Archive for April 2019

on the road, heading east

Posted on April 22nd, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Light NE breeze as of 0700 in Sydney this Monday morning. The latest MHL data shows 1.4 metres of east swell at just under 10 seconds apart. Looking at various cams around Sydney this morning reveals that those numbers are translating into smoothish, but weak and lumpy little knee to waist high plus waves around the place. Stretches best aligned to the swell direction are seeing the occasional chest high face on take off. Not the greatest conditions, but you could get wet.

Tide is coming into a 1.5 metre high at 1030 this morning. Should be a mostly fine day with a high of 26. According to Beachwatch, the current water temp is a pleasant 21C.

Tomorrow should be showery with more of the current marginal bump. The just-surfable conditions should persist through the middle of the week, but the trend is gradually downward. The latest long range projections show it staying small through into next week.

In grey Gippsland this morning, about to roll east toward the coast, leaving Vicco behind. Just checked the situation at Bells and it seems there’s just enough swell for them to start throwing some heats in the water. Judging from the cams along that coast, it’s in the waist plus range, a bit sideshore and bumpy. Latest swell forecast is showing some hope for a bit more size in the Torquay surf zone late in the week.

Hope to have a postcard to share later today… so check back later and have a top old Monday!

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea is maintaining a ridge towards northeast New South Wales, and directing east to northeasterly winds over most coastal areas. Meanwhile, a low pressure trough is moving into the state’s west, associated with a cold front passing to the south. This trough will bring a southerly change to southern parts of the coast today, continuing through to central waters on Tuesday before stalling and decaying. Following this, the Tasman high is expected to have a brief return to dominance, before another trough and southerly change in the second half of the week.

Forecast for Monday until midnight

Winds
North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm late this evening.

Tuesday 23 April

Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots. Winds inshore may briefly turn southerly about 10 knots during the morning hours.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning.

Wednesday 24 April

Winds
East to northeasterly about 10 knots tending north to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm

Postcards from Phillip Island

Posted on April 21st, 2019 in At large.

From today, an hour after the swell started filling in and a couple hours before the sky clouded over as the front arrived…

Phillip Island reef

Woolami set lines

Woolami

Woolami

Woolami

Woolami

Smiths

Smiths


Postcards from Vicco

Posted on April 21st, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,
Actually got some small waves at 13th Beach yesterday. Water about 18 too, so not bad in a springy.

Summery weather at micro Bells

Winkipop set

Traveller self portrait at Winkipop

13th Beach

Eastern end 13th Beach

Moon popping out of building in Melbourne last night

Climate change in action. Around 10 degrees above normal


Should be a little wave this morning

Posted on April 20th, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Looking like another sunny day down here in Melbourne. Sadly the swell models earlier this week were wildly off the mark and we’ve just learned that the Bells contest is having another lay day. They could use the conditions you’re seeing in Sydney. Speaking of which, there should be a few fun waist to chest plusses at east-optimal spots today – ie, pretty much everywhere in the Sydney region. The cleanest conditions will be early when the full tide will also be a factor. As of 0630 wind along the beaches of Sydney was coming lightly from the west. It should stay light for the early session but gradually come around to the E-NE by lunch time. As of 0500 the MHL buoy was detecting 1.3 metres of 10-second swell from the E by ESE. That means it’s at about the same intensity as yesterday evening, but not as big, or south as Friday morning’s session.

The first tide of the daylight hours is a swampy 1.7 m high at 0850. That’ll drain away to 0.35 low at 1455.

Outlook is for wind to be more around to the NE tomorrow and Monday and for the swell energy to fade somewhat. Tomorrow morning could be fun for the early (tide not withstanding), but probably a little smaller than today.

The new week looks small and fading toward tinyness by Friday. But then, if the models have it right, we could see a potentially solid south swell event around Saturday.

We’re planning to drive down to Bells later today, so I may have a postcard or two to share…

Saturday getting started in Melbourne…

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea extends a ridge along the New South Wales coast, whilst a trough offshore weakens. Little change to this pattern is expected until a cold front skims southeastern Australia on Monday, bringing a southerly change to the southern half of the coast.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Winds
East to northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the middle of the day. Winds inshore tending southerly about 10 knots until the afternoon.
Seas
Below 0.5 metres, increasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Easterly 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore.

Sunday 21 April

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by early evening.
Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre later in the evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Monday 22 April

Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
East to northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.

Looking micro in Sydney

Posted on April 19th, 2019 in Surf Reports.

Hello Friends,

Greetings from country Victoria where your correspondent is currently heading south to Bells. Should get there about midday, which will be when they make the call to start the day’s heats – or not. If possible I’ll post some pictures.

As for Sydney, the MHL buoy is showing 1.3 metre SSW wind bump at 7 seconds and the BoM says wind as of 0800 is light south. High tide is peaking at a swampy 1.8 metres. Wind should stay light and variable and apparent swell direction should be east – but gutless and tiny.

As for the outlook, well it’s Friday, so the Goat has rolled out a fresh forecast to have with your hot cross buns this morning!

Have a good Good Friday everybody.

 

Good Friday, Rutherglen 

Weather Situation

A trough along the coast will decay today as a high pressure system near Tasmania strengthens a ridge across the area, directing south to southeasterly winds before tending northeasterly in the south later today. Little change is expected to this pattern until a cold front skims southeast Australia on Monday, resulting in a southerly change along the southern half of the coast.

Forecast for Friday until midnight

Winds
Southerly 10 to 15 knots becoming variable about 10 knots in the late morning.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore.

Saturday 20 April

Winds
East to northeasterly below 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.

Sunday 21 April

Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Mostly sunny day. The chance of a thunderstorm in the evening.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on April 18th, 2019 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 18 April 2019: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Beaut weather for the school hols.  Hope everyone’s having a good time… kids, mums and dads and others.

Whether you’re in Sydney or up the coast, where a lot of people seem to have gone, there looks like being waves of some sort everywhere for the coming week. Mostly medium to small from outta Easterlyish directions, but waves for a bit of fun nevertheless.

Surf outlook for Sydney:

Friday: somewhere in the 1-2 metre range East North East

Saturday: ditto

Sunday: ditto

Monday: ditto

Tuesday: similar but more South East

Wednesday: ditto East South East

Thursday: down a little say 1- 1+ metres from the East.

Have a Happy Easter.

And Remember the Diggers on Anzac Day.

TG.

Up in the Sky

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Apr 18 03:30:00 2019

MSLP Analysis for Thu Apr 18 00:00:00 2019 AUTC

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.373,151.216,8,i:pressure,m:cIJaknc

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 21, 22.

image

Tides

https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2018-2019.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Max 26
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming south to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the evening.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 9:30 am to 2:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 5 [Moderate]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis IconLocationMinMax
Mostly sunny.Sydney26
Mostly sunny.Penrith28
Mostly sunny.Liverpool27
Mostly sunny.Terrey Hills24
Mostly sunny.Richmond27
Mostly sunny.Parramatta27
Mostly sunny.Campbelltown27
Mostly sunny.Bondi24

Friday 19 April

Summary
Min 17
Max 25
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower and the chance of a thunderstorm. Winds south to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light before dawn.

Sun protection recommended from 9:30 am to 2:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 5 [Moderate]

Saturday 20 April

Summary
Min 17
Max 25
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Light winds.

Sun protection recommended from 9:30 am to 2:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 5 [Moderate]

Sunday 21 April

Summary
Min 17
Max 25
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:30 am to 2:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 5 [Moderate]

Monday 22 April

Summary
Min 17
Max 25
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers and the chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds.

Tuesday 23 April

Summary
Min 18
Max 24
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 4 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers and the chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds.

Wednesday 24 April

Summary
Min 17
Max 26
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny day. Slight (20%) chance of a shower later in the day. Light winds

 


Beautiful and tiny yet again

Posted on April 18th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Perfect conditions again, but still only a hint of swell. The 1.84 m high tide at 0715 was swamping Dee Why, but it hardly mattered as the swell was trickling in at maybe waist high on the big ones up the beach. Nothing was going on at the point. Wind was lightly from the NW and the MHL data from 0500 was showing a metre from the east at 8 seconds.

Should be a mostly sunny day, with a high of 26.

On the road shortly, so stay tuned for postcards!

 

Tiny at 0645 

Weather Situation

A strong high pressure system over New Zealand is maintaining a ridge towards New South Wales today, resulting in southeast to northeasterly winds in coastal areas. A cold front will skim across southeast Australia today, with an associated trough bringing a southerly change to waters south of about Newcastle. Behind this, a new high is expected to move over the Tasman Sea at the end of the week, and should remain dominant through the weekend. Another trough and southerly change are likely early in the new week.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming east to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the late afternoon then shifting southerly in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Friday 19 April

Winds
Southerly 10 to 15 knots becoming variable about 10 knots in the morning.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm.

Saturday 20 April

Winds
Northeasterly below 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Up a touch this morning

Posted on April 17th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Mostly clear skies as Wednesday fired up along the beaches. Happily it looks as though we have a little more wave energy than yesterday – which isn’t saying much, because it was basically flat. A few bods scattered among the beach break peaklets as of 0700. From what I saw, I’d say it’s in the ankle to knee high range with the odd plus.
Wind was light westerly early. It should swing more to the east but not kick up too hard later. The MHL buoy was showing a metre of 7-sec wind bump from the ESE as of 0500. First tide of the day was a deepish 1.8m high at 0620. There’s a slight chance of a passing shower during the day. We’re heading to a high of 25C and ocean temp is sitting on 20C.

Outlook is for wave energy to increase just a tiny bit over the next couple of days and for there to be the prospect of something in the waist plus range by the weekend.

As noted yesterday, I’m off on a road trip to Vicco over the coming week, so stay tuned for remote status updates on local conditions along with the odd postcard.

Have a great Wednesday everyone!

 

Not much at the point 0655

Peak at the beach 0655  

Weather Situation

A strong high pressure system near New Zealand is maintaining a ridge towards New South Wales today, resulting in southeast to northeasterly winds in coastal areas. A cold front, currently south of the Bight, will skim across southeast Australia on Thursday, with an associated trough bringing a southerly change to waters south of about Newcastle. Behind this, a new high is expected to move over the Tasman Sea at the end of the week, and should remain dominant through the weekend. Another trough and southerly change are likely early in the new week.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Winds
East to northeasterly about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Thursday 18 April

Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming east to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon then shifting southerly 15 to 20 knots in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny day.

Friday 19 April

Winds
Southerly 10 to 15 knots becoming southeasterly about 10 knots during the morning.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon.

Close to flat

Posted on April 16th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Another beautiful morning along the beaches without much of anything in the way of waves. There were a few people in the water along the beach at Dee Why, but waves were struggling to make the knee high mark. Needless to say, the point wasn’t doing anything. Winds were light as we came off the 0525 high tide earlier this morning. Out at sea the main swell was coming from the south. It was a metre or so, but the average period was a gutless 7 seconds.

Swell direction should go more east across the next few days and at the same time gradually come up into the barely surfable range. This morning sees some of the modelling predicting a bump into the waist to chest range this weekend as the easterly swell average period stretches out toward the 9-10 second range. Your correspondent won’t be in Sydney at that point as I’m off on a drive down to Vicco for a few days. I’m expecting to be able to put up postcards from my travels, and to stay in touch with local conditions too.

Have a great Tuesday everybody!

Going for one at 0745

Not much happening at 0745 

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea extends a ridge towards the northern New South Wales coast. Little change to this pattern is expected until a cold front slips to the south on Thursday, bringing a southerly change to southern waters. After this, winds will quickly tend northeast to southeasterly as another high moves over the southern Tasman Sea.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight

Winds
East to southeasterly about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Wednesday 17 April

Winds
East to northeasterly about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers in the morning. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon.

Thursday 18 April

Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon. Winds turning southerly 10 to 15 knots in the south in the late evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny day. The chance of a thunderstorm in the evening.

You’d have to be keen

Posted on April 15th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

A beautiful morning in every respect save one. If you are super keen and have something very floaty in your surf toy collection, you might be able to get an ankle to knee high bump at places that like the ESE direction of the 10-sec sub-one metre swell.

We’re expecting a partly cloudy day with a maximum of 23C for Monday. First tide of the daylight hours is the low at 1105. By then the wind should be around to ESE at about 10 kts.

The good news is that the models are pegging today as the low point of the week and that by Thursday we could be seeing waist high plusses at spots well tuned to an easterly wind bump.

Have a great Monday everybody!

Hint of a line

Nice morning, but no waves to speak of 

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea will move slowly east while maintaining a ridge through New South Wales for the next few days. This high pressure system will drift further east toward New Zealand as a cold front slipping to the south of the state during the mid-week brings a southerly wind change over the southern coasts on Thursday. This change will then be quickly followed by another high pressure system from the west that will move toward the southern Tasman Sea by the later part of the week.

Forecast for Monday until midnight

Winds
Southerly 10 to 15 knots tending east to southeasterly about 10 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers.

Tuesday 16 April

Winds
East to southeasterly about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers.

Wednesday 17 April

Winds
East to southeasterly about 10 knots becoming northeasterly during the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers

 

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