Archive for December 2018

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on December 13th, 2018 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 13 December 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Sydney’s about to cop a heap of rain as I put hoof to keyboard and there’s thunder and lightning coming too..  Don’t run around like a headless chook..get your washing in! Don’t play tennis.  Get inside and stay inside for about half an hour or so. Don’t go out if there’s Thunder about.

Nasty Severe TC Owen way up north but the Bureau expects it to be Ex TC Owen by late Saturday and make a lot of rain up north.

Outlook for the weekend looks like good rainfall here, and for the surf? well

Friday: in the 1-2 metre range North East

Saturday: ditto East North East

Sunday: up a bit into the 2, 2+ maybe 3 metre area East North East

Monday: down into the 1-2 metre range East North East

Tuesday: down again to around 1 metre or so North East

Wednesday: coming up into the 1-2 metre range at dead South places

Thursday: in the 1-2 metre range East South East

RIP Scott Dillon.. passed away at 90.  Bought a few boards off him in my younger days.  Once watched him and Dave Jackman go out at North Steyne to ride the Queenscliff Bombie.  No one else in the water.  I gave them no chance of even getting out through the monster surf. The sea seemed to make a gentle winding passageway as they casually paddled between giant waves.  You couldn’t see them the waves were so big and I was expecting to see their gun boards washed end over end to shore. Then Scott caught a monster all the way to shore and just strolled up the beach  It was absolutely amazing to watch the whole thing It was like it was stage managed for them.

Pretty to watch.

TG.

Nice story on him here

https://www.pacificlongboarder.com/news/RIP-Scott-Dillon/?siteregion=AU

Up in the Sky

 

MSLP Analysis for Thu Dec 13 06:00:00 2018 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Dec 13 07:30:00 2018

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.889,151.216,7,i:pressure

 

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 21

image

Tide

https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2018-2019.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Friday 14 December

Summary
Min 21
Max 27
Rain increasing.
Possible rainfall: 8 to 20 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Patchy fog in the early morning. High (80%) chance of rain, most likely in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon. Winds east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h tending east to southeasterly in the evening then tending east to northeasterly in the late evening.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Saturday 15 December

Summary
Min 20
Max 27
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and early evening. Winds northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light before dawn then becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the early afternoon.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Sunday 16 December

Summary
Min 21
Max 29
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon. Winds north to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Monday 17 December

Summary
Min 21
Max 29
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny morning. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

Tuesday 18 December

Summary
Min 21
Max 26
Cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 19 December

Summary
Min 20
Max 26
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.2 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower, most likely later in the day. Light winds.

Thursday 20 December

Summary
Min 21
Max 29
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 4 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers. Winds north to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h shifting south to southeasterly later.


Scrappy but up a tiny bit

Posted on December 13th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Not quite as tiny as yesterday

0700 faint line up the beach at No Mans but no takers

Hello Friends,

10-15 kts of NNE wind blowing as of 0700. Grey skies overhead and an ocean not looking all that interesting. Dee Why seemed to have knee plus wave faces, but the quality was not good and there were only one or two super keen types in the water. The MHL data shows 1.4 metres of 6 second SE wind bump out at sea as of 0400. Tide is coming into a 1.56m high at 1250. Weather outlook is for 8-20mm of rain across the day.

Today being a Thursday, I’ll defer to the Goat’s upcoming look at the week ahead. But I will say that prospects for the weekend don’t seem to have gone backwards since I last checked the models…

Have yourself a top old Thursday!

 

Weather Situation

A high over the western Tasman Sea and a trough over inland New South Wales are directing north to northeasterly winds along the coast. These winds are expected to increase over the next day or two as the trough deepens into a low pressure system over the southern inland of New South Wales.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots offshore during the afternoon and evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1 to 2 metres around midday.
Swell
Southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 95% chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm.

Friday 14 December

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then increasing to 1 to 2 metres around midday.
1st Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon.

Saturday 15 December

Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots becoming variable about 10 knots during the morning then becoming northeasterly 20 to 30 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
1st Swell
Northeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon or evening.
2nd Swell
Southeasterly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the afternoon or evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.

Zippo

Posted on December 12th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Nothing to be seen at No Mans as of 0700

No hope of a wave at 0700

Hello friends,

A light ESE breeze giving the ocean a little texture under the gloomy grey skies on Wednesday morning at Dee Why. As you can see from the pictures, there aren’t any waves. Nor is it likely that you’ll find much of anything elsewhere. As of 0400 the MHL buoy was seeing just a metre of 6 sec SSE chop out at sea.  Not that it made any difference, but tide was coming into a 1.63 m high at 1210.

Outlook is for the energy levels to remain unchanged today before gradually creeping up as we approach the weekend. Tomorrow doesn’t look too interesting, but maybe come Friday we’ll have a few fun ones on offer at spots that like NE conditions. I’m hoping (on your behalf) for fun size chest high east wind swell.

Have a great Wednesday one and all!

Weather Situation

Winds will tend to the northeast today as a high moves into the Tasman sea. Northeasterly winds will then increase ahead of a low deepening over western New South Wales on Thursday and Friday.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Winds
East to southeasterly below 10 knots tending northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the morning.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
East to northeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy.

Thursday 13 December

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm in the evening.

Friday 14 December

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
1st Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
2nd Swell
Southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers.

Breezy and tiny Tuesday

Posted on December 11th, 2018 in Dee Why.

No Mans no dice 0740

Smaller than yesterday

Hello Friends,

A light southerly was giving the ocean a bit of texture this morning at Dee Why. Skies were mostly overcast when I grabbed the snaps at 0740 and swell energy looked to be even less impressive than yesterday’s paltry offerings. Tide was low at 0500 and is currently coming into a 1.7 m high at 1130. Beachwatch reports an ocean temp of 20°C and the latest data from the MHL buoy is showing 1.4 metres of 9-second dead south swell. From the look of Dee Why, I’d say the swell’s staying way out to sea and that even the south magnets will be close to flat.

Outlook for the rest of the working week is not too different from yesterday – ie, no real improvement to the current conditions – but some of the models are looking a wee bit more hopeful for the weekend. The current consensus is that we can expect the wind to be strongly NE across the weekend and that with it, the swell will push up into the surfable range. Looks like maybe Sunday morning could be the go at NE spots…

Have a top old Tuesday everyone!

Weather Situation

A high over the Tasman Sea and a trough through central New South Wales are currently directing moderate to fresh northeasterly winds over the northern half of the coast. A southerly change associated with the trough near the central parts of the coast, is expected to stall and weaken over the Macquarie waters today. Later Wednesday the high over the Tasman Sea will extend another ridge across the coast. Northeasterly winds will then refreshen ahead of a low deepening over western New South Wales on Thursday and Friday.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight

Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
About 1 metre.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Cloudy. 60% chance of showers.

Wednesday 12 December

Winds
Easterly 10 to 15 knots tending northeasterly in the middle of the day.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy.

Thursday 13 December

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Swell
South to southeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 80% chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.

Grey skies and southerly wind to start

Posted on December 10th, 2018 in Dee Why.

No real sign of activity at No Mans 0720

Full tide and not much energy

Hello Friends,

Wind was SSW 9-14 kts as of 0730. Skies were solidly overcast and at 0500 the MHL buoy was showing 1.5 metres of 7-second NE wind bump. As the pictures show, the weak swell settings combined with an incoming tide (the 1.74 m high arrives at 1055) mean no real waves are on offer at Dee Why or at No Mans.

It looks as though the gloomy and gradually more showery weather will continue through to the weekend. At the same time I’m not seeing anything terribly exciting on the swell models for as far ahead as they project. Lots of paddling practice, not much in the way of opportunities to hone surfing skills from the look of it.

Have yourself a top old Monday one and all!


NE and high tide not the combo for Dee Why

Posted on December 9th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Only a slight line up toward No Mans at 0854

Dee Why fat and full at 0855

Hello Friends,

As of 0900 the wind was coming from the NNE at 7-10 kts under sunny skies as we head to a coastal high of 27. The 0600 MHL buoy data showed 1.75 metres of 8-sec NE wind swell. Tide was coming into a deep 1.8 m high at 1015. Despite the NE wind, water’s clicked up a notch to 20C according to Beachwatch.

Despite the otherwise attractive conditions, Dee Why wasn’t luring many surfers at all. It looked very fat, full and weak when I grabbed the pics via my Heath Robinson-esque camera rig for one-armed photographers. I’d say you’d be doing well to catch something in the knee to waist high range. The fact that hardly anyone’s trying, speaks volumes. If you’re keen, you’ll be looking elsewhere for a wave (maybe Northy or Curly).

Outlook for the coming week remains decidely so-so. All the models are showing the same combo of short period N-NE wind bump for the next 7 days. Mornings will be the best shot.

Have a great Sunday everyone!

 

Weather Situation

A high over the Tasman Sea and a trough approaching from the west are directing fresh to strong north to northeasterly winds over New South Wales waters during this weekend. A weak short-lived southerly change will affect far southern waters today, before another southerly change associated with the trough is forecast to move up the southern half of the coast on Monday, where it is expected to stall and weaken during Tuesday. Come Wednesday the high over the Tasman Sea will extend another ridge across the coast.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots early in the morning and again in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
1st Swell
South to southeasterly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
East to northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Monday 10 December

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots during the morning, ahead of a south to southeasterly change 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
1st Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Tuesday 11 December

Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy. 70% chance of showers

Looking small at Dee Why

Posted on December 8th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Quiet at no mans

Tiny waves at DY

Hello Friends,
Not terribly impressive surfwise for Saturday morning. As of 0700 wind was out of the north at 9-13 kts and the MHL buoy’s latest update showed 2 metres of 7 sec NE wind bump. Tide was coming into a swampy 1.8 metre high at 0940.  Today’s high is set to be 28 under sunny skies. Beachwatch is calling the water 19C with all beaches reporting in as clean.

It’s not totally flat but the nearest thing to a wave will be at lower tide – when the wind will be into it. Obviously given the short period and NE direction, the more exposed the spot is to the energy, the better. I reckon waist to chest (in the onshore) is a reasonable hope for this afternoon.

Tomorrow should see a combo south and NE swell situation, but the wind will be about the same as today, so maybe a bit bigger, but you’ll have to love messy onshore conditions. Oh, and the high tide won’t help too much.

The rest of the week isn’t too exciting. And, sad to say, none of the very long range predictions are overly hopeful. Typical summer conditions in other words.

Have a great Saturday everyone!

Weather Situation

A high over the Tasman Sea and a trough approaching from the west will direct fresh to strong north to northeasterly winds over New South Wales waters today and through the weekend. A weak short-lived southerly change will affect far southern waters on Sunday, before another southerly change associated with the trough is forecast to move up the southern half of the coast on Monday.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast

Winds
North to northeasterly 20 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots in the evening.
Seas
2 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Sunny.

Sunday 9 December

Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots turning northeasterly during the morning. Winds reaching up to 25 knots early in the morning and again in the late evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
South to southeasterly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
East to northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

Monday 10 December

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots shifting south to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
2nd Swell
South to southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Wind bumps only

Posted on December 7th, 2018 in Dee Why.

DY at 0745 looking tiny


Hello Friends,
Nice morning out there, but the waves are close to non-existant. The MHL buoy was seeing 1.2 metres of 5 second NE bump at 0400. As the picture indicates, there’s not much of anything at Dee Why. Tide is coming into a swampy 1.8 m at 0900 – which isn’t helping either. We’ve got a standard summer day coming up with a high around 26 and afternoon NEr of 20-25 kts.
Outlook you ask? Well it’s Friday so that means the ever-reliable Goat has rolled out a fresh take on the surf week to come.
Have a great Friday!

from the Bureau at 0410
Weather Situation
A high over the Tasman Sea and a trough approaching from the west will direct fresh to strong north to northeasterly winds over New South Wales waters until Sunday. A southerly change associated with this trough is forecast to move up the southern half of the coast on Monday.

Forecast for Friday until midnight
Winds
Northeasterly 20 to 25 knots.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
South to southeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Cloud clearing.
Saturday 8 December
Winds
North to northeasterly 20 to 25 knots.
Seas
2 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.
Sunday 9 December
Winds
Northerly 20 to 25 knots turning northeasterly during the morning.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
1st Swell
South to southeasterly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on December 6th, 2018 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 6 December 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Coming up: Some warm days, balmy breezes and some small to medium  waves to keep you entertained… what more could you want? 🙂

Friday: around 1 metre or so Eastish

Saturday: up a little into the 1-2 metre range Eastish

Sunday: ditto

Monday: ditto North East

Tuesday: ditto down a little

Wednesday: ditto East South East

Thursday: and just ditto.

The water’s nice, the air’s warm and it’s Summertime 🙂

TG

Up in the Sky

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Dec 6 11:30:00 2018

MSLP Analysis for Thu Dec 6 06:00:00 2018 AUTC

Wind

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.889,151.216,7,i:pressure,m:cIJaknc

Down in the Water

Water temp is around 21… pleasant enough for a swim.

image

Tide

https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2018-2019.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast updated at 9:01 pm EDT on Thursday 6 December 2018.

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Clear.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Mostly clear. Winds northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Friday 7 December

Summary
Min 17
Max 26
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds north to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light before dawn then becoming northeasterly 25 to 35 km/h in the morning.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Saturday 8 December

Summary
Min 18
Max 28
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds north to northeasterly 25 to 35 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Sunday 9 December

Summary
Min 18
Max 28
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds east to northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Monday 10 December

Summary
Min 19
Max 28
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny morning. Medium (40%) chance of showers in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming south to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the evening.

Tuesday 11 December

Summary
Min 20
Max 23
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 2 to 6 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers. Winds southerly 15 to 25 km/h turning southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 12 December

Summary
Min 20
Max 25
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers. Winds southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h tending easterly during the day.

Thursday 13 December

Summary
Min 21
Max 25
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 4 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day


Might be a wave

Posted on December 6th, 2018 in At large.

Longy Weds arvo maybe again today?

Hello Friends,
Wave energy looks to have faded overnight, but there should still be some soft waist plus wind bumps around at places with easterly exposure. The MHL data for Sydney hasn’t updated since yesterday but late in the afternoon when I walked down for a look (busted clavicle means no driving or pushie riding) there were actually fun looking little things at Longy. It was scrappy and weak, but rideable, and looking at the cam for Curly, I can believe there might be something again.
Tide is deep again – 1.77 m – at 0825. So, expect fatness along with the weakness. Wind was light east early but it will swing NE and pick up into the 15-25 kt range this afternoon.
Outlook is for short period wind bump from the NE for the next week at least. Typical summer conditions really.
Have a good Thursday and keep on smilin’

Weather Situation

A high centred over eastern Bass Strait directs south to southeast winds along the coast. As the high shifts east into the Tasman Sea over the next day or so winds will tend north to northeasterly and become fresh to strong as a trough approaches from the west.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Winds
Northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the morning and reaching up to 25 knots at times this afternoon and evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Friday 7 December

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres by early evening.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Saturday 8 December

Winds
North to northeasterly 20 to 25 knots.
Seas
2 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

 


 

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