Archive for December 2018

Windblown ol’ Sydney town

Posted on December 22nd, 2018 in Dee Why.

Northy not doing it

You’d have to be keen at Gardens 0625

Semi, sorta catcahable lumps at Dee Why 0630

Sth Narra sorta maybe junk

Gutless wonders at the point 0630

Hello Friends,

Well, that didn’t pan out the way I’d hoped. Last night the wind faded out and there were soft, disorganised but potentially rideable looking lumps and bumps at south exposures. The wind forecasts were saying that maybe there’d be an hour or two around first light when it’d still be calm. Alas, by 0630 it was 20-25 kts from the south to SSW and the swell was, if anything, smaller than last night. Good morning to have stayed in bed I reckon.
The MHL buoy was showing 2.3 m out at sea, but it was coming from the SSW, so very little was getting into us. Not that it matters much for surfers today, but we have a deep 1.9 m high at 0830 and then it drops back to a 0.2m 1510 low.
The Bureau has a gale warning posted for out region today and there’s a 70% chance of rain along the coast.
Tomorrow’s going to be almost as windblown and swell direction will still be ordinary. Monday sees the swell direction improving and the wind going NE in the afternoon, but the models aren’t exactly looking exciting. Christimas morning might possibly offer a fun little one in the north corners.
Have a great weekend everyone!

Weather Situation
A low pressure trough over the far northeast of NSW is directing south to southeasterly winds over much of the coastal waters, though winds over the far north coast tend north to northeasterly. A southerly change has extended across southern coastal areas overnight, and will push northward to the far north coast during the rest of today. Winds ease in the south during Sunday as a high pressure system drifts across southeastern Australia. Come Monday the high is expected to be situated in the Tasman Sea and to extend a ridge to central parts of the coast, and the entire coast by Tuesday with northeasterly winds predominating.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Gale Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southwesterly 20 to 30 knots, tending southerly in the morning. Winds reaching up to 35 knots during the morning.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 2.5 to 3 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Sunday 23 December
Strong Wind Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots offshore during the morning. Winds turning southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing below 1.5 metres by early evening.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, tending southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres by early evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Monday 24 December
Winds
South to southeasterly about 10 knots becoming east to northeasterly during the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre, decreasing below 0.5 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres, tending southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.


Southerly bumps on Friday morning

Posted on December 21st, 2018 in Dee Why.

0650 bumpy and small but not flat

Weak lines

Point not happening but jumky little things at Kiddies 0650

Hello Friends,

Grey skies again, but no rain on the radar as Friday kicks off. As of 0700 the North Head weather station was seeing 7-12 kts of SSW wind and out at sea the MHL buoy was detecting 2 metres of 6-sec SSE (144-152°) wind swell. As you can see from the pictures, there were junky and weak little knee to maybe waist high lumps at the Dee Why end of the beach. Tide hits a deepish 1.8 m high at 0745 and will be back to low at 1420.

There’s a medium chance of a light shower at some point today as we head to a high of 24. The wind should pick up from the south at 15-25 kts later. Beachwatch hadn’t updated as I was writing this, but yesterday it was indicating suss water fcom Narrabeen to the Bower. Temp was 20°.

As is his wont the Goat has dropped a Christmas forecast and his annual holiday message for your consideration. Pure Goat if I may say so!

Have a find Friday and stay happy!

 

Weather Situation

A high over the northern Tasman Sea extends a ridge towards the far northern coast. A low pressure trough over central parts of NSW will continue to move to the northeast, with a secondary trough stretching through western inland parts. This is directing east to northeasterly winds along the coast ahead of a fresh to strong southerly change, moving to the far northern coastline this evening. Another southerly change will move up the NSW late Friday into Saturday.

Forecast for Friday until midnight

Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots turning southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Easterly 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre around midday.
Weather
Cloudy.

Saturday 22 December

Winds
East to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots turning southerly 20 to 30 knots early in the morning then decreasing to 20 to 25 knots in the morning.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
South to southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres inshore, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Cloudy. 70% chance of showers.

Sunday 23 December

Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots turning southeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Southerly 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
2nd Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

The Goat’s Christmas Surf Forecast and Christmas Message

Posted on December 20th, 2018 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 20 December 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

How about that.. Rain, Hail And Shine all in less than an hour … And now dark clouds are coming over again and I hear the rumble of thunder again. I wonder if Mother Nature enjoyed that so much she wants to do it all over again??  By George By Jingo By Jove I think she is …and she’s sharing it around a few other places as well this time by the look of it… with some gusty wind. Oh how Tropical of her…

Most people have been busy finishing up work or school for the year and haven’t had much time for a surf. If that’s you, you haven’t been missing an awful lot… unless you were lucky enough to get it at the right tide, before a wind change, before it got crowded, or you didn’t really care anyway.

And the outlook is for an up and down week ahead with mixed blessings (oh TG can be so verbally apt)

So, just take it as it comes…relax.. it’s holiday time, chill out, get wet and have fun when you can.

Friday: up from the South East, could be 2 metres or so.. with S/SE wind

Saturday: around 2 metres or so at dead South places and with S wind

Sunday: easing back into the 1-2 metre range South East (S/SW/SE wind)

Monday: down around 1 metre or so East South East

Tuesday: Chrissy Day – around 1 metre or so of Easterly surf for you and the kids or you and mum and dad or you and your matesto try out the new surf toys in.

Wednesday: Boxing Day – up ever so slightly say 1- 1 + metres  from persistent Noreast wind… which btw looks like giving the Sydney Hobart yachts a slowish run up the Harbour, and then a nice tailwind for the early part of the race at least

Thursday: around 1 metre or so East at first, then coming up a little later.

Merry Christmas to everyone. Stay safe in the surf and out of it.  Not a plug but if you’re heading away I do like this ad for its road safety message.  We all need reminders at times.

Have Fun!

TG.

 

 

Weather from the Bureau:

Summary
Showers. Possible storm.
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. Thunderstorm likely, possibly severe. Winds east to southeasterly 20 to 25 km/h turning southerly 20 to 30 km/h in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Friday 21 December

Summary
Min 20
Max 24
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers. Winds southerly 15 to 25 km/h tending southeasterly in the middle of the day then becoming light in the late afternoon.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Saturday 22 December

Summary
Min 18
Max 22
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 2 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning and early afternoon. Winds southerly 15 to 20 km/h increasing to 20 to 30 km/h early in the morning.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Sunday 23 December

Summary
Min 17
Max 23
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Winds south to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning southeasterly during the afternoon.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Monday 24 December

Summary
Min 17
Max 26
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day then tending north to northeasterly during the evening.

Tuesday 25 December

Summary
Min 17
Max 28
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 26 December

Summary
Min 19
Max 29
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Thursday 27 December

Summary
Min 20
Max 30
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day

 


Pretty and clean but small

Posted on December 20th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Little bump showing at Kiddies 0625

Hello Friends,

A beautiful morning along the beaches but the waves are very tiny at Dee Why. I reckon it was around the knee high range at 0625. Tide was coming into a 1.68 m high at 0700. It’ll be back to low at 1330. We’re going to a high of 30 and there’s a 70% chance of a shower later. Plus, the wind will come up from the NE and get into the 15-20 kt range.

Out at sea the MHL buoy was detecting 1.3 metres of 10-sec SSE swell. It was coming from165° – which is a bit too south to really show at the Dee Why end. There might be a bit more activity up at Longy (and other north ends), however given the tide, I wouldn’t be too hopeful.

Outlook is for the conditions to bumble along at the current low levels for the next week – at least. There is some disparity between the ECM and GFS models about the prospect of a south pulse (but with lots of south wind) this weekend though, so who knows… maybe…

Have a top old Thursday everyone!

Another quiet morning at No Mans

Weather Situation

A high over the northern Tasman Sea extends a ridge towards the northern coast, while a second high lies to the south of Tasmania. A weak trough between these two systems lies about the Macquarie coast, directing a predominantly east to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast. A second trough near Adelaide is moving east, and is forecast to bring a southerly change to southern waters of New South Wales late this evening and to central and northern waters on Friday.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Winds
North to northeasterly about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the middle of the day then shifting south to southeasterly in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers. A thunderstorm likely.

Friday 21 December

Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots turning east to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy.

Saturday 22 December

Winds
East to southeasterly about 10 knots tending southerly 15 to 25 knots during the morning.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon.

Drizzling Dee Why

Posted on December 19th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Nothing at No Mans – again

Little burgery bumps at Kiddies 0745

Hello Friends,

Another day of weak and gutless little bumps for Dee Why. I suppose you might be able to bobble along a few metres on the bigger ones, but with 6-9 kts of SSE wind and a steady drizzle under gloomy skies, getting in the water’s not the most appetizing prospect. The Bureau tells us that the percipitation is most likely this morning and this afternoon. Out at sea the MHL buoy was riding gently up and down on 1.3 m of 9-second dead south swell. Tide hit a 1.56 m high at 0615 and is now dropping to a low at 1240.

Looking at the swell models this morning suggests that our current weak knee to waist high conditions are likely to persist for at least the next 7 days. And if the long range predictions are to be believed, we aren’t in for any real improvement between now and New Years.

Have yourself a great Wednesday one and all!

 

Weather Situation

A high over the northern Tasman Sea extends a ridge towards the northern coast, while a second high lies to the south of Tasmania. A weak trough between these two systems lies about the Hunter coast, with predominantly north to northeasterlies to the north of the trough and south to southeasterlies to its south. As the trough dissipates today, winds will tend north to northeasterly throughout. A second trough near Adelaide is moving east, and is forecast to bring a southerly change to southern waters of New South Wales late Thursday and to central and northern waters on Friday.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Winds
South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning east to northeasterly about 10 knots during the afternoon and evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
1st Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm this evening.

Thursday 20 December

Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots becoming variable about 10 knots in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
East to northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.

Friday 21 December

Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots decreasing to about 10 knots during the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 metres during the evening.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy.

Grey morning, tiny waves at Dee Why

Posted on December 18th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

As of 0400 the MHL buoy was seeing 1.3 metres of 7 sec NNE and SSE wind bump and three hours later when I took the pics, Dee Why was struggling to make knee high. There were a few keen types hanging out at Kiddies, but the tiny waves looked pretty weak and slow. Tide is currently dropping to a low at 1140.

Wind wasn’t doing much inshore and as of 0720 it was SSW 7-11 kts at North Head. The forecast says it’ll go SE and then around to the NE. It doesn’t look as though the swell will change much between now and the weekend. And beyond that into next week, the predictions are not exciting. Typical summer conditions I guess.

Have a great Tuesday everyone!

No Mans no waves

Foam lines but very tiny at 0710

Hopefuls hanging about at Kiddies 0710


Clean but small early

Posted on December 17th, 2018 in Dee Why.

A little more activity this morning at 0650

Quiet looking at No Mans 0650

Hello Friends,

As of 0650 wind was coming from the NW at 4 kts. It’s due to come up this morning from the N-NE, but it could stay offshore so we might have good surface conditions all morning. There’s a chance it’ll go around to the south late in the day. There were a number of people in the water at the Dee Why end of the beach, but it looked weak and mostly on the small end of the waist to chest range. A couple of SUPsters were poking around at the point, but I didn’t see anything catchable come through for them.
The MHL buoy was seeing 1.7 metres of 8 sec ENE wind bump as of 0400. Tide is dropping to the low at 1035 and then coming back into a 1.35m high at 1635.
We’re supposed to get a swing to the SW in the wind regime tomorrow. The models don’t indicate much change in the swell energy settings. That looks like continuing all week, but by Wednesday the wind is expected to be more SE. Beyond that, the models are projecting more or less the same wave energy for the rest of the work week (ie marginal, knee to waist from the southern quarters with south winds)
Looking ahead at the long range models for next week currently suggests we’re in for smaller to near flat surf conditions.
Have a great Monday everyone and stay happy!

Weather Situation
A trough of low pressure is moving over the southern New South Wales coast, while a high near New New Zealand extends a ridge towards the northern coast. This trough will shift to central waters later today, bringing a weak southerly change, before stalling and gradually decaying around the Hunter coast. A more vigorous southerly change is forecast to affect most coastal areas at the end of the week.

Forecast for Monday until midnight
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching 25 knots offshore in the morning. Winds possibly turning southerly 10 to 15 knots inshore later in the day.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 2 metres in the afternoon.
1st Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 2 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the afternoon.
2nd Swell
Southeasterly below 1 metre, tending southerly 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Tuesday 18 December
Winds
South to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots tending south to southeasterly in the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Wednesday 19 December
Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 20 knots becoming variable about 10 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.


Junky and bumpy but not flat

Posted on December 16th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Another rather murky start to the day at Dee Why. Surf conditions weren’t too imteresting, but if you’re keen, there are junky waist plus bumps to be found. Yesterday’s rain has made water quality dicey from Bungan to Manly according to Beachwatch, so if you have any fresh cuts or scratches, you might want to avoid exposure to the now abundant microbes for what is really pretty marginal surf.
As of 0800 wind was NNE 8-13 kts at North Head. Local weather stations at Collaroy were showing closer to 20kts NNE. The MHL buoy report from 0500 showed a 2.1 metre combo of NE and S south swell with a period of about 7 seconds. It should bump up a little once the wind gets into the 20-30 kt range from the NE this afternoon. But quality… and water… yeah, not the best.
Looking at this morning’s run of the swell models, outlook is for a gradual decline in size into the waist minus range as the week unfolds. The most optimistic model was predicting pretty good conditions for Friday at spots that like dead south. Out beyond that, the speculations about the Christmas week currently are thinking we’ll have windy conditions with short period and small waves.
Have yourself a good Sunday and keep on smilin’!

One hopeful at No Mans 0745

Set at Kiddies 0745

A little activity

Weather Situation
A broad trough of low pressure lies over inland New South Wales, while a high is situated near New New Zealand, directing fresh to strong northeasterly winds along most coastal areas. Later today the low the trough is expected to cross southern parts of the coast, before continuing to central areas on Monday. This trough is likely to linger about central waters for the following day or two, while a high over the Tasman Sea maintains a ridge towards the northern coast.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Northerly 20 to 30 knots turning northeasterly during the afternoon.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Monday 17 December
Strong Wind Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots, reaching 30 knots offshore in the morning. Winds turning northeasterly in the afternoon.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 2 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the afternoon.
2nd Swell
South to southeasterly below 1 metre, tending southerly 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Tuesday 18 December
Winds
North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots shifting south to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the morning.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Northeasterly aroun


Submit a summer surf picture

Posted on December 15th, 2018 in At large.

On ABC radio this morning I invited folks to send in pictures of the waves from up and down the NSW coast. I’m currently working on the nuts and bolts, so for now if you’re super keen, send your pics to RealSurfNSW [at symbol] gmail [dot] com!

Don


Foggy, flabby and funky

Posted on December 15th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Mushburggers before 0700

Misty, foggy and weak at 0640

Helllo Friends,

Misty and murky start to the day at Dee Why. There’s a tiny bit of weak waist high east wind bump washing into Dee Why this morning. The wind is set to ramp up soon and to 20-30 kts from the NE by this afternoon. While the waves should come up at the same time, I’m not expecting anything too impressive from a quality standpoint, but we should be seeing head plus wave faces at exposed spots by the time the wind’s at full strength. There’s more rain in the forecast for this afternoon too.

Looking at the key numbers, the MHL buoy off Sydney was seeing 1.9 metres of 7 sec bump out of the NE as of 0400. At report writing time (0700) wind was out of the NNE at 6-10 kts. Tide hits a 0.76 m low at 0815 and then will be back to a 1.42 m high at 1430.

Outlook is for tomorrow to be similar today – NE wind swell in the head high range at exposed locations, but 20-30 kts of NE in on top of it. Monday looks like more of the same, but the swell is starting to fade. However the wind could be less annoying for the early session.

Have a top old Sunday everyone!

Weather Situation

A complex low pressure system lies over inland New South Wales, while a ridge is strengthening over the southern Tasman Sea. This pattern is directing fresh to strong northeasterly winds along most coastal waters. During Sunday the low is expected to move southeast over Tasmania, with an associated trough crossing southern parts of the New South Wales coast. This trough is likely to linger about southern and central waters for the following day or two, while a high over the Tasman Sea maintains a ridge towards the northern coast.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Northeasterly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
1st Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
2nd Swell
Southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 95% chance of showers. A thunderstorm likely.

Sunday 16 December

Strong Wind Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Northeasterly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.

Monday 17 December

Winds
North to northeasterly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 2 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the afternoon or evening.
2nd Swell
South to southeasterly below 1 metre, tending southeast to southwesterly 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Sunny.

 

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