The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted by: on December 14th, 2017

Surf forecast issued Thursday 14 December 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

School hols have started for some, and start for the rest from tomorrow.

So mums and dads want to know for the week ahead…

Can I say: Go surfing! to get the kids out of the house!?… Or even: Can I go surfing myself!!??

Well, make of this what you will… But make sure the kids…and you… stay safe in the surf.

Friday: despite a southerly change expected by the Bureau overnight, there should still be waves in the 1-2 metre range East North East , which of course will be poor quality at places open to the south but kids never notice that

Saturday: dittoish re wave size and direction

Sunday: down a little in the 1-2 metre range East North East, feeling the effects of more southerly wind

Monday: ditto re waves

Tuesday: dittoish, more Nor East

Wednesday: ditto East North East

Thursday: smaller East North East

Stay calm in the Lead up to Christmas Spirit.  No more carpark parking rage eh Col? Stay cool … Relaax …Everyone. Have fun! Or Else!!

TG.

Up up in the Sky

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Dec 14 03:30:00 2017

MSLP Analysis for Thu Dec 14 00:00:00 2017 AUTC

Winds

https://www.windyty.com/

Down down in the Sea

Water temp was beautiful today (Thursday) at around 22, despite the persistent Summer Noreasters we’ve had with the nice weather… it hasn’t been consistently NE though.  If the wind was going to continue strong from the NE for another day or so I’d say we could get some cold water.  But the Bureau is forecasting a southerly change, then a bit of chopping and changing wind directions, so the water should stay warm enough.

Some friends asked me the other day, what is the technical reason the water can get colder in Summer?

Technical reason!?  Why ask me??… 🙂

To help you all out, let’s see how the experts explain it:

http://media.bom.gov.au/social/blog/1244/the-ekman-transport-effectcold-water-upwelling-on-australian-coastlines/

My Simple Rule of Thumb for Sydney and most of the NSW coastline: After 3 days of Strong Nor Easters expect Cold, Green, Darker, Plankton laden, Uncomfortable/Hypothermia-inducing-if-immersed-in-it-for-too-long, Cold Water.

image

Tides

Watch out for those shallow low tides. We don’t want you to become a paraplegic or worse from misjudging a wave or from a dumping shorebreak for that matter.

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Max 32
Afternoon cloud developing.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Hot inland. Partly cloudy. The slight chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and early evening. Winds west to northwesterly 25 to 35 km/h, with northeasterly winds 20 to 30 km/h near the coast extending inland during the late afternoon and evening.

Fire Danger – Severe

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis IconLocationMinMax
Afternoon cloud developing.Sydney32
Hot. Afternoon cloud developing.Penrith42
Hot. Afternoon cloud developing.Liverpool41
Hot. Afternoon cloud developing.Terrey Hills36
Hot. Afternoon cloud developing.Richmond41
Hot. Afternoon cloud developing.Parramatta41
Hot. Afternoon cloud developing.Campbelltown41
Windy. Afternoon cloud developing.Bondi30

 

Friday 15 December

Summary
Min 21
Max 26
Cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. The chance of a thunderstorm in the outer west in the afternoon and early evening. Winds south to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming southerly 25 to 35 km/h before dawn then becoming light in the early afternoon.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Saturday 16 December

Summary
Min 21
Max 32
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Hot. Mostly sunny morning. Slight (30%) chance of a shower in the morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm in the west in the afternoon and evening. Winds northwest to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h tending northeast to southeasterly during the day then tending south to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Sunday 17 December

Summary
Min 21
Max 26
Cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Winds southerly 15 to 25 km/h turning southeasterly during the morning.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Monday 18 December

Summary
Min 21
Max 30
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 3 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers later in the day. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Tuesday 19 December

Summary
Min 22
Max 30
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower during the morning. Winds south to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light during the morning then becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 20 December

Summary
Min 24
Max 34
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 3 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Hot. Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers, most likely later in the day. Light winds.

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