Archive for December 2017

Very small on Monday morning

Posted on December 11th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Light NNW wind, sunny skies, but very tiny looking at Dee Why. Couldn’t see anyone in the water. A quick scan of the cams shows that you might get a knee high dribbler elsewhere thanks to the 1 metre 9-sec east wind bump. Take a very floaty object and an optimistic attitude if you’re going for a look. Tide hits the low at 0945 and will be back to the high at 1550. By then the NE’r should be up to full strength, so the plan is to hit it sooner rather than later.

Outlook for the next few days is not too interesting wave-wise. I hope the swell models are wrong because they’re all pretty dour about our prospects through to the end of the work week.

Have a great day and keep on smilin’!

Weather Situation

A weak high pressure system over the western Tasman Sea will be the dominant synoptic feature in the region during the next few days, although a trough will briefly affect the southern coast today. This pattern will see southeast to northeasterly winds directed over New South Wales waters, becoming increasingly northerly as the week progresses. The next significant change will arrive at the end of the week.

Forecast for Monday until midnight

Winds
Variable about 10 knots, becoming northeasterly 10 to 15 knots around midday, and reaching up to 20 knots inshore in the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Tuesday 12 December

Winds
Northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the early afternoon. Winds reaching up to 20 knots inshore in the late afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Wednesday 13 December

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny

Warm start on a day of tiny waves

Posted on December 10th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

A light easterly breeze was wafting across the beaches at 0730 this morning. There didn’t seem to be much energy down at Dee Why though. I couldn’t see anyone in the water at the point or up the beach. The MHL buoy was seeing 1.1 m of 11-sec SE swell. Tide is low at 0830 and will be back to high at 1445. Magnets may be picking up something in the knee high range on sets, but I’d be surprised if there was anything much above the waist high mark.

This morning’s run of the swell forecast models doesn’t look too exciting. Prospects seem to be for the current low-energy state to be maintained through the coming week, although at least one of the predictions is showing a prospect for some waist plus NE bump on Thursday-Friday. Hope they’re undercalling it…

Have a great Sunday and may the good ones come your way if you get in!

 

Weather Situation

Winds will generally tend southeast to northeasterly this weekend as a weak high pressure system becomes established over the Tasman Sea. This high is expected to be the dominant feature over the region for the following days, although a weak trough is forecast to bring a brief southerly change to southern waters on Monday.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight

Winds
East to southeasterly about 10 knots tending east to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the early afternoon. Winds reaching northeasterly 15 to 20 knots for a time during the afternoon and evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to around 1 metre by early evening.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Monday 11 December

Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas
Below 1 metre, decreasing below 0.5 metres during the morning, then increasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Tuesday 12 December

Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

So-so Saturday

Posted on December 9th, 2017 in At large.

Hello Friends,

The odd sunny break as Saturday got started. Wind kept going all night but as of 0630 it was 7-8 kts from the SE at North Head – it should pick up soon though. Tide was dropping to the 0.57 m low at 0730 (high is 1.7 m at 1345 and out at sea the 0400 report from the MHL buoy showed 2 metres of 9-sec SSE swell.

As you can see from the pics (click to see full size) the steady south breeze was chopping up the waist to chest high sets from 0630. Wave quality was not too spectacular but it did seem to be reasonably consistent for those keen types willing to put up with the junky conditions.

Outlook for tomorrow seems to be okay for the dawn patrol when wind should be light. But  as the morning goes along the east to SE breeze will pick up before going NE in the afternoon. The general energy trend is for the primary swell energy to be coming from the east – and fading across the day.

Right now Monday and Tuesday are not looking too hopeful for waves. The models tell us to expect short period junk and onshores peaking around the 20 kt mark in the afternoons. There does seem to be some hope of a slight improvement to wave heights at sea late in the week, but periods are forecast to be in the choppy 6-8 second range. So, very much a summery outlook.

Have yourself a great Saturday one and all!

Weather Situation

Southerly winds will gradually tend southeast to northeast this weekend as a weak high pressure system becomes established over the Tasman Sea. This high is expected to be the dominant feature in the region over the following days, although a weak trough is likely to briefly affect southern waters on Monday.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Winds
Southerly 10 to 15 knots, reaching up to 20 knots offshore early in the morning. Winds turning easterly 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloud clearing.

Sunday 10 December

Winds
East to southeasterly about 10 knots tending east to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Monday 11 December

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Surf picture gallery from North Steyne Weds 6 Dec 17

Posted on December 8th, 2017 in Don's surfin' pics.

Skies may have been cloudy, so the colour wasn’t too interesting, but the waves were pumping for the early session at Manly beach’s North Steyne on Wednesday morning. Here are a few samples…

To see all 300+ images from Wednesday morning click here.

 
See all 300+ pictures taken at North Steyne


Waves for the early session

Posted on December 8th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

The wind is set to swing around from the NW to the south soon and by lunch it could be 15-25 kts. That’ll radically reduce surf options. And then there’s the deep 1.84 m high tide that’ll peak at 1250. So get on it ASAP if you can. Swell was coming from the east at 2 metres at 9 seconds early this morning.

As of 0700 waves at the point were in the waist to shoulder range and up the beach it looked to be a bit bigger. Surface conditions were somewhat bumpy, but it looked like there were plenty of clean faces to play on.

Outlook you ask? Ah, well, may I refer you to the ever perspicacious Goat who has, as usual, rolled out his considered look at the surf prospects for the next week.

Have a great day and get in if you can!

Cruising one at the point 0700

Another set at 0700

Up the beach, fun to be had

Weather Situation

Winds will tend north to northeasterly along the northern New South Wales coast today ahead of a front that is approaching from the west. Winds will generally be west to southwest for the remainder of the coast ahead of the front. This front will bring a southerly change to southern waters this morning, central waters this afternoon and the north coast this evening or Saturday morning. Winds in the new week will tend southeast to northeasterly as a high pressure ridge extends from the Bight to the Tasman Sea in the wake of the front.

Forecast for Friday until midnight

Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots shifting southerly 15 to 25 knots during the morning.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 metres during the morning, then decreasing to around 1 metre by early evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers and the chance of a thunderstorm during this afternoon and evening.

Saturday 9 December

Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 20 knots turning east to northeasterly below 10 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloud clearing.

Sunday 10 December

Winds
East to southeasterly about 10 knots becoming east to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon and evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on December 7th, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 7 December 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

It’s a very busy time of the year… Yesterday I saw every break from the Bower to Pittwater as I drove past them… to do other stuff.  Pre-storm they were all the same… A Mess…. with individual variations from A Big Mess to a Small Mess. So when I saw all white water this morning I assumed it was same again, and I had other things to do anyway. Apparently some lucky people were able to get in the water and had some fun waves.

Not sure the waves and younger more energetic crowds would have suited me anyway.  It’s a very busy time of the year…in and out of the water.  All I can say to you is, that if you were or are able to get in the water at the right time, you either don’t have any responsibilities… Or you’re irresponsible!!!

I won’t comment further, as I still have other things to do.  Comforting me a little is that conditions will be quite changeable over coming days, so you’ll have to be on your toes.  I see lots of green cold water patches out to sea among the blue patches.

There should be wWaves of varying size, quality, and wave direction and wind direction all week, but at least there’ll be waves of some sort at the right time, right place…

Friday: still in the upper end of the 1-2 metre range, East, possibly with some bigger sets

Saturday: southerly type winds should know it down a bit but still in the 1-2 metre range and swinging more South East, with some sets at dead South places

Sunday: down to more manageable levels for the average punter, in the lower end of the 1-2 metre range East South East, with occasional slightly bigger sets from the East

Monday: about 1 metre or so SE with some mild sets from the East

Tuesday: about 1 metre or so, let’s say Eastish

Wednesday: 1-1+ etres North East

Thursday: ditto.

Do your best to have fun, and be responsible!  Stay safe.

And I’ve gotta go now!!!

In the Sky

MSLP Analysis for Thu Dec  7 00:00:00 2017 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Dec  7 04:30:00 2017

https://www.windyty.com/

In the Sea

Water temp is currently 20, but was only 16 a few days ago,  There might be more cold/warmer currents ahead for a bit.

 

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

 

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Clear.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Clear. Winds northwest to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h tending northwest to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:20 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Friday 8 December

Summary
Min 20
Max 25
Showers. Possible storm.
Possible rainfall: 4 to 6 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm, most likely in the afternoon. Winds northwest to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light in the morning then becoming south to southeasterly 25 to 35 km/h in the early afternoon and strengthening to 25 to 35 km/h near the coast from the late afternoon.

Fire Danger – High

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 4:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

 

Saturday 9 December

Summary
Min 18
Max 24
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds south to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming tending east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the afternoon.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Sunday 10 December

Summary
Min 17
Max 26
Sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Monday 11 December

Summary
Min 18
Max 27
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day then becoming light during the evening.

Tuesday 12 December

Summary
Min 19
Max 29
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 13 December

Summary
Min 21
Max 32
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Thursday 14 December

Summary
Min 21
Max 32
Possible afternoon shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Hot in the west. Medium (40%) chance of showers, mostly in the afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning then tending westerly during the day.


Thursday late morning update

Posted on December 7th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
Hope you were lucky enough to get in somewhere this morning. What a beautiful postcard of a day. Fun shoulder to head and bit sets were on tap from Long Reef to the point – and lots of other places too.
My first tentative surf after my surfer’s ear op a couple months ago. Longest I’ve been out of the water since 1983! Had a fun sesh at Longy with a smallish crowd – at least one of whom is a long time RealSurfer. So good to be back in the water. When I got out, I grabbed the camera and took a few snaps to share…

Dee Why point, 1115

Dee Why point

Dee Why point

Kiddies keeping them entertained

Dee Why fun times 1105

Not far from the Pole, 1045

Blowing the top of one near the lagoon, Dy to Longy


Looking good at Dee Why

Posted on December 7th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
The pictures tell the story. The point looked solid this morning and the pre-work crew were on it. Here are the numbers: east, 2 m, 10 seconds with wind NW 5-7 kt. Tide was low at 0530 and will be a deep 1.95 m high at 1155.

I’d say there will be lots of surf options early, but it’s supposed to go NE late morning and that obviously means curtailed options by the time the tide is peaking.

The plan is to hit it ASAP this morning if you can.

Have a great day and I’ll try to add an update later…

Set hits the point at 0645

Ferocious suck up

Up the beach they wait for another set at 0645

Weather Situation

Winds will tend east to northeasterly along the New South Wales coast this afternoon ahead of a front that is moving into the state from the southwest today. This front will bring a southerly change to most of the coast during Friday.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Winds
Northwesterly 10 to 15 knots turning northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the late morning. Winds reaching up to 25 knots in the late evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Easterly 1.5 to 2 metres.
Weather
Sunny.

Friday 8 December

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots early in the morning. Winds shifting southerly in the morning.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Easterly 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 30% chance of a shower in the afternoon.

Saturday 9 December

Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 20 knots becoming variable about 10 knots during the evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
2nd Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 20% chance of a shower.

Late morning update

Posted on December 6th, 2017 in At large.

Tide swamping it this morning. Pick of the spots looked like North Steyne, but there were waves at the Bower, south Steyne, Queenscliff, DY point, DY beach, south Narrabeen and North Narrabeen.

North Narra

North Narra

Kiddies, Dee Why

Gardens

Tea Gardens looking slabby 1000

North Steyne 0900 Wed (gallery to come)

North Steyne 0900 Wed (gallery to come)

North Steyne 0900 Wed (gallery to come)

Bower

North Steyne 0900 Wed (gallery to come)

North Steyne 0900 Wed (gallery to come)

North Steyne 0900 Wed (gallery to come)

North Steyne 0900 Wed (gallery to come)

North Steyne 0900 Wed (gallery to come)


Swell pushing in on Wednesday morning

Posted on December 6th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
Wind was coming from the SW at 5-10 kts as of 0730. Swell was coming from the north east and the south, but the latter was the dominant note at 3 metres and about 10 seconds apart. Tide is coming into another very deep 2 metres at 1100, so the current full looking conditions aren’t going to improve until mid-afternoon. By then the wind could be around to the northerly quarters and the southerly component of the swell starting to fade.
So, a complex picture but one dominated by a very high tide.
Dee Why was showing chest to head high faces on the bomb sets, but as you can see from the pics, the conditions weren’t particularly clean. There were waves along the beach as well which, if anything looked to be bigger on average than at the point. Again, quality is not too impressive, but the energy is there. Outlook across the next few days is for the energy to gradually fade toward small to marginal by late Saturday-Sunday morning.
I’ll try to update later in the day and in the meantime, have a good one!

Not exactly clean, but you could catch ’em at 0715

The point crew in attendance at 0720

Just north of Kiddies at 0720

Waves bouncing off North Head

Lion Island indicator showing a little activity

Weather Situation

A low pressure lies off the New South Wales coast, and a low pressure circulation within the trough is moving southwards. This low is expected to deepen off the south coast later today as it quickly moves away from New South Wales towards the southern ocean. During Thursday, the trough will move east and lose its influence, allowing winds to turn north to northeasterly throughout as a front approaches from the west. This front is forecast to bring a southerly change to the New South Wales coast during Friday and Saturday.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Wednesday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Southwesterly 10 to 15 knots, reaching up to 30 knots offshore early in the morning. Winds shifting westerly during the morning then northeast to northwesterly in the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre, decreasing to 0.5 metres during the afternoon.
1st Swell
East to northeasterly 2 to 2.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre by early evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers inshore, 20% chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm this afternoon.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Thursday 7 December

Winds
Northwesterly 10 to 15 knots tending northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the late morning.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
1st Swell
Easterly 1.5 to 2 metres.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

Friday 8 December

Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots becoming variable about 10 knots during the day then becoming southerly 15 to 25 knots during the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Easterly 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 30% chance of a shower. The chance of a thunderstorm.

 

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