Archive for April 2018

Smooth but tiny early

Posted on April 21st, 2018 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Masses of grey cloud off to the south when I checked conditions around 0630 but the forecast south wind hadn’t yet arrived and the ocean was looking smooth and clean. It won’t last though because the forecast is calling for 10-15 kts of s-se later.  Swell at 0500 was coming from the SSE at 13 seconds apart but only a metre out at sea. As the pictures show, it’s not making much of an impression on our beaches. Sets at magnet spots were struggling to get above the knee high mark. And they were pretty few and far between.

Tide was low at 0625 and is now heading to a 1.37 m high at 1235. We should see a high around 24° and water has cooled to 20°.

The MHL’s modelling is projecting surf conditions to bump along at about the current intensity for at least another 2-3 days. But thereafter the models are starting to look rather interesting, particularly as we get toward Thursday-Friday. The swell looks interesting I should say, because the current projections indicate a feisty ECL in close to the coast (ie blasting wind and showery skies).

Have yourself a top old Saturday one and all!

 

 

Optimist wading out at south Narrabeen 0645

 

All’s quiet at Narrabeen

 

Saturday sunrise

 

No man’s

 

Northy producing knee to waist high bumps at 0640

 

Butterbox

 

Dee Why point with one acolyte waiting hopefully for a bump

 

No Mans just barely doing it 

Forecast issued at 4:10 am EST on Saturday 21 April 2018.

Weather Situation

A high pressure system near Tasmania extends a ridge into southeast New South Wales, while a trough lies just off the northern coast. This pattern is bringing southeast to northeasterly winds to most coastal areas, with little change expected through the next few days.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Winds
South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots, reaching 20 knots offshore during the morning.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Sunday 22 April

Winds
Southeasterly about 10 knots becoming east to northeasterly in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Monday 23 April

Winds
Westerly about 10 knots becoming northeasterly around midday.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Little waves as the swell fades

Posted on April 20th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
Sunny skies and light SW breeze at 0715 when I climbed aloft to the RealSurf crows nest to grab a few snaps for your good self. As you can see, it’s down noticeably from this time yesterday. I’d call the point knee high and the beach knee to maybe waist and a bit. And the Bureau says it should drop a little more too. As of 0600 the MHL buoy was detecting a metre from 165° (SSE) at 13.8 sec. Tide was coming in from the 0530 low as it heads to a 1.4 m high at 1135.
Should be a partly cloudy day with a high of 25 and wind should go to the north at 10-15 kts. Water is getting cooler now and is currently around the 20° mark.
And the outlook? Well it’s Friday morning, so we have a piping hot fresh forecast from the Goat to answer your every question.
Have yourself a top old Friday everyone!

Tiny trickle of energy along the rocks

 

Kiddies lines at 0715

 

Maybe something at No Mans, but not much

Weather Situation

A slow-moving high pressure system over the Tasman Sea extends a ridge towards the New South Wales north coast, while a weak southerly change is expected to reach the far north coast early tomorrow. Winds will slowly turn southeast to northeasterly along New South Wales waters over the next couple of days as the high lingers in the region, while a low pressure trough is expected to develop off the northern coast and deepen over the weekend.

Forecast for Friday until midnight

Winds
Northerly 10 to 15 knots shifting southerly early in the morning.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore.

Saturday 21 April

Winds
Southerly about 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore in the early morning.

Sunday 22 April

Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the evening.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on April 19th, 2018 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 19 April 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

You know how the Bureau has been issuing those powerful surf warnings…and you might or mightn’t have seen much powerful surf?  So you’ve wondered what the hey are they talkin’ about??

Well TG is here to help, cause you might see a few more of those warnings in coming days, as The Bureau updates its daily forecasts…

First, the Bureau needs to improve those warnings by at least giving the powerful set swell direction in its warnings (as TG has suggested to them,,,and period would be even better)…

Today for example you would have seen the swell fading in the arvo, but, at places that were open to dead South swell, there were sets bigger than the average wave conditions from time to time.

But if you were somewhere protected from dead South swell, it would have been closer to a lake.

Second, to help you get more meaning out of the BoM’s updates of powerful surf conditions warnings, see TG’s forecast below…  Innovating surf forecasts since 1997 …Inventing new words since forever…:)

Friday: down a bit from today, mainly in the lower end of the 1-2 metre range from South East, but with 9-10 sec peak sets from time to time at places that get dead South swell

Saturday: down a bit more as the swell turns more South, but again with 10-11 peak sets at places open to dead South swell (ie they mightn’t be big but they’ll have a bit of oomph behind ’em)

Sunday: up a little from the South East, still lower end of the 1-2 metre range most of the time, but with 11-13 peak sets from dead South

Monday: and similar again

Tuesday: up in the 1-2 metre range from South South East, and with bigger sets from South South East (14-15 sec peak period)

Wednesday: easing back a little East South East, and sets from South East (11-13 peak)

Thursday: similar but more East in it, and with 9-10 sec peak sets from the East.

Hope that helps 🙂

Remember the Diggers on Anzac Day.

TG

Up in the Sky

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Apr 19 07:30:00 2018

MSLP Analysis for Thu Apr 19 00:00:00 2018 AUTC

Down in the Sea

Water temps have started to cool…around 20-22 now

image

Weather from the Bureau:

http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/sydney.shtml


Waves to be had early

Posted on April 19th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Waist to chest with the odd plus at Dee Why this morning when I checked for the first time a little before 0700. As of 0730 wind was light from the NW. It should come around to the north at 10-15 kts later. Tide is coming in to a 1.5 m high at 1040. The MHL buoy was showing 1.4 m of 11 sec SSE swell.

The models show the swell fading across the day, but interestingly the Bureau is warning about deceptively powerful conditions again tomorrow morning.

Get in ASAP looks to be the plan!

Set at the point 

 

Kiddies peak 

 

No Mans wave 

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea extends a ridge towards the north coast. This high will remain in the region for the remainder of the week, with a passing trough forecast to bring a brief southerly chance to southern and central parts of the coast later today and tomorrow.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Winds
Northerly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm late this afternoon and evening.
Caution
Surf conditions may be more powerful than they appear and are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Friday 20 April

Winds
Northerly 10 to 15 knots turning westerly in the morning then south to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the late morning.Winds reaching up to 20 knots inshore in the early afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres inshore around midday.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.
Caution
Surf conditions in the early morning may be more powerful than they appear and are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Saturday 21 April

Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending east to southeasterly about 10 knots during the morning.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 40% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm

Wind into it early

Posted on April 18th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
Had a look at Curly and Dee Why this morning. Unfortunately the steady ESE wind (6-9 kts) was making the swell look pretty ordinary. There were no takers that I saw at Curly a little before 0800 and around at Dee Why numbers were way down on yesterday. The point was less consistent and noticeably smaller despite the MHL buoy showing only a slight change since yesterday. It was still 2.4 metres at close to 12 sec from the SSE, so I was mildly surprised to see wave faces in the waist to shoulder plus range as opposed to shoulder to a bit overhead range of yesterday. The Bureau also has a warning that surf conditions may be more powerful than they appear, so who knows, maybe I rocked up in the middle of a lull.

Next tide is a 1.6m high at 0950. It’ll be back to low at 1545.

Wind should go around to the NE in the afternoon, so maybe that’ll dial up prospects in the north corners that most definitely weren’t evident this morning.

Swell is predicted to fade to near flat by the weekend, but with any luck tomorrow and Friday morning should have the odd fun little bump in the waist-ish range at dead south spots. This morning’s long range models are suggesting near flat over the weekend but small (knee to waist) for the front half of next week, maybe improving slightly Thr-Fri. Maybe…

Have a great Wednesday one and all!

 

Wading along on a little shorey near Kiddies 0800

 

 

Finding a little energy at the top

Still some lines, but very choppy and messy looking

 

Weather Situation

A high pressure system near Tasmania is expected to move over the Tasman Sea today and extend a ridge along the New South Wales coast, turning winds east to northeasterly. This high will then remain in the region for the remainder of the week with a passing trough forecast to bring a brief southerly change to southern and central parts of the coast on Thursday and Friday.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots becoming northeasterly in the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Caution
Surf conditions may be more powerful than they appear and are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Thursday 19 April

Winds
North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.
Caution
Surf conditions may be more powerful than they appear and are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Friday 20 April

Winds
Northerly 10 to 15 knots tending south to southeast 10 to 15 knots during the morning.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening

Southerly morning

Posted on April 17th, 2018 in At large.

Hello Friends,
Saw Curly and then Dee Why around 0900-ish this morning. The sky was darkening and the south wind was bumping it up, but there are definitely head plus sets coming in. Problem is that they seemed to be really slow and gutless. THe HML buoy was showing 12 seconds, so not sure what’s going on. Maybe it’s the 1.65 m high tide at 0900…
Hardly anyone in the water at south Curly, but it looked like a fair amount of work for slow and sloppy overhead wave faces. 20+ in the water at the point and a few scattered up the beach from there at Dee Why. Again, choppy, lumpy and ponderous is how I’d describe it.
Swell is set to build to 3 metres out at sea and the wind should be 15-25 kts from the S-SW. So not utterly hopeless if you’re keen.
Tomorrow the wind is supposed to be more SE-NE across the day, but not blowing as hard as the forecast for today.
Swell ought to stick around too and then it declines on Thursday while wind goes north. Right now from Friday onward into the front half of next week looks like being really small to flat on most of the models.
Have yourself a grand Tuesday one and all!

Bomb set at point

Bump showing on the bombies at 0910

Moment of suck up speed

Wind south at south Curly

Sizable but slow sets at south Curly

Trying to keep it going at the point


Beautiful but looking flat at Dee Why

Posted on April 16th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Sunny skies, light NW breeze – and less than half a metre of 12-sec SE swell. Couldn’t see any sign of a wave at the Dee Why end of the beach and given that, I’d be surprised if there was a wave anywhere else this morning.

So the obvious question is; when will we see an improvement? And the answer is: not long. The Bureau says the swell should ramp up tomorrow morning. Unfortunately it’s looking like the wind will go from the SW to southerly as the swell ramps. So, maybe there’ll be a little window of opportunity, but then again, maybe not. Wednesday looks a little more hopeful, particularly in the afternoon when the wind is set to swing from the SE to the NE as the swell pushes along at 2-2.5 metres from the south.

The models predict northerly wind on Thursday as the south swell fades toward the metre mark by Friday morning. Beyond that, the long range consensus is not too fabulous. If they’re right, the second week of NSW school holidays could be marginal to near flat. But I wouldn’t be locking in plans on that basis, because those long range predictions are highly speculative.

Have yourself a top old Monday everyone!

 

Beautiful morning light making Dee Why glow 

Weather Situation

A low pressure system to the far southeast of Tasmania is moving slowly east directing westerly winds across the western Tasman Sea. Winds along the New South coast will tend southwest to southeasterly during Tuesday as a high pressure system moves near Tasmania extending a ridge to the north.

Forecast for Monday until midnight

Winds
West to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots tending west to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots in the evening. Winds reaching up to 25 knots offshore in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre around midday, then increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres later in the evening.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Sunny.

Tuesday 17 April

Winds
Southwesterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots offshore early in the morning. Winds turning southeasterly during the morning.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres offshore.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy. 60% chance of showers.

Wednesday 18 April

Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning northeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy.

Flat Sunday morning

Posted on April 15th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

What a stunning morning. Clear skies, mild temp and a steady offshore perfectly grooming the sea surface. Alas, as the pictures reveal, there is no surf at Dee Why. MHL must be having technical difficulties because the only buoy reporting in this morning was Batemans Bay. For what it’s worth, it was showing less than a metre of 9 second SSE. So the flatness is obviously pretty widespread.
Not that it has any bearing on our prospects, but the tide was 1.7 m at 0740 and is currently dropping to the 0.37 m low at 1350.
Should be mostly sunny today, with a high of 25°.
The models are showing a slight upward bump around lunchtime today, but it’s not looking likely to be much above the knee high mark.
Monday is shaping to be near flat again, but there might be a little uptick in the afternoon from the SSE. On Tuesday we’re set to have showery, SE’ly conditions. The swell should build with the wind, but I’m not hopeful about the quality for most places. Maybe on Thursday morning we’ll get light winds for the morning session along with some remnant straight south swell…
Have a great Sunday everybody!

Beautiful morning at Dee Why but no waves 

 

Faint and tiny line at No Mans 0750 


 
 

Weather Situation

A low pressure system southeast of Tasmania is moving slowly east directing westerly winds across the western Tasman Sea .Winds along the New South coast will tend southwest to southeasterly during Tuesday as a high pressure system moves near Tasmania extending a ridge to the north.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Westerly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots in the late morning and afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
1st Swell
Southeasterly below 1 metre, tending southerly 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Monday 16 April

Winds
Westerly 15 to 25 knots tending northwesterly 10 to 15 knots in the morning then turning west to southwesterly 15 to 25 knots in the late morning and afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres later in the evening.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the morning.
Weather
Sunny.

Tuesday 17 April

Winds
Southwesterly 15 to 20 knots turning southeasterly 15 to 25 knots during the morning.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy. 70% chance of showers.

Lake like Saturday morning

Posted on April 14th, 2018 in At large.

Hello Friends,

At daybreak, as the tide was approaching the 1.6 m high at 0700 and the wind was coming steadily from the NW at 8-10 kts, the ocean was smooth inshore. Smooth and just about perfectly flat between the tiny sets. Out at sea there was a sub-metre sized NE bump. Skies were overcast and the temperature was an alarming for mid-April 24°. We’re set to reach 31° as the skies clear later.

Along the beaches conditions were very clean and wave faces on the sets were in the knee to thigh high range. There were a fair number of folk in the water up around North Narrabeen but it was unsurfably flat south of there. Around the corner at the Longy to Dee Why stretch, there were equally tiny conditions and the people in the water were clustered in a zone from roughly No Mans to a little north of the lagoon.

Tomorrow’s likely to be even smaller and right now it looks as though the energy won’t be coming back until midweek according to most, but not all, of the swell models. So maybe take the mal for a micro wave this morning and then keep an eye on it, but know that you’re not going to miss anything spectacular.

Have a top old Saturday and stay in touch, because flat or not, I’ll be checking it out for you every morning.

Sauntering at south Narrabeen

 

Near the pole at 0640

 

Near the pole 0640

 

Narrabeen overview

 

Fair number of hopefuls around Northy this morning

Weather Situation

Northwesterly winds along the New South Wales coast will turn vigorous westerly later Saturday and early Sunday in a wake of cold front with an associated low to the south moving east across the southern Tasman Sea. Winds will tend southwest to southeasterly during Tuesday as a high pressure system moves over the southern Tasman Sea extending a ridge along the coast.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast

Winds
West to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots reaching up to 30 knots offshore.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
60% chance of showers early this morning. A thunderstorm likely early this morning. Sunny afternoon.

Sunday 15 April

Strong Wind Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Westerly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots offshore.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
1st Swell
Southeasterly below 1 metre, tending southerly 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

Monday 16 April

Winds
Westerly 15 to 20 knots tending north to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots during the morning then tending west to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots during the evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Sunny.

Definitely a few waves around

Posted on April 13th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Heavy smoke haze this morning so picture quality not the best, but you should be able to see that there were interesting sets turning up at Dee Why at around 0700 this morning. The MHL Sydney buoy isn’t reporting in at the moment, but down the coast at Pt Kembla it was SSE, 1.4 m at 14 seconds. Looking at the Dee Why end of the beach and the point, I’d be calling it waist with chest plusses from time to time.

Wind was NW 10-15 kts at 0730 and it should increase a little as the day gets to the (insane) high of 35°

Tide was a 1.6 m high at 0615 and we’re currently headed to the 0.45 m low at 1245.

Outlook you ask? Check the Goat’s thoughts!

Have a top old Friday everyone!

No Mans lines

Set at the point 0650

0650

Inside, waves?

 

 

 

Forecast for Friday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Friday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Northwesterly 15 to 20 knots turning northerly in the middle of the day. Winds reaching up to 30 knots in the late evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres by early evening.
1st Swell
Southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, tending southerly around 1 metre by early evening.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Sunny morning. The chance of a thunderstorm during this afternoon and evening.

Saturday 14 April

Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast

Winds
North to northwesterly 20 to 30 knots becoming northwesterly 20 to 25 knots in the middle of the day then increasing to 25 to 30 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning.

Sunday 15 April

Winds
West to northwesterly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon or evening.
1st Swell
South to southeasterly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

 

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