Archive for February 2018

Some swell, some wind

Posted on February 17th, 2018 in At large.

Dee Why point 0640

Near the pole 0640

Not super clean or very big at the point, but rideable

Swell starting to show at south Narrabeen

Kneelo jags one at Northy 0630

Near the Pole, 0640

Hello Friends,

Nothing like as big as most of the models predicted this morning. But the swell’s definitely picking up and the cyclone is still out there pushing the energy our way. Surface conditions were junky and choppy from first light thanks to a steady ENE breeze. It was blowing about 5-10 kts when I grabbed the pics around 0630 and the Bureau tells us it’ll pick up to 15-20 kts later. As of 0400 there was a combo of south and NE swells. The south component was slightly more dominant but both are close to the 2 metre mark with periods around 12 seconds.

Tide hits a 1.75 m high at 1015.

As the pictures show, waves were in the chest high range and kinda messy looking. And the latest run of the models suggests it will stick around this intensity until Tuesday-ish when we could see a potentially significant bump up. But right now, it would seem the really big stuff will be up north. Quality is shaping to be not so red hot thanks to a steady supply of onshore wind right across the period.

Have yourself a great Saturday. I’ll be keeping an eye on it of course, so check back for more pics and thoughts later in the day.

 


0830 looking fun – with waits

Posted on February 16th, 2018 in Manly.

Got a park at Queensie and grabbed some snaps for you. Swell quite inconsistent but North Steyne was picking up head high sets between the lulls. Nothing showing at the Bower and Queensie end touch smaller than middle of beach.

Solid on the rare sets at North Steyne

North Steyne 0830

Queenscliff set wave 0830

South Steyne


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on February 15th, 2018 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 15 February 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Hey, you know those Warnings on labels that you never read?… And those Alerts on things you just ignore???

Well here’s TG’s upfront Alerting Warning

The Surf Forecast below, particularly for later in the week is what is likely to happen IF Severe Tropical Cyclone Gita out in the South Pacific BEST TRACKS where she is currently expected to (Gita herself isn’t expected to come near Oz). IF SHE DOESN’T, the Surf here could turn out smaller. The BoM says that Tropical Cyclones have a reputation for being unpredictable.

And another thing… Current weather forecasts suggest more chopping and changing SE/ NE onshore winds.

So I wouldn’t get too excited about the Outlook for Wave Quality if the Big Waves do come.

Stay cool and Go with the Flow…

Friday: in the 1-2 metre range East; watch for the sets in the upper end of the range

Saturday: ditto similar

Sunday: ditto and up a little on the sets

Monday: similar

Tuesday: up into the 3-4 metre range East South East and sets (What did I tell you??.. see above)

Wednesday: 2-3 metre range East South East and sets (ditto?)

Thursday: 1-2 metre range South East 

Apropos nothing in particular, or maybe as a homage to possibly Big(ger) Waves, here’s a little something to enrich your education and entertainment experience…Learn something new each day
Tick off all those you’ve been to! And yes… there is a “Big Wave”!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australia%27s_big_things

TG

Up in the Sky

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Feb 15 06:30:00 2018

There’s Gita…off to the right

Colour Forecast map for next 4 days

Down in the Sea

Water temp’s about 24

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Oh, here’s some more Large Surf warnings for you…

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Mostly clear.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Clear. Winds northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

Friday 16 February

Summary
Min 20
Max 28
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny day. Slight (20%) chance of a shower at night. Light winds becoming south to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then turning southeasterly 20 to 30 km/h in the middle of the day.

Fire Danger – Very High

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

 

Saturday 17 February

Summary
Min 21
Max 27
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower in the early morning. Winds southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h turning northeasterly in the late morning and afternoon.

Surf conditions in the evening may be more powerful than they appear and are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing and swimming.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

Sunday 18 February

Summary
Min 21
Max 29
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.2 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower in the evening. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

Surf conditions may be more powerful than they appear and are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing and swimming.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Monday 19 February

Summary
Min 22
Max 27
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers, most likely in the evening. Light winds becoming east to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing, swimming and surfing.

Tuesday 20 February

Summary
Min 21
Max 24
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 3 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. Winds southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light during the morning then becoming southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 21 February

Summary
Min 19
Max 24
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers. Light winds.

Thursday 22 February

Summary
Min 19
Max 26
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 3 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.


Dee Why junky but bigger than it’s been

Posted on February 15th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Stopped by Dee Why around 1015 and grabbed the pics below. SSE wind is light but it was starting to really mess things up. I’m waiting for the tide to drop, but am wondering if it’ll be worth it by then.

Working a little DY shorey 1015

Lines up the beach

Lines at the point

The crew on it near Kiddies

Just up the beach from DY SLSC 1015

Rideable lumps at the point every now and then


Bigger lumps at Curly

Posted on February 15th, 2018 in Curl Curl.

Half a dozen chasing shories in the middle of the beach at Curly. Wind not going strong but it was very lumpy and messy looking. The plan was to risk life and limb on the inside where the slop briefly transformed into chest plus crunchers as it unloaded on the banks. Definitely more energy and size than yesterday. The MHL buoy was showing 2.7 m at 9 sec from the SSE as of 0700.

Looked like this for 0.5 s and then it was over – mid Curly

Only a few meters from dry sand at 0940

The crew among the choppy bumps at mid-Curly

Sole occupant at North Curly


Hints of things to come?

Posted on February 15th, 2018 in Manly.

Hello Friends,

Stopped by Manly a little after 0900. Tide was pretty fat and full, the SE wind was bumping it up, but as I sit here typing it’s wandered around to the SW – and the swell is definitely bigger than it’s been over the last few days. I’d call it knee to waist right now at Queensie. Will be interesting to see what I find at Curly and Dee Why, but based on what I’ve seen here, I’m prepared to call it just starting to pick up…

Setting it up

Mid-Steyne cutty

Unsurfable at the Bower, but maybe later??

Beach walkers

South Steyne scene

Busting one

Weather Situation

A southerly change associated with a cold front is moving along the New South Wales north coast and weakening. Winds will briefly turn northerly later on Thursday ahead of another southerly change developing on the south coast overnight and moving up the coast during Friday.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 20 knots shifting north to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre in the morning.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Friday 16 February

Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots becoming variable about 10 knots before dawn then becoming south to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the morning. Winds reaching up to 25 knots offshore in the evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Northeast to southeasterly below 1 metre, tending east to northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then tending easterly 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
Weather
Mostly sunny. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore.

Saturday 17 February

Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 20 knots turning easterly 10 to 15 knots during the morning.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
1st Swell
Easterly 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1.5 metres offshore during the evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning.

Dee Why not so hot either

Posted on February 14th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Slightly more activity at Dee Why than at Curly, but only very slightly. The surf school was in full swing up at Longy while down at the south end there were a few bods hanging out hopefully for the odd knee high dribbler. As with everywhere else, the surf options were about as limited as they could get.


Seaweed piling up near the storm water drain at Dee Why

Surf school in session

Up and riding – briefly

Reader and surfers


Curly no go

Posted on February 14th, 2018 in Curl Curl.

One person in the water at Curly as of 0900ish. Not really catchable.

One person in the water… and he gave up shortly after this was taken…

Chilling between fishing efforts


Manly minor mumbles

Posted on February 14th, 2018 in Manly.

Tide was near the 0825 1.68 m high when I grabbed the snaps from Manly this morning. It was fat and full, but given how tiny it was, I’m not sure tide was the biggest issue. Waves were weak and struggling to make thigh high on the biggest ones. Plus, it was inconsistent and there were only three or four peaks along the beach. Nice and warm though!
On to Curly and Dee Why for a look…

Scoping the surf options at Manly

Massive set wave this morning at Manly

Queenscliff logging action

Weather Situation

Winds will tend northerly along most of the coast today ahead of a a cold front approaching from the southwest. This front is forecast to bring a strong southerly change to southern waters later today, with the change weakening during Thursday as it moves up the north coast. Winds will then briefly turn northerly again ahead of the next southerly change expected on Friday.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Wednesday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning north to northwesterly below 10 knots in the evening, ahead of a gusty southerly change 20 to 30 knots in the late evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Cloud clearing.

Thursday 15 February

Strong Wind Warning for Thursday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Southerly 20 to 30 knots tending south to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots before dawn and becoming variable below 10 knots in the late morning. Winds becoming northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing below 0.5 metres during the morning, then increasing to around 1 metre by early evening.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Friday 16 February

Winds
South to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots tending south to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the day.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Doing the rounds on a tiny morning

Posted on February 13th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Another vain attempt to get into a Curly burger at 0900.

 

After a long wait, someone finally gets a take off at Curly.

 

Student surfer working on her form on a killer set at Dee Why around 0910.

 

Two optimists.

 

0915 and as the flags go up, the onshore is starting to kick in.

 

Hello Friends,

Not much to add to my earlier report from Manly this morning. Curl Curl was, if anything, smaller than Manly, while Dee Why was a tiny bit bigger than either. Surface conditions were just beginning to chop up with the arrival of the east wind and the swell was struggling to make the knee high mark on the catchable ones. Plus the lulls were really long for what is basically wind chop. So, if you have to miss it today, I’d be unconcerned.

Cyclone Gita has been doing some serious damage to our Pacific island neighbours over the last 24 hours and it looks like intensifying as it moves westward. Tonga and American Samoa have been hit hard. Latest reports say winds were hitting 260 kph in Tonga and as of midnight the call was for it to be at Category 5 intensity by the time it gets to Fijiian waters. The latest predictions show it arcing toward the south as it enters the Tasman between here and NZ. And that should mean all the forecast models’ predictions for solid to big east swell are likely right.

We could potentially see the forerunners Thursday afternoon, with the swell filling in overnight and becoming obvious at east exposures Friday. Right now it seems we could have overhead to 2x overhead conditions from late Friday through to midweek. And the wind call doesn’t look too bad for the mornings either – light onshores basically.

Could be interesting…

Weather Situation

A weak trough lies about the Illawarra coast, and another along the north coast. These troughs will dissipate later today, with generally northerly winds becoming established by Wednesday morning as a cold front approaches from the west. This front will bring a southerly change to the south coast later Wednesday and the north coast during Thursday.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight

Winds
Easterly about 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the morning.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore around midday.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre around midday.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers in the morning and early afternoon.

Wednesday 14 February

Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots becoming variable about 10 knots in the morning then becoming east to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

Thursday 15 February

Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 20 knots turning northeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy

 

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