Archive for January 2018

King tides, pauper waves

Posted on January 3rd, 2018 in Dee Why.

Nothing doing at Dee Why as of 0600

Faint chop and nothing more

QF76 and full moon – 14 hours after leaving Vancouver

Hello Friends,

10 kts of SW wind and partly cloudy skies as of 0600, but still no waves. The latest MHL data from 0300 was showing 1.5 m of 5-sec south wind bump and that, plus the wind, plus the incoming king tide at 0956 meant no waves for Dee Why.
Outlook is for the ocean to remain quiescent today – and for well into next week.
Wish it was otherwise, but there ya go. At least we’re another day closer to the waves returning.
Have a great day everyone!

Weather Situation

A southerly surge, associated with a cold front passing to the south, is forecast to reach the north coast during today. Meanwhile, a high pressure system in the Bight extends a ridge to the east. This high is expected to move to the Tasman Sea later Thursday and Friday, bringing a gradual shift to generally northerly winds over New South Wales waters.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm during the morning and afternoon.

Thursday 4 January

Winds
Southerly 10 to 15 knots becoming variable below 10 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Friday 5 January

Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the day.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Missable Tuesday morning

Posted on January 2nd, 2018 in Dee Why.

Flat conditions at 0800

Barely a hint of any activity at the point and in the corner

Hello Friends,

I can keep it very short for the first Tuesday in 2018 – it was flat at Dee Why as of 0800.

Looking around at the cams, it would seem the best you can hope for is a ankle to knee high at stretches optimally aligned to the short period SSE bump. Tide is a deep 2 m high at 0905.

The Bureau’s modelling shows a very brief short period south swell event tomorrow morning, but there’ll be south wind with it , so the quality outlook is not too exciting. But at least there’s a prospect of non-flatness.

After that the models show a return to short-period flat to near flatness well into next week. But, the long range call for 10 days out currently is a little more hopeful. We’ll see… by then your correspondent will be watching and commenting on the indicators from the other side of the planet.

Have a great Tuesday everyone!

Weather Situation

A weak trough will stall then decay on the northern coast during today. A more vigorous southerly surge associated with a cold front passing to the south is forecast to move along the coast on Wednesday, while a high pressure system in the Bight extends a ridge to the east. This high is expected to move to the Tasman Sea later Thursday and Friday, bringing a gradual shift to generally northerly winds over most waters.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight

Winds
South to southeasterly about 10 knots becoming east to northeasterly in the late afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm later tonight.

Wednesday 3 January

Winds
Southerly about 10 knots increasing to 15 to 25 knots before dawn.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon.

Thursday 4 January

Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots becoming southeasterly about 10 knots during the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Happy New Year 2018

Posted on January 1st, 2018 in Dee Why.

Little bumps only

Maybe surfable right in the corner

Quiet up the beach

Happy New Year Friends,

Traditional late start for me this morning. When I finally climbed aloft around 0910 for a look at the situation, the sun was beating down, the wind was light and appeared to be very small to near flat at Dee Why. We’re heading to a high of 28 along the beaches today under mostly sunny skies (extreme UV from 0840-1700). Tide was a deep 1.96 m at 0810 and is now dropping to a 0.19 m low at 1450. The MHL buoy was seeing a metre of 6-sec east wind bump as of 0700, so figure on ankle to knee with maybe the occasional waist on the bombs. Also figure on full force crowds because it’s such a perfect beach day.

From the look of the models, the short period barely there wind bump is likely to dominate for the front half of the week, but we could see a slight uptick in energy Wednesday when it seems we’ll also have southerlies and showery weather.

Some of the long range models are a bit more hopeful for early next week when you might start seeing average periods creeping up into the 10-sec range and swell coming from the ESE in the metre-ish category. By then your correspondent will be in the northern hemisphere for a few weeks.

Have yourself a top old New Year’s Day and best of luck if you go for a splash!

 

Weather Situation

North to northeasterly northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast ahead of a weak and brief southerly change on the south and central coasts during Tuesday. A stronger southerly change associated with a cold front crossing the southern Tasman Sea is expected to develop along the south coast late Tuesday and extending to the north coast overnight.

Forecast for Monday until midnight

Winds
North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots becoming variable about 10 knots in the middle of the day then becoming south to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm.

Tuesday 2 January

Winds
Variable about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Wednesday 3 January

Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon or evening.
Weather
Cloudy. 80% chance of showers.

 

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