The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted by: on July 11th, 2019

Saturday Surf Report

Hey Don – Simon ran out of time to talk this morning on 702! First time that’s happened.

Anyway everyone – here’s the Saturday surf report 🙂 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

It’s flat as a tack..barely a ripple.

Some blue sky and occasional bright sunshine breaking through the clouds… couple of drops of water.

Wind is West at  around 50kph and while the air temp is 12 the wind chill is keeping the apparent temp down to 2!

Flat, cold, windy… back to bed!

The last few days have been really pretty to look at – blue skies, nice lines on the ocean suggesting swell, but the waves have been a bit deceptive at times – they’ve looked like they’ll break, but don’t. Or they look like you need to take a couple of extra paddles to make sure you’re on, but next thing you’ve fallen over the front of the board down the wave…unless you’re young, fit and agile and you can handle anything, and you don’t have to worry about the wind blowing your wig off.  It has been a bit windy!

The banks are pretty straight across a lot of beaches at the moment so that doesn’t create much of a rideable wave at low or high tide. This has meant frustration, so a lot of people simply haven’t bothered to go in the water, despite it being school holidays.

Today  the Bureau of Meteorology’s Sydney Coastal Waters Forecast has a Gale warning (NW/W/SW), with Seas of 2 to 3 metres, Swell Southerly below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres by early evening.

But the Gale force NW/W/SW wind looks like keeping the bigger swell out of the coast, and the due South swell direction means it will go straight past Sydney. The later South West direction will push it out into the Tasman… so I’m expecting the surf to stay flat or less than 1 metre

But there are always other things you can do at the beach on a sunny day if you want to burn off some energy, like take a run or a brisk walk or a paddle in the breeze or a swim… And the BoM says, despite the sunny day, “Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]”… Isn’t that interesting.

If you just want a surf, you might want to stay in bed and plan something else today.

For tomorrow, the BoM forecast is for “Seas of 2 to 3 metres. Swell Southerly 2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by early evening. “
Hmm…TG thinks most of that will stay offshore.
Depending on the battle between the wind and the swell, the surf on Sunday might start to come up into the 1-2 metre range at places open to due South, … some might even get into protected spots… but my guess is the wind is more likely to push it back.

For the week ahead…

Westerly type winds are expected all through the week….

Westerlies initially flatten the surf on the East Coast, until swell that has built up coming over many thousands of kilometres across the Great Australian Bight and the southern ocean refracts to the left around Victoria, and starts either coming up the NSW coast, or heads off in a south westerly direction into the Tasman.

It’s always hard to say but it looks like the alternating W/NW/SW winds across the country will push most of the bigger swell out into the Tasman, or it will go right on up the coast past Sydney … which is fine for the average punter, as there’ll be fun leftover surf from that.

So, while it will be big offshore, right in close to the coast the South swell should be more moderately sized.

It might start to come up possibly Sunday or more likely Monday, and that should last all week.

And with the expected offshore winds there should be some fun times ahead for surfers…depending on the banks… and we’re not talking about the Big 4.

Monday: say in the 1-2 metre range at dead South spots, but there’ll be a lot of SW in the swell; despite the reasonable wave period there’ll be a battle between the wave pulse and the wind, with the wind most likely keeping the swell down

Tuesday:  bigger, southerly swell with a period bigger than 10 seconds could see surf around maybe 2 or 2+ metres at places open to the South, and some getting into other beaches

Wednesday: easing back in the upper 1-2 metre range, still due South

Thursday: down a little in the 1-2 metre range, as the direction turns more South West

Friday: up again 2-3 metres at due South places.

A couple of wind chill days ahead, so stay warm.  Water’s pleasant enough at around 18-19.

TG

 

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 11 July 2019: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Last few days have been really pretty to look at, though waves have been a bit deceptive – look like they’ll break but don’t …look like you need to take a couple of extra strokes, but you’re falling off the front…unless you’re young fit and agile and you handle anything, and you don’t have to worry about the wind blowing your wig off.  The banks are pretty straight at a lot of beaches and could do with some improvement.

Westerly type winds are expected all through next week. Westerlies initially flatten the surf on the East coast, until swell coming across the Great Australian Bight refracts left around Victoria, and comes either up the coast or heads off in a south westerly direction into the Tasman, depending on the wind pushing it along.

It looks to TG that the alternating W/NW/SW winds will push most of the bigger stuff out into the Tasman or it will go right on up the coast past Sydney, which is fine for the average punter.

So big offshore, but right in close to the coast some moderately sized South swell should start to come up from possibly Sunday or more likely Monday, that should last all week. And with the  expected offshore winds there should be some fun times ahead…depending on the banks.

Friday: less than 1 metre or flat

Saturday: less than 1 metre or flat

Sunday: could start to come up into the 1-2 metre range at places open to due South; some might get into protected spots but my guess is the wind is more likely to push it back

Monday: say in the 1-2 metre range at dead South spots, but there’ll be a lot of SW in the swell; despite the reasonable wave period there’ll be a battle between the wave pulse and the wind, most likely keeping it down

Tuesday:  bigger more southerly swell with a pulse could see it around maybe 2 or 2+ metres at places open to the South, with more getting into other places

Wednesday: easing back in the upper 1-2 metre range still due South

Thursday: down a little in the 1-2 metre range as the direction turns more South West

Friday: up again 2-3 metres at due South places.

A couple of wind chill days ahead too so stay warm.  Water’s pleasant enough.

Stay safe

TG

————-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Up in the Air

Blue skies and more blue skies

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Jul 11 06:30:00 2019

Lots of lines close together from the West ————What can it mean…??

MSLP Analysis for Thu Jul 11 00:00:00 2019 AUTC

You’ve got

Wind

blowing offshore >>>> and lots of it

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.373,151.216,8

Down in the Sea

Water temp

The MHL Sydney buoy temperature reader is off the air at the moment, but the last recording was 19.5 on 8 July, and I’d say from the feel of it, it’s about that.

image

Tides

^v^v^v^v

https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2019-2020.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Clear.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Clear. Winds west to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h tending north to northwesterly in the evening.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Friday 12 July

Summary
Min 10
Max 21
Becoming windy. Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light before dawn then becoming northwesterly 25 to 40 km/h in the morning.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon Location Min Max
Becoming windy. Partly cloudy. Sydney 10 21
Partly cloudy. Penrith 6 20
Partly cloudy. Liverpool 7 20
Partly cloudy. Terrey Hills 9 18
Partly cloudy. Richmond 6 20
Partly cloudy. Parramatta 7 20
Partly cloudy. Campbelltown 4 20
Becoming windy. Partly cloudy. Bondi 11 19

Saturday 13 July

Summary
Min 10
Max 16
Windy. Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Slight (20%) chance of a shower in the outer west. Winds northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h tending westerly 25 to 40 km/h early in the morning then increasing to 35 to 55 km/h in the morning.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Sunday 14 July

Summary
Min 7
Max 16
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds westerly 15 to 25 km/h turning northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the evening.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Monday 15 July

Summary
Min 8
Max 18
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning west to southwesterly 25 to 35 km/h during the morning then decreasing to 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon.

Tuesday 16 July

Summary
Min 9
Max 20
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds westerly 15 to 20 km/h turning southwesterly during the morning.

Wednesday 17 July

Summary
Min 7
Max 18
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds becoming westerly 15 to 20 km/h later.

Thursday 18 July

Summary
Min 9
Max 19
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds westerly 15 to 20 km/h.

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