The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted by: on June 29th, 2017

Surf forecast issued Thursday 29 June 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

An interesting, “vigorous” outlook.  Background from the BoM: “Weather Situation
A cold front will bring vigorous southerly change along the New South Wales south coast tonight extending to Sydney Waters Friday morning and to the far north coast in the afternoon. A low will develop within the front as it moves over the Tasman Sea.”

Some people are saying 10 foot swell on Sunday, some models have similar indications, while some others are not so sure.

As Nick Carroll and I were discussing  (Hey I don’t mind when Nick name drops TG) just last week at the Surf Life Saving Sydney Northern Beaches Awards of Excellence dinner (Oh, is that another name drop..more later*:)), the models have been a bit off at times lately and they don’t always get it right anyway.  But ain’t it grand that there are still some things in nature that just can’t be predicted.

The BoM’s supercomputer currently has the Low being shoved off pretty fast by the cold front moving from the west in the southern ocean at 40 knots = about 75ks an hour, just slowed to 35=65ks, so the Low/s should be mostly off NZ by late Saturday. Before it goes away, while it’s off the NSW south coast most of the swell that looks like being generated will have a very SW bent to it…. meaning it’ll be Nasty Big out in the Tasman, but closer to the coast, see below.. It all depends on whether the Low tracks as expected.  As I said tto Nick it always amazes me that the BoM can predict their movements at all. The way I see it, it’s like trying to predict what tangent a spinning top on a table might head off on. No change yet in the MHL Eden buoy 1.4-2.1 metres South South East, similar to the last few days.

TG’s best estimates right now for Surf, from examining the entrails, taking all things into consideration, and mixing in a good dose of judgement:

Friday: starting to show something at places that get dead South swell, say in the 1-2 metre range, increasing through the day

Saturday: about 2, maybe 3 metres at dead South spots with a reasonable period, so some might get into protected corners.  Bigger up the coast; big outside at South West Rocks and the State IRB Championships on the main beach might even see a ripple or two, but nothing the Av boys and girls couldn’t handle. Go Av!

Sunday: easing back a bit, say about 2 metres South East, still with a reasonable, eased back period

Monday: back more in the 1-2 metre range South East

Tuesday: 1 metre or less

Wednesday: a slight uptick at places open to dead South swell, somewhere into the 1-2 metre range

Thursday: in the 1-2 metre range at dead South places.

The Bureau is forecasting some more cool days ahead to sap your energy levels if you go out.  Water temp has cooled quite a bit since I went in earlier in the week, from 20 to less than 18 according to the MHL buoy.  Surf within your own limitations and Stay Safe.

* Nick and I were nominated by our respective surf clubs for different awards (Nick for Masters Athlete of the Year; me for Community Surf Safety Education in TG’s Surf Forecast!).  An honour just to be nominated. We weren’t successful as there were some pretty tough and worthy other club nominees. Well done to those who won the prestigious awards. Everyone had a good time, at least I did. 🙂

In the Sea

Colder water is creeping up the coast, with lots of whales hightailing it north for their annual hols.  So far today I’ve seen 16 just by having a glance every now and again, and just saw 4 more. They’ve happily cruising along, between 5 and 15 ks out.

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2016-2017.pdf

In the Sky

Latest chart

MSLP Analysis for Thu Jun 29 00:00:00 2017 AUTC

Winds

https://www.windy.com/?-33.902,151.200,5

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Max 17
Morning shower or two.
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. The chance of morning fog in the west. High (70%) chance of showers during the morning, clearing. Light winds becoming west to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h in the evening.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis IconLocationMinMax
Morning shower or two.Sydney17
Morning shower or two.Penrith18
Morning shower or two.Liverpool17
Morning shower or two.Terrey Hills15
Morning shower or two.Richmond18
Morning shower or two.Parramatta17
Partly cloudy.Campbelltown18
Morning shower or two.Bondi17

 

Friday 30 June

Summary
Min 9
Max 16
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h becoming light in the late afternoon then becoming southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h in the evening.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Saturday 1 July

Summary
Min 7
Max 16
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h tending southerly during the day then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Sunday 2 July

Summary
Min 7
Max 18
Sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Monday 3 July

Summary
Min 8
Max 19
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. Light winds becoming northerly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Tuesday 4 July

Summary
Min 11
Max 18
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.2 mm
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds northerly 15 to 25 km/h turning northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning.

Wednesday 5 July

Summary
Min 9
Max 16
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.2 mm
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds west to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h turning south

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