Archive for August 2018

Postcards from the mid-north Coast

Posted on August 22nd, 2018 in At large.

Just some happy snaps to share from this morning…

Racecourse to himself just before noon

Some old geezer from Sydney at Racecourse

Deceptively pretty (they were small but fun on a mal)

Not too busy

Size but no takers

This was getting overwhelmed by the swell even as Crescent Head was too tiny to surf


Hopeful start at Crescent

Posted on August 22nd, 2018 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Cold but beautiful morning on the mid-north coast. Swell still mostly missing the point at Crescent, but there should be energy elsewhere, so going for a look around shortly with, I hope, pics to follow later.

Decision time


Postcards from Crescent Head

Posted on August 21st, 2018 in At large.

It may be 2.8 metres at 12 seconds out at sea, but coming from 160 degrees means that the swell is pushing past the point at Crescent Head. It’s quite annoying to see a solid overhead set at Pebbly Beach, but when it gets to the top of the point it just fats out and slides off to the north. Inside it’s right on the edge of too small to catch. The more exposed beaches have some size but the onshore is making a mess of the conditions. So it appears we’ve struck out so far. The Goat said he thought I was being a bit optimistic. Ah well, it’s still nice to be up here and who knows… maybe tomorrow we’ll find something. In the meantime, a few postcards…

Really tiny at Crescent this afternoon

Pebbly Beach seeing swell

Know this view?

Set arrives south side of Crescent head headland

Same set as the other pic, but this spilled wide and was totally unsurfable a few seconds later


Down but definitely not out

Posted on August 21st, 2018 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Just a couple of pics for now… check back this afternoon to see how my surfari has gone…

Lines marching toward No Mans

Fresh set looms on the horizon at 0625


It’s here

Posted on August 20th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

At 0500 the swell was 4 metres and coming from the S-SSE (160°) at 11 seconds apart.

More words and pics later, just wanted to get these up now…

Low tide [email protected], high [email protected]

Raw looking and no one out at 0710 No Mans

Definitely some size on offer at the point 0710

 

Weather Situation

A complex low pressure system lies over the southern Tasman Sea, while a high pressure system slowly moves across New South Wales. The combination of these two systems is generating vigorous south to southwesterly winds and a large southerly swell across New South Wales waters. Conditions are expected to ease later today as the low moves towards New Zealand and the high becomes dominant. A low pressure trough is forecast to clip the far south on Tuesday evening, with a more significant system to follow towards the weekend.

Forecast for Monday until midnight

Gale Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Southwesterly 25 to 35 knots, reaching 40 knots offshore in the morning. Winds decreasing to 20 to 30 knots in the middle of the day, then to 15 to 25 knots by evening.
Seas
3 to 5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 2 metres by early evening.
Swell
Southerly 4 to 5 metres, decreasing to 3 metres later in the evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of squally thunderstorms offshore early in the morning.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Tuesday 21 August

Strong Wind Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Westerly 20 to 25 knots increasing to 25 to 30 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres offshore.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Wednesday 22 August

Winds
West to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots turning southerly 20 to 25 knots during the day.
Seas
2 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Back to flat – for now

Posted on August 19th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

You might want to do all your sunny day activities this morning, because there’s a 70% chance of showers later. Unfortunately yesterday morning’s early bump in energy faded away rapidly and by dusk it was flat again. As you can see from the pics, it was still flat as of 0800. But by dusk the Bureau tells us things should be very different – as in 4-5 metres different.
Looking at the 0600 MHL data, it’s hard to see any sign of the big stuff currently chugging toward us. Sydney was showing a metre at 7 seconds from the S by SSW. Periods and size were pretty much around that mark up and down the coast, although Batemans Bay was showing some 11-sec stuff in the metre range from the SSE.
Given the Bureau’s call, this is definitely a day to keep an eye on things though. Your loyal correspondent will endeavour to do so and I’ll post an update if I see any evidence of the expected dramatic change. FWIW, most of the models are projecting the swell to really start filling in after dark.

And Monday looks pretty solid for south magnets as we get a combo of 3+ metre south swell in the 12 sec range plus gale force SW wind.

Tide was low at 0820 and is currently coming into a 1.47 m high at 1500. Tomorrow morning’s first tide will be a low at 0915 with a 1.48 m high at 1600.

According to all the models, Monday will be the peak, Tuesday will see smaller but still shoulder to head plus, then it fades a bit more across Weds and Thurs – but with any luck it’ll be quite surfable (I’m guessing waist to chest with plusses dropping into the knee to waist range Friday morning.)

Have a great Sunday, and stop by again later!

 

Weather Situation

A cold front is clearing the far north coast this morning whilst a complex low pressure system has formed over the Tasman Sea. This low is combining with a high pressure system over the Bight to produce fresh to strong west to southwesterly winds. A vigorous south to southwesterly change is expected reach southern parts of the coast this afternoon and evening, and northern parts early tomorrow, as the low pressure system remains over the central Tasman Sea and the high extends its ridge across the state. Winds are forecast to ease from late Monday as the low moves towards New Zealand and the high drifts across the state.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight

Gale Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Westerly 25 to 30 knots becoming south to southwesterly 30 to 40 knots in the evening.
Seas
2 to 4 metres.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the afternoon, then increasing to 4 to 5 metres later in the evening.
Weather
Sunny morning. 70% chance of showers and the chance of a thunderstorm this afternoon and evening.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions in the evening are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Monday 20 August

Gale Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Southwesterly 30 to 40 knots decreasing to 20 to 30 knots in the middle of the day then turning westerly 15 to 20 knots in the late evening.
Seas
3 to 5 metres, decreasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres by early evening.
Swell
Southerly 4 to 5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers and the chance of a thunderstorm offshore in the morning.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Tuesday 21 August

Winds
Westerly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 to 2.5 metres offshore during the evening.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

 


Hooray! Waves to be found

Posted on August 18th, 2018 in At large.

Hello Friends,
Good news, against expectations, we have little waves at magnet spots this morning. It’s not very consistent, but when the sets turn up, the wave faces are into the chest to shoulder high range. That said, there were long stretches at less optimally aligned beaches (looking at you south Narra) that were near flat. The 0500 data from the MHL buoy revealed 1.3 metres of 11-second SSE (158°) swell. At 0700 wind was out of the NNW at 7-9 kts. This morning’s 0.5 m low tide was at 0730 and it’ll be back to a 1.47 m high at 1400.
According to the marine forecast, this morning’s waves will fade pretty quickly to around a metre, so better to get in ASAP.
Wind should pick up into the 15-20 kt range from the NW.
Tomorrow we’re in for fierce offshores. At the same time a solid south pulse should start making itself felt and come Monday – yikes! The Bureau says 4-5 metres south with strong S-SW wind. From a quick glance at the models, the pulse should peak Monday and fade gradually toward midweek, but with luck there should be waves of some sort or other.
Have a top old Saturday and keep on smilin’!

Looking the goods at Longy 0640


 

No Mans lines at 0640


 

Nothing happening at the point


 

Too tiny at Gardens


 

Hullo Mr Sun


 

South Narra nup


 

Crew chasing sets at Northy

 

Weather Situation

A ridge of high pressure is extending across New South Wales from the west, accompanied by light to moderate winds in most coastal areas. Westerly winds will increase in southern and central parts today as the next cold front moves through the region, shifting southwesterly in its wake on Sunday. Following this, a deep low is forecast to develop over the central Tasman Sea, reinforcing a vigorous south to southwesterly flow along the entire coast.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Northwesterly 15 to 20 knots tending westerly 20 to 25 knots in the evening. Winds reaching up to 30 knots offshore in the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Sunday 19 August

Gale Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Westerly 25 to 30 knots turning southwesterly 20 to 30 knots in the middle of the day. Winds reaching up to 35 knots offshore in the late evening.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 2 metres, increasing to 3 to 5 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Mostly sunny morning. 50% chance of showers in the late afternoon and evening.

Monday 20 August

Winds
South to southwesterly 25 to 40 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots during the evening.
Seas
2 to 4 metres, decreasing below 2.5 metres during the evening.
Swell
Southerly 4 to 5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers

When will it come up

Posted on August 17th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Another sunny morning with light westerly winds but no real sign of surf at Dee Why. There was a tiny line coming in, so one can dream of improvement. The Bureau says the swell should come up offshore. So, will that improve our prospects later today? I’m ever hopeful, but realistically I’ll be happy if we see anything surfable today.

Tide was low at 0640 and is now coming to a 1.5 m high at 1305.

Last night the ever reliable Goat rolled out his predictions for the week ahead, so as always, I commend his wisdom to you.

Have a great Friday everybody!

If only it was a bit bigger…

Tiny wave on the beach 

 

Weather Situation

A ridge of high pressure is extending across New South Wales from the west, accompanied by light to moderate winds in most coastal areas. Westerly winds will increase in southern and central parts during Saturday as the next cold front affects the region, shifting southwesterly in its wake on Sunday. Following this, a deep low is forecast to develop over the central Tasman Sea, reinforcing a vigorous south to southwesterly flow along the entire coast.

Forecast for Friday until midnight

Winds
Westerly 15 to 20 knots, reaching 25 knots offshore in the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Sunny.

Saturday 18 August

Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast

Winds
West to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots turning northwesterly 15 to 25 knots before dawn then tending westerly 20 to 30 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Sunday 19 August

Winds
Westerly 20 to 30 knots tending southwesterly 25 to 35 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the afternoon or evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on August 16th, 2018 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf Forecast issued Thursday 16 August 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Couple of interesting features this week..

1 looks like there might be some waves on the horizon for next week… outta control at first, naturally, but it should settle down a bit after that, and

2 check out the Bureau’s cool new sea temp and current graphics below… so you can tell all the kids you saw it here first 🙂

Friday: not much happening, if anything at all

Saturday: ditto

Sunday: SSW wind to start ruffling up the surface and blow up some white water

Monday: in the 2ish – 3ish range at dead South spots, with SW wind to chop it up at first, then light

Tuesday:  a bit more consistent… down a little in the 2-3 metre range South East and with offshore wind

Wednesday: down into the 1-2 metre rnage dead South places

Thursday: around 1 metre or so dead South.

Have fun… Stay cool.. Stay warm.. Stay safe.

TG

Up in the Sky

A little wisp of a cloud over Oz, trailing off to the Land of the Long White Cloud…

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Aug 16 08:30:00 2018

MSLP Analysis for Thu Aug 16 06:00:00 2018 AUTC

Winds

Westerlies, westlerlies and …hmmm some more westerlies

https://www.windy.com/

Down in the Sea

Water temp is a chilly 16-17…

TG is always on the lookout for new ways to keep you entertained… and looky here.. cool new graphics from the Bureau, showing temperature and currents.  Now you can see how the East Coast Current behaves 🙂

Up on the web, pretty much as of todayish …So you can say you saw it here first (as you always have 🙂 (apart from on the BoM website of course if you looked there.)

image

“From mid-August 2018, the Bureau will be making improvements to the ocean forecast map viewer (Sea temperatures and Currents pages) that will greatly improve readability and provide detailed forecasts using higher resolution regional tiles.”

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2018-2019.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Mostly clear.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Clear. Winds southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 10:10 am to 1:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]

Friday 17 August

Summary
Min 8
Max 20
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Areas of morning frost in the outer west. Light winds becoming westerly 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the evening.

Fire Danger – High

Sun protection recommended from 10:20 am to 1:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]

 

Saturday 18 August

Summary
Min 8
Max 22
Becoming windy. Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Areas of frost in the outer west in the early morning. Winds northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h increasing to 25 to 35 km/h in the morning then turning westerly 25 to 40 km/h in the early afternoon.

Sun protection recommended from 10:10 am to 1:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]

Sunday 19 August

Summary
Min 9
Max 17
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds westerly 25 to 35 km/h turning southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 10:40 am to 1:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Monday 20 August

Summary
Min 8
Max 17
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h becoming light during the afternoon then becoming westerly 15 to 20 km/h during the evening.

Tuesday 21 August

Summary
Min 7
Max 19
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds westerly 20 to 30 km/h.

Wednesday 22 August

Summary
Min 7
Max 20
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds westerly 15 to 25 km/h shifting south to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning.

Thursday 23 August

Summary
Min 7
Max 21
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.


Another micro day

Posted on August 16th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Only a faint zephyr stirring the ocean surface at Dee Why as the sun came over the horizon this morning. Skies are clear and the air temp was comparatively mild. But, as the pictures show, there is no swell. The MHL Sydney buoy hasn’t checked in since yesterday evening, but looking at the data from other stations, I’d guess there’s maybe half a metre from the S-SSE at 13-14 seconds.

If you’re interested, Tide was low at 05:55 and will be back to a 1.53 m high at 1215.

Weather should be sunny all day and the wind will be from the SW. Water is about 16°C.

The Goat will be along later with his week-ahead outlook, so I’ll be keen to see his take on our prospects for a memorable Monday….

Have a top Thursday!

Nice morning for a paddle on the SUP

Little tiny trickle of a line at 0650

Weather Situation

Vigorous west to northwest winds ahead of a cold front are expected to ease today and shift south to southwesterly as the front clears the northeast corner of New South Wales and a high pressure ridge builds in its wake. Another strong cold front looks set to arrive on the weekend.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Winds
South to southwesterly 15 to 25 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 metre by early evening.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by early evening.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Friday 17 August

Winds
West to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Saturday 18 August

Winds
Northwesterly 15 to 20 knots tending westerly 20 to 30 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

 


 

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