Archive for October 2017

Windy, grey and tiny Saturday morning

Posted on October 14th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Looks like surfing is off the agenda this morning – unless you’ve got a kite rig or a sailboard. Not only was there a blustery 15-25 kts of SE wind ripping it to bits, but the south corners weren’t a prospect either thanks to only 1.5 m of 5-6 sec south wind bump. And there’s no serious hope for an improvement today according to the Bureau whose modelling shows a gradual decrease in wave heights over the day.
Surf options are not good for tomorrow either and, in fact, for most of the coming work week. If they’re right, we could be waiting until Thursday-Friday or so before we see anything interesting.
Here’s hoping the forecasts are unduly bleak, but then again, it is spring, so there is that…
Have a top old Saturday everyone!

Unappetizing Dee Why at 0645

Point unsurfable

Swimming if you were really keen I guess

Not happening on the Collaroy to Narrabeen stretch

Looks like the right gear for a windy morning

No dice at Northy


Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the Bight extends a ridge to the far south coast, while a trough lies over southern Queensland waters. These systems are generating south to southeasterly winds, which will shift east to northeasterly early next week as the high drifts eastwards and strengthens over the central Tasman Sea.
Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Winds
South to southeasterly 15 to 25 knots, tending southeasterly 10 to 15 knots knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 80% chance of showers.
Sunday 15 October
Winds
Southeasterly about 10 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 30% chance of a shower.
Monday 16 October
Winds
Easterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
1st Swell
Easterly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the morning.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 30% chance of a shower.


Not a lot of surfing going on at Dee Why

Posted on October 13th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Light WNW wind and tide dropping to the low at 0910 when I checked Dee Why for the first time today at just after 0700. Skies were hazy and partly cloudy. The MHL buoy was showing 1.3 metres of 8-sec SE wind bump and as the pictures show, it wasn’t producing anything of note on the surf front. I couldn’t see anybody in the water, nor any reason why there should be. I’d say the sets are at best in the knee high range – if that.
I’m with the Goat on today’s prospects and am liking his views on next week…
Best wishes for a cruisy, if surfless Friday!

The point on Friday at 0710

Faint line along the beach

Weather Situation
Winds will gradually tend southeast to northeasterly today and over the weekend as a low pressure trough develops offshore.
Forecast for Friday until midnight
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northeast to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the middle of the day then becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by early evening.
1st Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then decreasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 40% chance of showers.
Saturday 14 October
Winds
East to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning southeasterly 15 to 25 knots before dawn.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 90% chance of showers.
Sunday 15 October
Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers.


TG’s Surf Forecast

Posted on October 12th, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 12 October 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

While I was avoiding a seal in the surf here last week, Wazza was swimmng in Hawaii and there was a seal on the beach there…   What’s going on??? Huh???  The lifeguards marked out an area around it to avoid an unfortunate incident.

A welcome drop of overnight rain followed by a pleasantly warm, sunny day today.  Almost perfect except there was no surf.  Then this arvo a fresh SE change blew through… Will it blow up some surf?? I hear you ask through my speakers… The answer is:

Not really… well maybe a little something, and there could be more of a little something later

Friday: about 1 metre South East

Saturday: about 1 metre or so East South East, with maybe a little pulse from due South from time to time

Sunday: about 1 metre at places that like dead South swell, with sets that are a little bigger

Monday: coming up in the 1-2 metre range East/ South East

Tuesday: upper end of the 1-2 metre range East South East

Wednesday: ditto and more East

Thursday: in the 1-2 metre range North East.

Have a good one

TG

Up in the Air

MSLP Analysis for Thu Oct 12 06:00:00 2017 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Oct 12 05:30:00 2017

Winds

https://www.windy.com/?-33.888,151.123,5

Down in the Water

Water temp is around 19 mostly, trying hard to get to 20. As far as I’m concerned it’s not trying hard enough.  Maybe this weekend…

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Mostly clear.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly clear. Winds southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:20 am to 3:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 7 [High]

Friday 13 October

Summary
Min 15
Max 24
Late shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Patchy fog in the west in the early morning. Mostly sunny day. Medium (40%) chance of showers in the evening. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the early afternoon then turning south to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the evening.

Fire Danger – High

Sun protection recommended from 9:20 am to 3:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 7 [High]

 

Saturday 14 October

Summary
Min 16
Max 20
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 3 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 90% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers. Winds south to southeasterly 20 to 30 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 9:20 am to 3:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 7 [High]

Sunday 15 October

Summary
Min 16
Max 21
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 2 to 3 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds southeast to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h tending southeasterly during the morning then becoming light during the afternoon.

Sun protection recommended from 9:20 am to 3:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 8 [Very High]

Monday 16 October

Summary
Min 16
Max 23
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming east to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day then becoming light during the afternoon.

Tuesday 17 October

Summary
Min 17
Max 23
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 18 October

Summary
Min 16
Max 25
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds northwest to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h during the day.

Thursday 19 October

Summary
Min 17
Max 28
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.2 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Winds north to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h.


Tiny bumps at Dee Why

Posted on October 12th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Mostly overcast skies this morning and only the barest hint of a wave at Dee Why beach (it was too small for the point). The MHL buoy was showing about a metre of 7 sec NE wind bump as of 0500. Tide was low at 0755 and will be coming into a high of 1.6 m at 1425. Wind was light before 0800 but the Bureau tells us to expect a shift to the S-SE around lunchtime. Outlook is for the swell energy to bumble along through the day at approximately the current levels and looking at the week ahead on the various models, it would seem we’re in for very small and weak conditions into early next week. I wonder what the Goat’ll think…
Have yourself a great Thursday everybody!

Rider picks up a bump at Kiddies around 0720

Stay away from this one aeroplanes: classic rotor cloud rolls across the sky off Sydney around 0720

Nothing showing at No Mans

Point not an option


Weather Situation
A cold front will extend a southwest to southeasterly change along the south coast this morning extending on the north coast overnight. Winds are expected to tend southeast to northeasterly during Friday as a low pressure trough develops offshore.
Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Thursday for Sydney Coast
Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots, shifting south to southeasterly 15 to 25 knots in the middle of the day and reaching 30 knots offshore until evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the morning.
Weather
60% chance of rain this morning. Mostly sunny afternoon.
Friday 13 October
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 2 metres.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 30% chance of a shower at night.
Saturday 14 October
Winds
East to northeasterly 20 to 30 knots tending south to southeasterly 15 to 25 knots during the day then tending easterly 15 to 20 knots during the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 90% chance of showers.


Extreme dedication required

Posted on October 11th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Stopped by Long Reef this morning and as the pictures show, it’s not really a surf day out there. Along with the drizzly heavy overcast, the surf situation is dire. And, from the look of the forecast (see below) we’re not likely to see any improvement today. There’s just no energy in the system right now.
Tomorrow promises to be showery in the morning and then windy from the NE. Unfortunately the models are showing only tiny, short period wind bump for the next week. The doldrums of spring are upon us my friends.
Have yourself a great Wednesday everyone!

Dee Why from Long Reef – looking sad

A morning for beginners to work on the basics

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea is directing northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast, with an increasing trend expected today as a cold front approaches from the west. This front is forecast to bring a southerly change to southern and central parts of the coast on Thursday, before weakening on the northern coast during Friday. Another high looks set to move across southeast Australia behind the front, and should remain the dominant feature in the region through the weekend.
Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Wednesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 25 knots increasing to 20 to 30 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 50% chance of showers in the morning and afternoon.
Thursday 12 October
Strong Wind Warning for Thursday for Sydney Coast
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching 30 knots offshore at first, south to southwesterly early in the morning then southeasterly in the afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
70% chance of rain in the morning. Mostly sunny afternoon.
Friday 13 October
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the day.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon or evening.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon or evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 30% chance of a shower.


How keen are you?

Posted on October 10th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Solid overcast, drizzle and light SSE wind combined with a much faded SE swell to paint a less than appetizing picture at Dee Why. There were a few hardy types in the water at the point when I grabbed the pictures, but it looked pretty sad. I waited for a set to show up, but nothing appeared and it started drizzling again. From where people were sitting, I’d say they were chasing knee to maybe waist high bumps. There didn’t seem to be anyone in the water up toward No Mans which, given the conditions, wasn’t all that surprising. Again, I’d say you could probably find something in the knee to maybe knee plus range on the bomb sets.
Tide was low at 0600 and is headed to a highish 1.74 m peak at 1225.
The models show another 4-5 days (at least) of conditions bumping along just above absolute flatness. On your behalf, I hope they’re unduly pessimistic.
However it plays out, may your day go well!

Barely there at 0720

Up the beach looking blah

Weather Situation
A cold front is bringing a southerly change to northern parts of the New South Wales coast this morning, and will reach the Queensland border by midday. Behind the front, a high pressure system is drifting over southeast Australia, and should reach the Tasman Sea by evening, accompanied by a gradual shift to northeasterly winds in most coastal areas. Winds will increase on Wednesday ahead of the next cold front, which looks set to bring another southerly change on Thursday.
Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Winds
South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots becoming east to southeasterly below 10 knots in the middle of the day then tending east to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 20% chance of a shower.
Wednesday 11 October
Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots, tending north to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots during the day.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 30% chance of a shower at night.
Thursday 12 October
Winds
Northerly 15 to 25 knots shifting south to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots during the day then becoming southerly 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 20% chance of a shower.


Waves for Monday morning

Posted on October 9th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Chest plus sets for the early session at Dee Why point this morning. Tide’s coming into the 1.8 m high at 1135 but wind was light for the first shift. At 0500 the swell was 1.8 m coming from the SE at 11 seconds apart. From the Bureau’s modelling, it looks as though the wave energy will fade gradually into the waist high range as the day goes along. And the wind’s going to come up from the N to NW (which won’t be good for the point) before going southerly this evening.
The Bureau and the other modellers are projecting a week of marginal but not flat swell conditions.
So get in asap!

Murky sky with plane

Waves at the point

Lines up the beach

Small crew on it at 0710

Weather Situation
North to northwesterly winds ahead of a southerly change associated with a cold front developing on the south coast Monday morning and extending to the far north coast on Tuesday morning. Winds are expected to turn southeast to northeasterly on Tuesday as a high pressure system moves over the Tasman Sea extending a ridge along the coast.
Forecast for Monday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast
Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots, shifting southerly 20 to 30 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
1st Swell
Southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
2nd Swell
Southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm during this afternoon and early evening.
Tuesday 10 October
Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots turning east to southeasterly below 10 knots in the morning then tending east to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the late evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
2nd Swell
Southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy. 20% chance of a shower.
Wednesday 11 October
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 30 knots during the afternoon then turning northerly 25 to 30 knots during the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy. 30% chance of a shower.


PICS: Sunday 08/10/17 Curl Curl

Posted on October 8th, 2017 in Top stories.

Stopped by Curl Curl Sunday around 0830 and stayed for an hour to shoot people catching some fun looking waves along the middle part of the beach. You can see the whole 246-picture gallery here.

Curly Sunday morning – from the gallery

Lotsa waves at Curly Sunday morning

Floating off the top

Curly Sunday

Curl Curl Sunday am

Fun section

Curly cutty


Curly around 0900

Posted on October 8th, 2017 in Curl Curl, Surf Reports.

Roughly 130 people in the water from one end to the other at Curl Curl this morning. Quite consistent too. Waves often getting out but heaps of shoulder high sets in the mix. Surface a little ruffled out to sea but inshore was smooth in a light offshore under broken high overcast skies.


Cool start but waves at SE spots

Posted on October 7th, 2017 in At large.

Hello Friends,

A chill in the air as Saturday kicked off. The skies were mostly cloudy but the wind was light and the ocean surface smooth. Swell perked overnight as expected and while you probably couldn’t surf anywhere from Collaroy to Narrabeen (too small and tide too high) there were waist to shoulder high sets from about the lagoon to kiddies at Dee Why. There were occasional waves for the keen crew at the point, but they looked to be mostly in the waist high range.
By around 0700 the wind was still light WSW, but the forecast tells us it’ll go southerly 15-20 kts later. Tide was coming into the 1.7m high at 1000. The Bureau has a large and powerful surf warning up, but from the look of the MHL buoy data, the pulse peaked last night. At 0400 it was 3 metres at the Sydney buoy and coming from the dead south at about 9 seconds apart.
Outlook is for the swell to fade across the day and by dusk it looks like it’ll be pretty marginal. Some models show the conditions staying marginal to near flat for the next week or so, but there might be a small uptick for Monday thanks to an increase in average period (according to some models). From around Tuesday onward, the prospects are not exciting. Right now it looks like a run of shorth period east to SE wind bump.
So, get in now if you can!

Mals looked to be the optimal choice as of 0640 at the point

Bomb set at the Pole 0640

Cute peak at Narrabeen

No Mans set at 0635

Not happening at Northy

Weather Situation
Southerly winds are prevailing over the New South Wales coast behind a trough moving away to the east, while an associated low pressure circulation deepens over the Tasman Sea. A high pressure system, currently south of the Bight, will drift across southeast Australia in the trough’s wake, reaching the southern Tasman Sea by late Saturday. Winds are expected to gradually shift northerly later on the weekend as the next trough approaches from the west.
Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots becoming southeasterly below 10 knots in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre around midday.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 30% chance of a shower in the morning and early afternoon.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Sunday 8 October
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northerly 15 to 20 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 metres during the morning, then tending south to southeasterly 2 metres by early evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.
Monday 9 October
Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots tending northwesterly 10 to 15 knots during the morning then shifting southerly 15 to 25 knots during the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Southeasterly 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
Weather
Mostly sunny. 40% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.


 

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