. Strong to gale force southerly winds will ease during today. The high will establish itself over the Tasman Sea by Sunday with southeast to northeast winds tending northerly on Monday ahead of the next trough affecting the southern half on Tuesday.
Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots early in the morning. Winds decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening.
Seas
2.5 to 4 metres, decreasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres, increasing to 3 to 4 metres offshore during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Sunday 22 January
Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots becoming easterly below 10 knots in the morning then tending northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 2 metres around midday, then tending southeasterly 2 metres by early evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Monday 23 January
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots increasing to 25 to 30 knots during the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Southeasterly 1 to 2 metres, tending southerly below 1 metre during the evening.
2nd Swell
Northeast to southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.


Saturday surf

Posted on January 21st, 2017 in At large.

The overnight Southerly from a Low down in the Tasman has brought some waves which are in the 3-4 metre range offshore.  The Low is heading off quickly and is expected to be over NZ’s South Island by tonight.  With the swell from due South, most of it is going straight past and up the coast, but beaches open to the South are just a mess of whitewater.  The more sheltered corners that are protected from the wind don’t have much surf. The little they are getting is mostly poor quality and with low tide at 10.20 it’ll only get worse.

On the positive side… the 30 k wind has blown away the humidity; it’s a good breeze for racing yachts; and conditions will get better over coming days.  Have a good one.


Postcards from Cali: raw swell beginning to show

Posted on January 20th, 2017 in Santa Barbara.

The really big stuff is a good 24-36 hours away, but the slow rolling, long lined forerunners were obvious when I checked learner spot Leadbetter point in Santa Barbara around 3pm local time. Wind was powering up and writing off most spots, but there are little corners that are tolerably sideshore. Heaps of much needed rain in the forecast, so not sure how picture taking will go tomorrow, so stay tuned…

santa barbara

Strong sideshores masking the potential near 1000 steps, Santa Barbara

santa barbara

Fat and slow, but lines nonetheless at Leadbetter

santa barbara

Ironwoman ignores 14 degree water for a long fat glide at Leadbetter


Soft and small and grey early

Posted on January 20th, 2017 in At large.

Hello Friends,
An over the horizon summary for ya. As of 0630 wind was NNE 10-15kts at North Head and skies were grey (there’s a 90% chance of rain today in Sydney). The MHL buoy was picking up 1.6 metres of 6 sec SE bump. There was some 11 sec component in the mix, but looking at the cams there wasn’t really any sign of juice. Most places with SE exposure were knee to occasionally waist and quite soft looking. Tide’s low at 0915.
The Bureau’s posted a strong wind warning (see below) for NE going NW and then southerly. At the same time they’re saying the swell energy will decrease. Tomorrow looks pretty unappetizing with the call being for roaring southerlies and a ramping south swell. Said swell isn’t going to last long, so from here it would seem Sunday early might be the most optimal combo of wind and waves for the weekend.
Looking ahead, well, we have the Goat’s latest as of last night, so I’ll leave today’s Sydney prognosticating in his capable hooves.

nth bondi

NorthBondi RSL cam showing tiny mainly south wind swell lines at 0700


It rained in Santa Barbara last night and after mostly clear skies this morning, it looks like storm number 2 is on its way. Surf was confused and marginal, so yours truly is holding off on the 13-14 C water experience a bit longer. I’m not sure I’ve seen as dramatic a swell forecast as we have for this coming weekend here. If the models have it right up north of here on the central California coast there could be 20-30 ft waves at exposed locations. It won’t get as big down here, but I am wondering if this might rival the locally famous monster swell of ’69 (the year I started surfing!)… could be some interesting postcards for you late in the weekend…
Here’s how Sandspit looked on the surfline cam this morning:

Sandspit, Santa Barbara early this morning

Have a great day everyone!

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea is directing north to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast. A low pressure trough is expected to deepen across New South Wales today and move northeast, with an associated low pressure centre to the south moving over the southern Tasman Sea. This will bring a southerly change along the south coast this afternoon, extending to Sydney Waters overnight and to the far north coast Saturday morning. Winds are expected to turn back to north northeasterly during Sunday as a high pressure system moves east of Tasmania extending a ridge along the coast.
Forecast for Friday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Friday for Sydney Coast
Winds
North to northeasterly 20 to 30 knots becoming north to northwesterly 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon then shifting southerly 25 to 30 knots in the late evening.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy. 95% chance of showers. The chance of a gusty thunderstorm during this afternoon and evening.
Saturday 21 January
Gale Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southerly 25 to 30 knots, reaching up to 35 knots early in the morning. Winds decreasing to 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon then tending southeasterly in the late evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning, then decreasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 2 to 4 metres during the morning, then decreasing to 3 metres around midday.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Sunday 22 January
Winds
South to southeasterly about 10 knots becoming easterly during the morning then tending northeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


TG’s Surf Forecast

Posted on January 19th, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 19 January 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

A dull day today (just in the sky, not in the News) after the Southerly ripped through yesterday.  The Southerly brought rapid and welcome relief from the hot weather and some waves as well, which have started to go down already as the wind has turned East North East/North East.

For the week ahead … lots of wind changes and lots of wave changes ~~ and a State Premier and a US President change or two.

Friday: down at first from today, say around the low end of the 1-2 metre range at places that get dead South swell… coming up later

Saturday: coming up more to around say 2-2+ metres at places that are open to dead South swell – with southerly wind… maybe just a little might get into protected corners

Sunday: down a little, but sets still around 2 metres or so at dead South places

Monday: in the 1-2 metre range East South East (with a light Noreaster forecast)

Tuesday: down in the low end of the 1-2 metre range East North East

Wednesday: up again.. 2 or so metres at dead South spots only

Thursday: down in the 1-2 metre range dead South

Up in the Sky

MSLP Analysis for Thu Jan 19 00:00:00 2017 AUTC

Wind

https://www.windytv.com/?-33.859,151.200,5

Down in the Sea

Water temp offshore is around 22…onshore it’s been a little cooler at times but should be around that for the week ahead.

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2016-2017.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Max 25
Cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20%

Sydney area

Cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower, becoming less likely in the early afternoon. Winds easterly 15 to 25 km/h turning northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the evening.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 5:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 15 [Extreme]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis IconLocationMinMax
Cloudy.Sydney25
Cloudy.Penrith26
Cloudy.Liverpool25
Cloudy.Terrey Hills23
Cloudy.Richmond27
Cloudy.Parramatta25
Cloudy.Campbelltown25
Cloudy.Bondi24

 

Friday 20 January

Summary
Min 22
Max 28
Showers. Possible storm.
Possible rainfall: 6 to 15 mm
Chance of any rain: 95%

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds north to northeasterly 25 to 35 km/h shifting southerly 20 to 30 km/h in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 5:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 15 [Extreme]

Saturday 21 January

Summary
Min 22
Max 26
Windy. Cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10%

Sydney area

Cloudy. Winds southeast to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h tending southerly 30 to 45 km/h during the morning then becoming south to southeasterly and light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 5:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 14 [Extreme]

Sunday 22 January

Summary
Min 21
Max 27
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 5%

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Light winds.

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 5:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 15 [Extreme]

Monday 23 January

Summary
Min 20
Max 30
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10%

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Tuesday 24 January

Summary
Min 24
Max 36
Hot. Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 6 mm
Chance of any rain: 70%

Sydney area

Hot. Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h shifting southerly 25 to 35 km/h later.

Wednesday 25 January

Summary
Min 22
Max 25
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 3 to 15 mm
Chance of any rain: 80%

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. Winds southerly 25 to 35 km/h turning southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning.

 


Not redhot in Sydney this morning

Posted on January 19th, 2017 in At large.

WRL south Narra 0630, not looking too tasty…

Hello Friends,
Still shaking off the jetlag. Weather in Sydney looks about the same as in southern California, ie, grey skies, threatening to at least sprinkle, steady light SE onshores (SW here), and a SSE swell that’s 2.4 metres offshore but only 8 seconds, so not really getting around into the protected corners for you. From the look of the cams, it’s in the knee to waist range for the most part at magnets. Tide’s low just as I write this at 0810.
Wind’s supposed to come around to the NE this afternoon, so if that happens, I’d expect your surf prospects to improve a little.
The Goat’ll be along with his usual weekend outlook thoughts later. From what I’m seeing on the models, tomorrow morning might possibly be a prospect, but the swell’s dipping too so, maybe… or not. Beyond that it seems like onshores for the weekend but some sort of swell and then more onshores (from both south and north onshore quarters) and more variable, small short period wind swell for the rest of the week.

California Street, Ventura CA, early afternoon


As you can see from the shot above, there is still some swell activity, but the cross shore is into it, and despite the long lines, it’s kinda crumbily and slow. And soon it should start raining (desperately needed here), so I’m not gonna drive for an hour to get to it. We should be in for a stormy few days we hope, so not sure if I’ll have any postcards to share… we shall see…
Have a great day everyone!

Weather Situation
A low pressure trough has brought a south to southeasterly change to the New South Wales coast. Winds will tend north to northeasterly during Thursday as a high pressure system moves over the southern Tasman Sea extending a ridge to the north coast. The next southerly change is expected to develop along the south and central coasts later on Friday, before another high pressure system moves over the Tasman Sea during the weekend.
Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending east to northeasterly in the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 30% chance of a shower this morning.
Friday 20 January
Strong Wind Warning for Friday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 25 knots turning northwesterly 20 to 30 knots in the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy. 95% chance of showers. A thunderstorm likely in the afternoon and evening.
Saturday 21 January
Winds
Southerly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy.


Postcards from Cali: late afternoon at Deveraux point

Posted on January 18th, 2017 in Postcard.

Hello Friends,
Your jetlagged correspondent checked the conditions just on dusk at a spot near the University of California at Santa Barbara. It’s a point called Deveraux and it will pick up most winter swell action and hold it across all tides. Quality is in the fun not scary category and I was stoked to see that tomorrow after the travel fog’s worn off, I should be able to get a little something.
As the pics showed, it was a busy waist to chest plus with glassy late afternoon conditions.
Have a great day and catch you tomorrow!

Late afternoon light

Long lines from far away, SUP rider hunts fun with Santa Cruz island in the background

Distinct sets coming into Deveraux late afternoon, Tuesday

Busy but if you’re in the spot

Heading out to catch some waves on a late winter afternoon in Isla Vista, Calfifornia


Surf report

Posted on January 16th, 2017 in Surf Reports.

Nth Narra arvo update… howling Noreaster. ..looks like a lot of hard work
padding against the wind and current but if you’re young and fit you
probably don’t care…

And of course Wariewood is blownout and empty

Time for a coffee in the breeze after a dip to cool down.


Full and tiny at Dee Why this morning

Posted on January 16th, 2017 in Dee Why.

0630 tiny lines showing at Dee Why

Hello Friends,

A light north breeze, clear skies and some knee and a bit high bumps coming into the south end of Dee Why at 0630. According to the latest data from the MHL buoy, there’s about a metre of 7-sec SE wind bump out at sea. Tide’s coming into the 1.7m high at noon, but even at 0630 it looked pretty fat and full for the small number of folks bobbing hopefully about at Kiddies. I reckon they’re looking at knee to maybe waist on the biggest ones.
From the shape of this morning’s modelling, surf conditions don’t look like changing too dramatically across the coming week. The more optimistic predictions have the short period wind bump building a little by Friday ahead of a change to southerlies. Saturday and Sunday could see head plus with sideshores at optimal locations. But right now it doesn’t look like the wind’ll back off enough for anything like clean conditions.
If those same models are right about your correspondent’s prospects, there should be clean, long period waist to chest plus lines winding along the points of southern California next weekend. Expect postcards!
Have a great Monday one and all.

Weather Situation
Southeast to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast will turn north to northeasterly during Monday as a high pressure system over the Tasman Sea strengthens a ridge along the coast. The next south to southeasterly change is expected to develop on Wednesday.
Forecast for Monday until midnight
Winds
Northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the morning.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Caution
Deceptively powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Tuesday 17 January
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre around midday.
Weather
Mostly sunny. 20% chance of a shower offshore in the early morning. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere.
Wednesday 18 January
Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots tending northwesterly 10 to 15 knots during the morning then shifting south to southeasterly 20 to 30 knots during the day.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon or evening.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


 

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