Archive for February 2017

Extreme enthusiasm required

Posted on February 22nd, 2017 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Although the NNE’r was still 10-15 kts at 0200 this morning, it hasn’t pushed up anything of interest for early risers. The latest MHL data shows only a metre of 7-sec SE wind chop as the 1.67 m high tide tops out and begins dropping back to the low at 1250. I reckon even the biggest spots will be struggling to top the knee high mark for this morning’s early. And, although the NE’r will kick in pretty hard from about low tide onward, there’s nothing on the models to suggest it’ll do much to improve the conditions. Maybe possibly you could get a beat up waist plus onshore lump of chop toward dusk…
Outlook is for maybe a bit more of a wave tomorrow and then possibly something worthy of the name around Saturday.
On the plus side, water’s a balmy 25 and clean according to Beachwatch. So there is that…

North Bondi RSL view at daybreak Wed


Over on the other side of the ocean, the cold and rainy weather continues along with some small west bump at magnet spots. Your correspondent is hoping for a few sunny breaks tomorrow and maybe an opportunity to get wet…

California Street waist to chest, glassy, misty west lines

Weather Situation
A high pressure system moving over the southwestern Tasman Sea extends a ridge along the New South Wales coast, directing northeast to southeasterly winds across coastal waters. A trough is forecast to move into New South Wales late on Wednesday as a cold front moves to the south. This will bring a southerly change to the southern coast during Thursday, reaching the central coast during Friday.
Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Wednesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Winds reaching up to 30 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Thursday 23 February
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
2 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.
Friday 24 February
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots becoming variable about 10 knots during the morning.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 40% chance of showers.


Knee to waist at SE magnets

Posted on February 21st, 2017 in At large.

Hello Friends,
High tide was 0510 and low’s at noon. Wind was light offshore at 0630 and the latest MHL report was showing 1.3 metres of 7-sec SE wind bump. From a scan of the cams it looks to be in the ankle to knee range most places but knee to maybe even occasionally waist at SE magnets. The Bureau and the modellers are not too hopeful about the rest of the day or indeed of the week. With luck it’ll continue to bump along just a notch or two above unsurfable flatness in the mornings. There doesn’t seem to be much in the long range forecasts either…

Pretty morning over at North Bondi. You might even get a wave of sorts too.

Meanwhile in SoCal we’ve had more rain on top of the record breaking falls of a few days ago and this morning saw a junkifying SE wind knocking about a shortish period waist to chest plus west swell. I went west of town for a look at the indications and picked up a few postcards for you…

Empty but bumped waves at Naples near Goleta, CA

Deadmans trying to spark up, but getting bumped by the onshore and a little cross swell

Up and riding – sort of – inside at El Cap this morning in California

One person in the water on a holiday Monday at stormy El Cap

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the Bight extends a ridge across New South Wales. Winds will turn southeast to northeasterly during Tuesday as the high moves over the southwestern Tasman Sea and extends a ridge along the coast. A trough is forecast to move over the state during Wednesday as a cold front moves to the south. This will bring a southerly change to the southern and central coast during Thursday and Friday.
Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 20% chance of a shower inshore in the evening.
Wednesday 22 February
Strong Wind Warning for Wednesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 25 knots increasing to 25 to 30 knots in the evening then decreasing to 20 to 25 knots in the late evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1 to 2 metres around midday.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 20% chance of a shower.
Thursday 23 February
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny


Surf report

Posted on February 20th, 2017 in Surf Reports.

Arvo update

Superb day..for a clean up after Friday’s storm ..
Still looks to be waves breaking and the wind is light..even offshore NW at
some places and onshore at others.


Postcards: waves where there usually aren’t any

Posted on February 20th, 2017 in At large.

Huge rains in southern California mean there are some ephemeral river mouth banks in places that never otherwise see a surfable peak. One such has formed just east of the harbor in Santa Barbara on a stretch of beach that almost never sees a wave above a foot. It’s very likely that these conditions will only last a day or two and then it could be another decade or two before it happens again. Water was brown with run-off and who knows what sort of micro-organisms…

East Beach, Santa Barbara

East Beach, Santa Barbara

East Beach, Santa Barbara

East Beach, Santa Barbara

East Beach, Santa Barbara

Wave on the east side of Stearn’s Wharf – once in a lifetime East Beach, Santa Barbara

East Beach, Santa Barbara

East Beach, Santa Barbara


Postcards from Rincon

Posted on February 19th, 2017 in At large.

The day before the big storm, I headed down to Rincon and grabbed a few shoulder to head and a bit waves with a biggish crowd competing for every one of ’em. By the time I got out the sets were starting to push into the 1.5x overhead range. Water was a chilly 13-14 but there wasn’t any wind and swell was comparatively clean.

On a wave at Rincon

Dude gets a nice set wave at rivermouth, Rincon, California

Setting up for the next section

Banking off the top


No need to rush

Posted on February 19th, 2017 in At large.

Hello Friends,

At 0540 wind was WSW 15-20 kts at North Head and the MHL buoy’s latest update was showing 1.6 metres of 6-sec SE wind bump. Put those together and you have… a good reason to sleep in.

The Bureau’s forecast is calling for the wind to swing south and for wave heights to improve as a combo SE and NE wind swell fills in. But looking at the various models, I’m not overly hopeful on your behalf. I reckon it’ll be south-torn mostly micro wind dribble myself.

The way I read it, the prospects are for really tiny to flat conditions until Wednesday late when there seems to be a prospect for slightly longer period stuff filling in from the east. Thursday-Friday have some potential for east magnets – at least at this stage.

I was off the air yesterday because normally dry Santa Barbara copped an absolute bucketing (numerous single day rainfall records broken) and there was no power for us until late in the evening.

This morning the cams are showing messy conditions with an ocean that looks like chocolate milk from the tremendous amount of run-off.

Chocolate milk with waves of a sort at California Street, Ventura CA

Weather Situation
A high pressure system near New Zealand extends a ridge to the northwest directing north to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales north coast while a slow moving low pressure trough is bringing southerly change along the south and central coasts. On Sunday a low will form within the trough off the central coast before moving rapidly to the south during Monday. Winds are expected to turn southeast to northeasterly during Tuesday as another high pressure system moves over the southern Tasman Sea behind the low extending a ridge to the north coast.
Forecast for Sunday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots early in the morning. Winds becoming variable about 10 knots in the evening.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the morning.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Cloudy. 80% chance of showers offshore, 60% chance elsewhere.
Monday 20 February
Winds
West to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots offshore early in the morning. Winds becoming variable about 10 knots in the early afternoon then becoming easterly 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the afternoon.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.
Tuesday 21 February
Winds
East to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending north to northeasterly during the morning then tending east to northeasterly during the day.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Mostly sunny. 30% chance of a shower.


Surf report

Posted on February 17th, 2017 in Surf Reports.

Arvo update

Got a few waves an hour ir so back but wouldn’t recommend it with a
thunderstorm rolling in now

www.bom.gov.au/products/IDN65156.shtml


Surf report

Posted on February 17th, 2017 in Surf Reports.

Small NE windwaves after last night’s howling NEr…choppy on open
beaches..Tide’s a little liw at protected spots..should be ok as ther tide
comes in..mostly for longboards and SUPs


Waist plusses at east magnets early

Posted on February 17th, 2017 in At large.

North Bondi view at 0630. Small east bumps, better elsewhere.

Hello Friends,

Definitely some activity this morning in Sydney thanks to close to 2 metres of 10 sec mainly east wind swell. The North Bondi pic hints at the potential elsewhere. From what I saw on the cams, it’s looking to be waist to chest and maybe a bit at magnets as of 0630.
Wind’s out of the NNE 10-15 kts at North Head as I write this, but as the forecast below shows, it’s gonna ramp up later and that will obviously reduce the surf options to the usual corners.
Tide’s low at 0730 and will be high at 1330.
For the longer range outlook, check out the Goat’s 20th anniversary forecast (official legend status!!!).

Here in SoCal a major rain event is moving in on us and the swell’s starting to push up. Your correspondent is tossing the board in the car and going looking soon.
Swell is hitting up north more than here right now, but there were a few hopeful bods waiting for it to come up at Sandspit late this morning…

Weather Situation
A high near New Zealand extends a ridge along the Queensland coast. A series of cold fronts are crossing the Southern Ocean with a trough and southerly change likely to affect the south coast later today. The trough is expected to move into the northeast on Saturday then a low should form in the trough off the north coast on Sunday.
Forecast for Friday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Friday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Northerly 20 to 30 knots tending northeasterly 20 to 25 knots in the middle of the day then increasing to 25 to 30 knots in the evening.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm during this afternoon and evening.
Saturday 18 February
Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Northeasterly 20 to 30 knots tending northwest to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots in the morning then tending south to southeasterly in the middle of the day.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres around midday.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 95% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Sunday 19 February
Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots becoming variable about 10 knots during the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the afternoon or evening.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the morning.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy. 90% chance of showers.
Please be aware
Wind gusts can be 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
Nearby Coastal Waters


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on February 16th, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

20 Years of TG’s Surf Forecasts !!

Surf forecast issued Thursday 16 February 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Yep, TG has officially done 20 years of surf forecasts, and is now into his 21st year (I wonder if he’ll ever grow up??)…

The first forecast went up on 30 January 1997 and there has been a forecast on realsurf.com for the week ahead almost every week since then 🙂

TG’s Surf Forecasts were the first publicly available surf forecasts on the internet in Australia!  We know that was the case – because there wasn’t anyone else!

And they are still provided free, and gratis, and without charge to the viewing public. Talk about value for money.

To all those who’ve said nice things about them and how helpful they’ve been over the years (amazingly a lot of people) Thank you…It’s appreciated and a pleasure.  But don’t let that stop you… Keep on sending ’em :)… TG thrives on praise.

To those (remarkably few) others who’ve felt inclined to nitpick when the forecast for a particular day was out by say a metre.. or three (quite rare, amazingly)… You can go umm… make your own arrangements 🙂  The forecasts come to you with the proviso:  You can’t tell Mother Nature what to do.

http://www.realsurf.com/the-goat-faq/

Now for the week ahead…

Not much in store, unless you ride a longboard or SUP… and at the right tides, you might get a fun little wave.  If you don’t, and you don’t like onshores when the surf is slightly bigger, then Suck it up! (that’s harsh love I know) and Relax.

Friday: around 1 metre or so North East, maybe a little more

Saturday: about 1 metre North East

Sunday: coming up in the 1-2 metre range from South South East, and windy.  Not much is likely to get into protected corners

Monday: going down already to about 1 metre at dead South places, and windy

Tuesday: hmm, ditto

Wednesday: 1 metre or less East South East

Thursday: about 1 metre East South East

Have fun! Keep smiling!

In the Air

MSLP Analysis for Thu Feb 16 00:00:00 2017 AUTC

Winds

https://www.windytv.com/?-33.879,151.219,5

In the Sea

image

Water temp is around 23.

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2016-2017.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Max 31
Possible afternoon shower.
Chance of any rain: 30%

Sydney area

Sunny morning. Slight (30%) chance of a shower in the afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm in the west in the afternoon. Light winds becoming northerly 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day then tending northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h in the late afternoon.

Fire Danger – High

Sun protection recommended from 9:20 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis IconLocationMinMax
Possible afternoon shower.Sydney31
Possible shower.Penrith37
Possible shower.Liverpool35
Possible afternoon shower.Terrey Hills30
Possible shower.Richmond37
Possible afternoon shower.Parramatta34
Possible shower.Campbelltown36
Possible afternoon shower.Bondi29

 

Friday 17 February

Summary
Min 23
Max 33
Afternoon shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 50%

Sydney area

Hot. Sunny morning. Medium (60%) chance of showers in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Winds north to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the morning then becoming north to northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h in the middle of the day.

Sun protection recommended from 9:20 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Saturday 18 February

Summary
Min 24
Max 27
Showers. Possible storm.
Possible rainfall: 15 to 35 mm
Chance of any rain: 95%

Sydney area

Becoming cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds northwest to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h tending south to southeasterly 25 to 35 km/h during the morning.

Sun protection recommended from 9:30 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Sunday 19 February

Summary
Min 19
Max 23
Showers. Becoming windy.
Possible rainfall: 10 to 25 mm
Chance of any rain: 90%

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers. Winds southerly 25 to 40 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 9:30 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Monday 20 February

Summary
Min 18
Max 24
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 6 mm
Chance of any rain: 70%

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers, most likely during the morning. Winds south to southwesterly 25 to 35 km/h.

Tuesday 21 February

Summary
Min 17
Max 25
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40%

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Winds south to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning southeasterly during the day.

Wednesday 22 February

Summary
Min 19
Max 28
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 30%

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming north to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.


 

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