Archive for June 2018

Monday morning waves

Posted on June 25th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

A hardy crew amongst them at the point and along the beach by 0730 this morning. Sunny skies and a chilly 8-9 kt WNW wind were creating an attractive setting for the 2 metre 9-10 sec SSE (165°) swell. It looked a bit inconsistent and the average wave face on sets was around the waist to chest high range at the point, but from where people were sitting, there must be a few bigger ones. The beach seemed to be about the same size as the point, maybe a touch bigger as you head north, but as we head toward low tide at noon I’d expect the shutdown to makeable ratio will go the wrong way.
The forecast calls for the swell to fade across the day and tomorrow should be a little smaller – but hopefully not flat. The dropping trend could see us back to flat or near enough by the end of the week.
Speaking of next week, I’ll be back in postcard mode for July as I travel through some non-surf corners of the world. As usual I’ll try to take advantage of the time zones to post early summaries of the prospects for Sydney, but it’ll be sporadic I’m guessing.
Have yourself a great Monday everyone!

Nice looking shutdown at Dee Why 0730

Waist high sets for the most part

The occasional bigger one

Weather Situation

A south to southwesterly flow over the waters will tend southeast to northeasterly during Tuesday as a high pressure system moves over the southwestern Tasman Sea extending a ridge to the northwest.

Forecast for Monday until midnight

Winds
South to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots tending south to southeasterly below 10 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 2 metres by early evening.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Tuesday 26 June

Winds
South to southeasterly about 10 knots becoming easterly in the late evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Wednesday 27 June

Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Out for a ride

Posted on June 24th, 2018 in At large.

Lots of folks in the water from Cooks to Mona Vale but no one at warriewood and single punter at little Narra. Size about knee to waist. 25 or so chasing slightly bigger ones at Northy.


Sunny, clean, small but still surfable

Posted on June 24th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

As expected, the swell continued its slow fade overnight and this morning sees only about a metre of 9-10 sec period  SSE (152°) waves. At 0745 the wind was coming from the west at 9 to 12 kts and skies were mostly clear. There were a few people in the water along the beach at Dee Why but there just isn’t enough in the swell to get the point going. Size looked to be in the waist to occasionally chest range. Waves were breaking pretty close to the beach on the dropping tide.

From what I’ve seen over the last few days, lower tides are mostly seeing shutdown conditions, but as we get back to high tide some interesting peaks in close to shore start to work. Tide’s low at 1120 today and will be back to a 1.7 m high just after dark at 1755.

Yesterday evening Eden buoy went hard south and began to see swell in the 1.8 metre range but only about 9 seconds apart. The Bureau tells us to expect the wind to swing south and be 15-20 kts later, so I expect that swell to get here at around the same time.

Tomorrow should see more swell from the south with decaying southerly wind.  Could be interesting…. surf of one sort or another seems likely through to midweek but after that… not so red hot looking on the models right now.

Have a top old Sunday everyone!

 

Another fun little wave

Not enough energy for the point to light up

Shoulda gone the left

Breaking just off the beach 

 

Weather Situation

A south to southwesterly flow over the waters will tend southeast to northeasterly during Tuesday as a high pressure system moves over the southwestern Tasman Sea extending a ridge to the northwest.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight

Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers.

Monday 25 June

Winds
South to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots tending south to southeasterly below 10 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Tuesday 26 June

Winds
South to southeasterly about 10 knots becoming east to northeasterly during the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres during the afternoon or evening.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Fadey day

Posted on June 23rd, 2018 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Looks fun out there. Waves in the shoulder plus range on the biggest sets, but mostly chest to a little less. Lotsa folks in the water at Northy, hardly anyone among the shutdowns south of there, then around the corner at Longy there were heaps of people chasing shutty-downy but head high sets. A bit smaller as you get to Kiddies and the point, but definitely a few to be had there.

Pics up in a bit…

To fill in the other details, at 0500 the MHL buoy was seeing 1.4 m from the SE (135°) at 11-12 seconds. Tide was dropping to the 0.5m low at 1035. It’ll be back to a 1.6 m high at 1710.

Outlook is for tomorrow and Monday morning to be southerly. Swell should be marginal tomorrow, but pushing back up Monday and if the Bureau has it right, the southerly should back off late in the day.  By Tuesday the swell should be settling back again, but the wind is set to be offshore, so there could be some fun ones on tap. Plus the weather should be sunny again.

Well attended at Northy 0700

Pretty one

Not huge but surfable at the point

Another wave at the point for the crew

Kiddies set wave goes uncaught

Toward No Mans the options are live

Lugga sets solid

Party waves aplenty at Longy

Weather Situation
A high pressure ridge over New South Wales will remain through to next week with mostly light to moderate southeast to southwesterly winds along the coast. On Saturday a front will pass through the south bringing fresh to strong southwesterly winds to the far south.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Winds
North to northwesterly about 10 knots tending westerly 10 to 15 knots in the morning then turning south to southwesterly in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.
Sunday 24 June
Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers in the morning.
Monday 25 June
Winds
Southerly 10 to 15 knots becoming variable below 10 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 2 metres during the evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


Looking good Dee Why

Posted on June 22nd, 2018 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
Sunny skies at last and as foretold, we still have swell this morning. The point looks to be in the head plus range on sets and it’s a similar size up the beach. Surface conditions were clean and wind was lightly offshore. The MHL buoy was detecting 1.7 metres of 9.5 sec SSE (162°) as of 0600. The good news is that it should stick around at about that intensity all day. Tide is on the way to a 0.5 low at 0950. It’ll be back to a 1.6m high at 1615.
I sure hope the more optimistic models have it right about the front half of next week just quietly…
Have a great Friday one and get out there if you can!

Lots of folks on it this morning at the point

Up the beach it’s all happening

 

Weather Situation

A high pressure ridge over New South Wales will remain near stationary for the coming days, directing light to moderate southeast to southwesterly winds along the coast. On Saturday a front will slip to the south, freshening southwesterly winds along the southern half of the coast later on Saturday and Sunday.

Forecast for Friday until midnight

Winds
West to southwesterly about 10 knots becoming north to northwesterly in the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southeasterly 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Saturday 23 June

Winds
North to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots shifting southwesterly 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

Sunday 24 June

Winds
Southwesterly 10 to 15 knots turning southerly during the morning.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres inshore.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the afternoon.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers.

Smaller but surfable

Posted on June 21st, 2018 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Gloomy grey skies and the odd shower as Thursday got underway along the beaches. Swell energy levels have cogged down significantly since yesterday, but conditions are generally much cleaner too. People at the point and along the beach were getting waist to maybe shoulder high set waves when I checked for the first time at 0745.
At report writing time the wind was 6-7 kts from the WSW. Tide was dropping to a 0.47 m low at 0900. The 1.5 m high happens at 1520. Beachwatch ways the water should be much better today.
MHL’s Sydney buoy was showing 2.3 metres of 10-sec SSE (156°) swell. Beachwatch says water temp is 19C.
Outlook you ask? Well the Goat’s your man!
Go well with your day and keep on smilin’!

Set at Non Mans 0745

Set at Kiddies

Set at the point 0745

Up and riding

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the southwestern Tasman Sea with a ridge to the north is directing southwest to southeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Winds
South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending easterly about 10 knots in the afternoon then east to northeasterly in the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southeasterly 2 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 80% chance of showers.

Friday 22 June

Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northerly 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southeasterly 1.5 metres inshore, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Saturday 23 June

Winds
Northwesterly 10 to 15 knots turning west to southwesterly below 10 knots during the morning then becoming south to southwesterly during the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, tending easterly around 1 metre during the afternoon or evening.
Weather
Sunny.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on June 20th, 2018 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Wednesday 20 June 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Early forecast this week..

Why?..

Just because I can..

It feels like it’s been cold and wet and windy forever, and it’s only been a couple of days!  Surf conditions have been less than attractive for most people and, as I haven’t seen any whales at all for the last couple of days (previous days random counts 27, 15, 41..), I suspect they too are sheltering from the unpleasant ocean conditions, in protected corners or bays, before continuing their northward journey.

But with weather conditions generally improving over coming days there could be some surfable waves for the keen people, and whales might start to appear again.  The surf outlook looks like this:

Thursday: easing back from today, but still in the upper 1-2 metre range East South East

Friday: ditto (TG is a goat of few words)

Saturday: dittoish, maybe down slightly, but still with sets

Sunday: could be a little change in direction, with waves starting to come up in the 1-2 metre range from dead South at those places that are open to them

Monday: upper end of the 1-2 metre range at places open to dead South swell

Tuesday: ditto

Wednesday: ditto again.

Hope you have a good one.

TG

Up in the Air

MSLP Analysis for Wed Jun 20 00:00:00 2018 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Wed Jun 20 06:30:00 2018

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.889,151.216,7

Down in the Sea

Water temp is about 19, but there’s some colder water on its way…

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Wednesday

Summary
Shower or two.
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Light winds.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Thursday 21 June

Summary
Min 11
Max 18
Cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Areas of fog in the west in the early morning. Slight (20%) chance of a shower along the coastal fringe, near zero chance elsewhere. Light winds.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

 

Friday 22 June

Summary
Min 9
Max 18
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Fog and patches of light frost in the west in the early morning. Light winds.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Saturday 23 June

Summary
Min 8
Max 18
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Areas of morning fog in the west. Light winds.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Sunday 24 June

Summary
Min 7
Max 18
Possible late shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Light winds.

Monday 25 June

Summary
Min 7
Max 17
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds.

Tuesday 26 June

Summary
Min 8
Max 17
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 4 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers. Light winds.

Wednesday 27 June

Summary
Min 9
Max 17
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 4 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers. Light winds.


Rough and messy morning

Posted on June 20th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

15-20 kts of SSE wind ripping it to shreds this morning at Dee Why. As the pictures show, conditions are far from flat, but there’s definitely some swell. The MHL buoy was seeing 3.7 m of 10-second SSE (156°) swell under almost as much chop. The at times heavy rain last night resulted in Sydney water notifying Surfrider Foundation that partially treated discharge from Warriewood STP occured at 1945 yesterday evening and that flows were receiving wet water treatment. Beachwatch has hoisted the Pollution-likely warning for most of Sydney beaches. Given the woeful surf quality along with the prospect of encountering unsavoury microbes, makes it an easy day to advise taking a pass.

Tomorrow the Bureau tells us the wind will be S-SE again as the swell starts to fade back. Friday morning looks a more hopeful prospect as the wind decreases in intensity (but stays out of the easterly quarters). And it looks from the models as though surfable conditions should prevail through Sunday.

Have a great Wednesday everyone!

Typical wave at 0700

Bomb set fills in about 0715

Not a pretty picture up the beach

Weather Situation

A low pressure system near New Zealand with a trough to the northwest is slowly moving east and weakening and a high pressure system is moving towards Tasmania. As the high pressure system becomes the dominant feature over the next few days, winds over the waters will gradually ease.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 metre around midday.
Swell
Southerly 3 metres, tending southeasterly 2.5 to 3 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions in the early morning are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Thursday 21 June

Winds
South to southeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning then becoming variable about 10 knots in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southeasterly 2 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 50% chance of showers.

Friday 22 June

Winds
East to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots becoming variable about 10 knots during the morning.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southeasterly 1.5 metres inshore, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

It was a dark and stormy morning…

Posted on June 19th, 2018 in At large.

Hello Friends,

You’d want to be keen given the chilly, windy, rainy conditions this morning. There is swell and the wind was 15-20 kts at North Head when I grabbed the snaps. The Bower looked pretty clean but only waist to chest on sets. Plus there was the occasional lightning strike out at sea… a few bods were testing their immune systems up at Queensie where set waves were into the head plus range and surface conditions clean. Freshy was overwhelmed by the swell and no one was silly enough to be in the water. Likewise, Curly was big but somewhat chaotic and therefore empty. A couple of bodyboarders were having a go at the point, but the swell was lumpy and sectiony and again, not a terribly attractive proposition. Didn’t see anyone in the water from there north to Longy. Very small and clean at Collaroy and no takers.
The MHL buoy was showing 4.7 metres at 11 seconds from the SSE (158°) as of 0700. So the bulk of the energy is staying out to sea. Swell should be hitting its peak around now and then it’ll gradually drop back to below the 3 me mark tomorrow. As it fades slowly on Thursday, the models show the direction going more SE, so we should see solid conditions into the weekend. Wind predictions show the velocity dropping as it gets more westerly. Could be good….
Have a great Tuesday everyone!

Little waves at the Bower and swell looking bulky at sea

Water quality will be suss at Queensie for these folks

Pouring rain, freshy

Bomb set at Dee Why point

White rock making pretend rights

Weather Situation
A low pressure system near New Zealand with a trough to the northwest is slowly moving east and weakening and a high pressure system is moving towards Tasmania. The two systems are directing vigorous southwest to southeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast. Winds will ease later today as the high moves over the southwestern Tasman Sea extending a ridge along the coast.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Gale Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southerly 25 to 30 knots, reaching up to 35 knots inshore during the morning.
Seas
2.5 to 4 metres.
Swell
Southerly 3 to 4 metres, decreasing to 3 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Cloudy. 90% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Wednesday 20 June
Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots decreasing to about 10 knots in the late evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
Swell
Southeasterly 2.5 to 3 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions in the early morning are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Thursday 21 June
Winds
South to southeasterly about 10 knots tending south to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots during the morning then becoming variable about 10 knots during the day.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southeasterly 1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. Chance of showers.


Blowy old Monday

Posted on June 18th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
20-25 kts of WSW wind meant surface conditions were pretty clean at Dee Why. Unfortunately the swell is
only 7 seconds apart, so although it’s 2 metres or so out at sea and coming from the south, the wind is holding it offshore. Eden buoy was picking up 3 metres of dead south swell this morning and the Bureau tells us we can expect the energy to get here by this evening. The wind is going to belt along at 30-40 kts from the w to sw, and there’s a high likelihood of rain, but given the forecast, I reckon there could be some surfable stuff in the protected corners soon. I’ll keep an eye on it and if possible will update.
Tide was low at 0610 and will be back to a 1.45 m high at 1220.
Outlook is for the wind to be straight south by tomorrow and to stay that way through to Thursday. The models have the swell peaking tonight and then gradually decreasing across the coming week. The good news – apart from the wind – is that waves should stay in the surfable range into the weekend.
Have yourself a good Monday everyone!

Clean in the south corners, but not much energy

Weather Situation
A complex low pressure system in the southern Tasman Sea will slowly move east over the coming days. A south to southwesterly change will move up the coast from the south and strengthen on Monday. By the middle of the week, winds are expected to ease as the low moves closer to New Zealand. A high centred south of the Bight will move to the southern Tasman Sea on Tuesday and persist for the remainder of the week.

Forecast for Monday until midnight
Gale Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast
Winds
West to southwesterly 30 to 35 knots tending south to southwesterly 30 to 40 knots early in the morning.
Seas
3 to 4 metres.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres, increasing to 3 to 4 metres by early evening.
Weather
Cloudy. 95% chance of showers. Showers heavy at times offshore. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions in the evening are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Tuesday 19 June
Gale Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southerly 20 to 30 knots, reaching up to 35 knots early in the morning.
Seas
3 to 4 metres, decreasing to 2 to 3 metres around midday.
Swell
Southerly 3 to 4 metres, decreasing to 3 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Cloudy. 95% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Wednesday 20 June
Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots decreasing to about 10 knots during the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon or evening.
Swell
Southeasterly 2.5 to 3 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers.


 

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