Archive for November 2018

Postcards from Cali: we’re tiny too

Posted on November 6th, 2018 in At large.

Hello Friends,
Looks like another small day in Sydney with wind out of the NW early and not much swell (at 0600 it was less than a metre from the south at 12 seconds or so). No surf today would be my guess.
Outlook is for smaller again tomorrow ahead of a late south change. The change should push up some junky wind blown stuff on Wednesday – along with 30-50mm of rain. So not the most exciting outlook I’m afraid. The longer range models don’t look the best for Sydney either. If they’ve called it right, there will be waves in the chest high range at exposed spots, but the prospect is for it to be wind affected and short period.
And here in Santa Barbara you’d be hard pressed to find anything catchable above the knee high mark. It’s the same all the way up to Santa Cruz and down to around LA. South of there in southern Orange and northern San Diego county, there seem to be a few slightly better options. But not by much. Hoping for a southern hemisphere swell next week…
Have a great Tuesday everyone!

Looks like it could be interesting on a much bigger day

Shorey chasing swimmers

Santa Barbara town spot, one person out. Sadly this wave shutdown a second later.

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the northern Tasman Sea is directing generally northerly winds along the New South Wales coast. A trough, currently in the state’s west, is expected to bring a change to the southern coast later today, followed by a stronger southerly surge as a cold front sweeps across the region. This front is forecast to affect most waters on Wednesday, reaching the northern border early Thursday. Behind this, a new high pressure system is expected to approach from the west, and should become the dominant weather feature for several days thereafter.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Northerly 15 to 20 knots.
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Southerly below 1 metre.
Cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm this evening.
Wednesday 7 November
Northerly 15 to 25 knots shifting southerly 20 to 25 knots in the late afternoon.
1 to 2 metres.
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Cloudy. 95% chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon.
Thursday 8 November
Southerly 20 to 30 knots.
2 to 3 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the morning.
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers.

Postcards from Cali: really small up and down the coast

Posted on November 5th, 2018 in Surf Reports.

Hello Friends,
Lookin’ warm and tiny for you in Sydney. Light ENE wind at midday, so at least the surface conditions for the tiny south bump should be ok…
The models don’t look terribly interesting for Sydney, but at least there should be some little something at exposed spots that like NE wind fluff.
Meanwhile here in Cali, we have beautiful weather but next to nothing in the way of waves from Santa Cruz to San Diego. That said, when I pulled a snap of the surfline cam for lower Trestles, there was a sweet looking set. Such an amazing spot – even when it’s tiny, it’s good.
Have a great Monday!

Lower Trestles: even on a tiny day looking super fun on sets

Pleasure Point, Santa Cruz longboards only

Weather Situation
Winds will gradually become northeast to northwesterly everywhere along the coast from today as a high pressure system over the northeastern Tasman Sea becomes the dominant feature and a front approaches the southeast of the continent. This front will bring a vigorous southerly change to southern parts of the coast from late Tuesday, moving north along the coast on Wednesday.

Forecast for Monday until midnight
Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the late afternoon then tending northerly in the evening.
Below 1 metre, increasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Partly cloudy.
Tuesday 6 November
North to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots turning east to northeasterly below 10 knots in the late morning then tending northerly 10 to 15 knots in the evening. Winds reaching up to 20 knots in the late evening.
Around 1 metre, decreasing below 1 metre around midday.
Southerly around 1 metre.


Posted on November 5th, 2018 in At large.

A beautiful sunny day two streets back from the beach.  On the beach cool and foggy! still at 11.30.  Starting to clear a bit at some but will need the wind to get stronger before it all goes and that’ll help the waves – not.

If you can find a place in the sun or if you don’t care there are waves around – roughly 1- 1+ metres at places.

Postcard from Cali. Tinytown bumps

Posted on November 4th, 2018 in At large.

Quick postcard for Sunday… been inland, so no Internet until today. Really small here again. Models not showing much of anything until maybe next.

Just barely there at C-street late evening Sat

Hot today

Posted on November 2nd, 2018 in At large.

Lovely morning.. currently 29 but the NW breeze is bringing that back to a comfortable 24.  Forecast 37 later.

Right now surf is very small but there are a few takers for the 1 metre NE swell.

Low tide still to come at around 10.40.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on November 1st, 2018 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 1 November 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

It’s gunna be hot…it’s gunna be hot..

So best to be where it’s not… where it’s not!

And where might that be?

In the water of course.  With a 37 degree max forecast – all of a sudden – for tomorrow, who cares if  the ocean surface is not going to be moving around much..

Ok Ok you might get lucky at the right tide,  the right banks, with the right equipment and bag a little wave as a bonus.

Friday: about 1 metre or so North East

Saturday: a little more say 1 -1 + metre North East, until an early afternoon SE change, as expected by the BoM

Sunday: maybe around 1 metre at places that get dead South swell

Monday: ditto

Tuesday: smaller East North East

Wednesday: about 1 metre North East

Thursday: coming up at dead South spots.. 1-2 , 2-3 metres

Have a good one.  Stay cool.


Up in the Air

MSLP Analysis for Thu Nov  1 06:00:00 2018 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Nov  1 09:30:00 2018


Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 19-21… with warmer and cooler patches.




Weather from the Bureau