Archive for October 2018

Another grey and blustery one

Posted on October 21st, 2018 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

15-20 kts of SSW wind and a shade under 2 metres of 6-sec S-SSW bump showing at North Head and out at sea. Conditions at Dee Why, unsurprisingly, looked weak, small and messy. I couldn’t see anyone in the water either.

A day for doing other things I’d say because it’s unlikely there’ll be any positive change to conditions according to the Bureau.

Prospects for tomorrow don’t look too much better, although the weather could be a little nicer in the afternoon. I’m not seeing much of interest for the rrest of the week in this morning’s batch of swell models. Tuesday morning looks about the best prospect right now thanks to a call for brief moderation in the wind. But the waves are likely to be short period and therefore gutless.

Your correspondent will be heading off to the Northern hemisphere again from Thursday. So, expect the usual stream of postcards from Cali and thoughts on what the models show for Sydney. If the iron law of ‘you really missed it’ holds, the waves will get better in Sydney while I’m away. 🙂

Go well with your Sunday!

 

No takers at Dee Why at 0810

 

No Mans no takers

Weather Situation

A slow-moving high pressure system over the Tasman Sea is directing a humid northeasterly airstream over the New South Wales coast, while a trough with an associated southerly change extends northwards. The trough is expected to slow and stagnate on the lower Mid North coast today before weakening on Monday with a return to northeasterlies along the whole coast. The next southerly change is expected later on Tuesday in the south.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots inshore during the morning and early afternoon. Winds decreasing to about 10 knots in the late evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
1st Swell
Northeasterly 1.5 metres, tending easterly 1.5 metres around midday.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 60% chance of showers.

Monday 22 October

Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the middle of the day. Winds reaching up to 20 knots inshore in the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre, reaching up to 1.5 metres in the evening.
1st Swell
Easterly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Tuesday 23 October

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

Waves for the keen early

Posted on October 20th, 2018 in At large.

Hello Friends,
Lumpy, close-together NE wind bump piling in to the magnets. Set wave faces were into the shoulder plus range, but it was pretty chaotic looking even at the peak spots. Lots of opportunity to get caught behind the section and the short period means they’re coming at you pretty relentlessly. The MHL data from 0400 showed 1.9 metres of 7-second stuff spread across the SE to NE quarters. Wind was light 8-9 kts from the NNE and tide hit a 1.3 m high at 0620. We’re going to a summery high of 27 with 15-25 mm of rain developing later. Water’s sitting on 18.
Tomorrow promises more rain plus strong southerly wind, so although the swell should push up, I’m not overly hopeful about the prospects for water quality or surface conditions on what could be a gloomy day.
The rest of the week is looking so-so to me. Monday’s set to be rainy again (water quality could be ordinary by then) and thereafter, well, I don’t see much, but as the Goat says, there should be something scrappy to mess with if you’re keen.
Have a great Saturday one and all!

No Mans

 

Longy

 

Longy

 

Decision maker

 

Carparks

 

North Narrabeen

 

North Narrabeen

 

Weather Situation

A slow-moving high pressure system over the Tasman Sea is directing a humid northeasterly airstream over the New South Wales coast. During the day, a trough approaching from the west is expected to bring a southerly change to the south, reaching the central coastal area this evening. The trough is expected to slow and stagnate on the lower Mid North coast on Sunday before weakening on Monday with a return to northeasterlies along the whole coast. The next southerly change is expected later Tuesday in the south.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 30 knots offshore in the late evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers. A thunderstorm likely during this afternoon and evening, possibly severe.

Sunday 21 October

Strong Wind Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast

Winds
A southerly 20 to 30 knots change extending throughout in the morning, then tending east to southeast 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
1st Swell
South to southwesterly below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
East to northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
Weather
Cloudy. 95% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning.

Monday 22 October

Winds
East to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots becoming variable about 10 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the afternoon or evening.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Cloudy. 80% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.

Foggy Friday first up

Posted on October 19th, 2018 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Visibility from the RealSurf wheelhouse was down to about 500m thanks to the fog. Wind was coming faintly from the north and the MHL buoy was reporting 1.8 m of 8-sec from the SE. Had to run an errand first up, so I grabbed the camera and took a few shots of the low key conditions. Collaroy was a gutless and tiny mess. At least it was sort of surfable at Longy, where there was a reasonable crowd waiting patiently for the occasional waist high bump. Conditions were similar but more lightly populated toward No Mans, while Dee Why looked to be on the small end and really weak.

Tide is currently dropping to a moderate 0.7m  low at 1110. By the time it’s back to the high at 1730, the NE’r should be at full force.

The Goat has examined the entrails and cogitated upon our prospects for the week ahead, so, as always I commend his wisdom to you.

Have a great Fluro Friday!

Grabbing a little trim at Longy

 

The hopeful ones. Longy

 

No Mans set

 

Headland in the fog

 

New Holland Honeyeater (Phylidonyris novahollandiae) getting the territory organised at Longy

 

Collaroy dreck

 

Soft bumps at Kiddies

 

Weather Situation

A strong high pressure system over the Tasman Sea will slowly move towards New Zealand over the coming days, generating east to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast. A weak southerly change is expected along the south coast during today, before winds return back to the northeast later. A second southerly change is forecast to move up southern and central parts of the coast on Saturday before stalling on Sunday.

Forecast for Friday until midnight

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots offshore early in the morning and again in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres by early evening.
Swell
Northeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres by early evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Saturday 20 October

Winds
Northerly 15 to 25 knots turning northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the middle of the day, ahead of a southerly change 10 to 15 knots inshore in the late evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres inshore, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore.
Weather
Mostly sunny morning. 60% chance of showers in the late afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.

Sunday 21 October

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots turning easterly 10 to 15 knots during the morning.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Northeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy. 95% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on October 18th, 2018 in Goat's Forecast, Surf Reports.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 18 October 2018:

Seven day outlook for Sydney:

How about this great weather???  Great if you’re a farmer, a keen gardener, or just want your dam levels to keep filling up so you can have a drink of water and a wash, and your food ( whether you’re vegetarian, or carnivourous, or omnivourous) to keep coming to wherever you get it.  And you’re gonna get wet anyway going for a surf so what’s a few more drops on you before you get to the water’s edge…

Saw a few nice looking waves today before dark and there should be waves all week, suitable for Nor East spots.  But be prepared to have a few more pre-surf showers if you want to have a surf in the coming week…  Air temp should be warmer and who knows with the water temp…

Surf outlook:

Friday: up a little from today in the 1-2 metre range East North East

Saturday: down a little in the 1-2 metre rnage East North east

Sunday: dittoish but southerly wind affected, but not enough to completely stop the East North East swell

Monday: down a little in the 1-2 metre range East North East

Tuesday: similar

Wednesday: ditto

Thursday: starting to come up at dead South places in the 1-2 metre range.

Have a good one.

TG

Up in the Sky

MSLP Analysis for Thu Oct 18 00:00:00 2018 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Oct 18 02:30:00 2018

Winds

https://www.windy.com/?-33.913,151.103,5

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 18-19

Warmer water is a little offshore for the moment

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2018-2019.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Max 24
Showers increasing. Possible afternoon storm.
Possible rainfall: 2 to 10 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers, with the chance of a storm, most likely this afternoon and evening. Winds north to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the late evening.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 8 [Very High]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon Location Min Max
Showers increasing. Possible afternoon storm. Sydney 24
Showers increasing. Possible afternoon storm. Penrith 27
Showers increasing. Possible afternoon storm. Liverpool 25
Showers increasing. Possible afternoon storm. Terrey Hills 23
Showers increasing. Possible afternoon storm. Richmond 27
Showers increasing. Possible afternoon storm. Parramatta 25
Showers increasing. Possible afternoon storm. Campbelltown 26
Showers increasing. Possible afternoon storm. Bondi 22

 

Friday 19 October

Summary
Min 17
Max 26
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light before dawn then becoming north to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 8 [Very High]

Saturday 20 October

Summary
Min 17
Max 27
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 2 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and early evening. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 8 [Very High]

Sunday 21 October

Summary
Min 16
Max 21
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 5 to 15 mm
Chance of any rain: 90% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon. Winds southerly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light during the morning.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 9 [Very High]

Monday 22 October

Summary
Min 16
Max 24
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. Light winds.

Tuesday 23 October

Summary
Min 16
Max 28
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 24 October

Summary
Min 17
Max 21
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 4 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers, most likely during the morning. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds southerly 20 to 30 km/h turning southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

 


Murky and minor

Posted on October 18th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Wind was coming lightly from the NNE at 0730 while skies were heavily overcast. We can expect the wind to pick up later and by this afternoon it should be 15-20 kts. At 0500 the MHL buoy off Sydney was seeing 2 metre of 9-sec coming from both the NE and SSE. Unfortunately, it didn’t seem to be adding up to much at Dee Why when I grabbed the snaps around 0720. I couldn’t see anyone in the water, which isn’t surprising given the weak, small and confused conditions.

The Bureau says it’ll get to a summery 24° and there’s a 90% chance of rainfall. Interestingly, the UV levels are creeping up and despite the cloud, it’ll be 8 (very high) on the scale. Ocean’s still 18C according to beachwatch – which also tells us apart from the lagoon exits at Northy, Long Reef and Curl Curl, water quality at all beaches is okay.

Being Thursday, I shall await the Goat’s prognostications with interest. From my reading of the runes, it looks like we’re near the peak of the energy levels for the next week…

Have a great day everyone!

Small and weak looking at Dee Why point

 

Nothing much evident at No Mans

Weather Situation

A strong high pressure system over the Tasman Sea will slowly move towards New Zealand over the coming days, generating east to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast. A weak southerly change is expected along the south coast early Friday, before winds return back to the northeast late Friday. A second southerly change is forecast to move up southern and central parts of the coast on the weekend.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots during the day.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres inshore, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore.
Weather
Cloudy. 80% chance of showers during the day time. The chance of thunderstorms during the day time.

Friday 19 October

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots offshore in the late evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Northeasterly 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the morning, then decreasing to 1.5 metres by early evening.
Weather
Cloud clearing.

Saturday 20 October

Winds
Northerly 15 to 25 knots turning northeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the day.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1 to 2 metres offshore.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, tending easterly 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.

Dull, grey but not flat

Posted on October 17th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Steady 8-15 kts of NNE wind under heavily overcast skies as Wednesday gets into gear. As the pictures show, conditions are not overly interesting at the Dee Why end of the beach. Might be a bit more interesting up at Longy where it’s more protected from the wind. At 0400 the MHL buoy was showing most energy coming from the east. It was about 2.5 metres at around 9 seconds. As with yesterday, we have a mix of south around to NNE swells.

The NE’r is expected to get up to 20-25 kts and the swell should continue to push along at about the current intensity. We can expect a shower or two across the day. Tide is low at 0845 and the high will be along at 1520. According to Beachwatch, ocean temp is sitting on 18C.

Outlook is for the wind to stay N-NE at about the current intensity through Friday. Saturday looks like being showery and NE as well, but there might be a window of opportunity for the early session. However, the models show the swell decreasing slightly but staying in the surfable range. Sunday should see more rainfall, but we’re expected to have SW wind early, so again, there may be another shot at something passable on Sunday morning – question is, will there be much swell energy left?

Have a top old Wednesday and get up to some good where you can!

No takers at the point 0720

 

Small to marginal looking at No Mans

Weather Situation

A strong high pressure system over the Tasman Sea near New Zealand will remain almost stationary for the coming days, generating southeast to northeasterly winds. Strong northeast winds are expected along the southern coast today with a low pressure trough over central New South Wales.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Winds
Northeasterly 20 to 25 knots.
Seas
2 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 2 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.

Thursday 18 October

Winds
Northeasterly 20 to 25 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.

Friday 19 October

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 2 metres.
Weather
The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning. Mostly sunny afternoon.

Another messy morning with size

Posted on October 16th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

No lack of energy this morning, but Dee Why’s a complete mess and it didn’t look like anyone was in the water. The MHL’s directional spectrum graphic for 0400 was showing 3 metres of 11 sec from dead north plus a lot of stuff from the SSE (154°) – a perfect recipe for the chaotic conditions captured in the pictures. Not surprisingly given the rain, the water also looks foul (Beachwatch had pollution possible warnings at most beaches yesterday and there’s a 90% chance of more showers today).

The wind was 6-7 kts from the NE at 0700 but looking at the clouds scudding overhead, the prediction of it ramping up to 15-20 kts is entirely plausible. And the NE’r is going to keep hammering us through Thursday. Friday should see it go more NW-NE in the morning before again going NE in the afternoon.

Most of the models show the swell heights gradually drifting down as we get into the weekend and next week looks small but not unsurfably so.

Have a great day everyone!

 

Lots of energy – but chaotic

 

Too crazy to surf at 0700

 

No Mans lines

Weather Situation

A strong high pressure system over the Tasman Sea will remain near stationary for the coming days, generating southeast to northeasterly winds. Meanwhile, a deep coastal trough along the southern Queensland and northern New South Wales coast is generating strong winds in the far north. This coastal trough is expected move further offshore today while the high pressure system remains over the Tasman Sea. Strong northeast winds area expected to develop about the far south today as another trough moves over central New South Wales.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots in the late evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 2 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Wednesday 17 October

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots early in the morning and again in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres.
1st Swell
Northeasterly 1.5 to 2.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers.

Thursday 18 October

Winds
Northeasterly 20 to 25 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres.
1st Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres, tending northeasterly around 1 metre during the afternoon or evening.
2nd Swell
South to southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 60% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.

Lightly onshore early

Posted on October 15th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Definitely activity along the beaches, but the quality? Not so much. Couldn’t see anyone in the water at Dee Why when I grabbed the snaps a little after 0715. It looks weak, messy and fat. Plus there’s more rain in the mix, so water quality is unlikely to improve.
The MHL data showed 2.2 m of 9 second stuff from the SSE and the NE.
Tide was low at 0650 and is now coming into a 1.5 m high at 1320.There’s a 90% chance of rain and the wind will pick up to 20-25 kts from the NE. The NE swell comnponent should pick up too, leading to the Bureau warning of large and powerful surf conditions.
Outlook is for the NE regime to continue through Wednesday as the combo NE-S swells fluctuate around in the 1-2 metre range. The swell models tell us to expect the wind situation to last through Thursday before finally backing off on Friday morning.
So hang in there, it’ll get better.
Have a top Monday!

City pokes above the fog at 0720

 

Lion Island fog peekaboo

 

No Mans at 0715

 

Flabby but not flat

Weather Situation

A strong high pressure system over the Tasman Sea will remain near stationary for the coming days, generating southeast to northeasterly winds. Meanwhile, a coastal trough is deepening along the southern Queensland and northern New South Wales coast, generating strong to gale force winds in the far north. This coastal trough is expected move further offshore today while the high pressure system remains over the Tasman Sea.

Forecast for Monday until midnight

Winds
Northeasterly 20 to 25 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
1st Swell
Easterly 1.5 to 2 metres, tending northeasterly 2 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Tuesday 16 October

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots offshore early in the morning and again in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
1st Swell
Northeasterly 1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
2nd Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Wednesday 17 October

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 2 metres.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 2 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.

Onshore and that’s all

Posted on October 14th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Straight onshore from the east at 15-20 kts on a mild, cloudy and showery Sunday morning. As the pictures show, it’s extremely junky but not flat. Set faces are definitely shoulder plus. The latest MHL data tells us that as of 0600 we had 2.4 metres of 13 second swell from the ESE (145°). Water looked pretty ordinary and Beachwatch warns that pollution is possible at most beaches this morning. Ocean temp is sitting on 18C.
The Bureau says we’re in for three days of NE wind and they’ve posted warnings about the surf conditions being dangerous for rock fishers and such for today and tomorrow.
According to some of the swell models, there could be a window of opportunity Wednesday and Thursday morning as the swell persists and the wind backs off.
Here’s hoping!

The point at 0810 Sunday morning

 

No one in the water from Kiddeis to Longy

 

Curly suitable only for beach walking

 

Junkriders on it at the point 0800

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea will remain near stationary for the coming days, generating east to northeasterly winds. Meanwhile, a coastal trough is deepening along the southern Queensland and northern New South Wales coast today, strengthening winds in the north. From Monday, north to northeasterly winds are expected as a second trough moves through the state’s west and the high pressure system remains over the Tasman Sea.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight

Winds
East to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1.5 metres.
1st Swell
East to southeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres.
2nd Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers.
Caution
Surf conditions may be more powerful than they appear and are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Monday 15 October

Strong Wind Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Northeasterly 20 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots offshore in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
1st Swell
East to northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres inshore, increasing to 1 to 2 metres offshore.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 metres around midday.
Weather
Cloudy. 80% chance of showers.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Tuesday 16 October

Winds
Northeasterly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
2 to 2.5 metres.
1st Swell
Northeasterly 2 to 2.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.

Options early on Saturday

Posted on October 13th, 2018 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Wind was light and offshore at daybreak and there were little waves too. Size was into the shoulder plus range on the bigger ones, but it seemed to be pretty inconsistent and quality overall was so-so – which is probably why there were very few in the water. Skies were mostly cloudy.

The wind was coming back around to the east by 0700, and the Bureau tells us it’ll build to 15-25 kts before later. If you weren’t back in the carpark by 0800, you missed the best of it I’d say.  FWIW, nexdt tide is a high just before noon.

As of 0400 the MHL buoy was registering 2 metres from the S-SSE at 9 seconds. The Bureau tells us to expect some additional SE component to start mixing in later, causing them to raise a warning about possibly being more powerful than they first appear. Oh, and there’s a 90 percent chance of more showers.

Outlook is for the swell to hold, and maybe even build a little over the next 48 hours. While the wind isn’t expected to back off, it’s predicted to go around to the NE – which could open up a few possibilities in north corners…

The long range models are also looking hopeful for sizable (but wind affected) conditions mid to late week…

Have yourself a great Saturday everyone!

 

Daybreak wanderer at Long Reef

 

Nothing much at Butterbox

 

You wait for these

 

Couldn’t quite get into this one near Longy at 0635

 

Near the pole

 

Possibility at Kiddies 0630

 

Northy a maybe 0625

 

Gardens empty

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea will remain near stationary for the coming days, generating east to northeasterly winds. Meanwhile a coastal trough is expected to deepen along the southern Queensland and northern New South Wales coast during the weekend, strengthening winds in the north. From Monday, north to northeasterly winds are expected as a cold front moves over the state’s west and the high pressure system remains over the Tasman Sea.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Winds
Easterly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2.5 metres.
2nd Swell
East to southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, reaching up to 2 metres in the evening.
Weather
Cloudy. 90% chance of showers.
Caution
Surf conditions may be more powerful than they appear and are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Sunday 14 October

Winds
East to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres inshore, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore.
2nd Swell
East to southeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 70% chance of showers.
Caution
Surf conditions may be more powerful than they appear and are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Monday 15 October

Winds
Northeasterly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
1st Swell
Easterly 1 to 2 metres, tending northeasterly 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Southerly 1 to 2 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 80% chance of showers.