Archive for August 2019

Not so red hot

Posted on August 31st, 2019 in Surf Reports.

Hello Friends,

Another 3-15mm of rain possible along the coast today as we head to a high of around 19. Water quality looked pretty bad and yesterday morning, before another solid day of rain, Beachwatch was warning pollution was possible at all Sydney beaches. Plus Warriewood STC had an overflow event. I’m leaving the microbial stew alone myself. But then again, it’s not a tough choice given the strictly ordinary conditions on offer this morning. At report writing time the wind was SSE 12-18 kts and the MHL buoy was showing 3 metres of 9-second jumbled junk from the SSE (154°).
The only place I saw people in the water was at Dee Why point (see pic below) where it looked to be in the chest to shoulder plus range. Not that it matters much, but the morning high tide is at 0845 (1.6m) and low is at 1430. Water temp has come back up a bit and is on 18C.
Tomorrow the ECM and Wavewatch both project 1.3 metres in the morning from the E-ESE at 7-8 seconds. Weather call is for mostly sunny with light winds too, so could be okay for a Dad’s day paddle. The rest of the week could have little waves off and on through to about Thursday when the models say to expect very small and marginal into the weekend. At this stage the long range models are projecting a 3 metre-ish south pulse at the weekend – ECM says close to 4m on Sunday while Wavewatch says 3 plus from Saturday.
Have a good one!

Ok size, not great quality, south Narrabeen 0645

South Narra high tide

People in the water at the point as of 0650 – such keenness

No Mans looking unattractive


Weather Situation
A broad low pressure trough lies over the western Tasman Sea, while a high pressure system over Bass Strait extends a ridge to the southern Tasman sea. The trough is expected to linger about the western Tasman Sea during the next couple of days as the high moves east over the southern Tasman Sea. On Sunday the trough moves away to the east as another high moves over New South Wales from the west.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots offshore during the morning. Winds decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Southeasterly 1.5 metres, tending easterly 1.5 metres during the morning, then increasing to 2 metres around midday.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 80% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Sunday 1 September
Winds
South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning southwesterly during the morning then becoming variable about 10 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres during the morning, then decreasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Monday 2 September
Winds
North to northwesterly about 10 knots tending west to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots during the morning then turning southerly during the day.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the afternoon.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning. Sunny afternoon


Overflow event at Warriewood outfall

Posted on August 30th, 2019 in Surf Reports.

From Sydney water Warriewood WWTP

We have and continuing to partially treated discharge at warriewood at Friday 30 August 2019 at 9:10am. Flows recieving wet weather treatment.


Raining and chilly this morning

Posted on August 30th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
It was raining steadily at 0730 this morning. Down at North Head the wind was out of the south at 18-25 kts and air temperature was around the 14C mark. At 0600 the MHL Sydney buoy was registering 3 metres of 9-second energy from the south (168°). Visibility from RealSurf HQ high atop Collaroy Plateau was too poor for pictures of the point and beach, so those will have to wait until the rain backs off. Speaking of which, Terrey Hills has recorded 58mm of rain thus far. The forecast calls for 6-20mm more, so I’d guess water quality will be affected.
As for the outlook, well, the ever reliable Goat has rolled out a fresh forecast overnight. I commend it to the house.
Have a great day everyone.

Gloomy Friday morning

Weather Situation
A broad low pressure trough lies over the western Tasman Sea, while a high pressure system over Bass Strait extends a ridge to the southern Tasman sea. The trough is expected to linger about the western Tasman Sea during the next couple of days as the high moves east over the southern Tasman Sea. On Sunday the trough moves away to the east as another high moves over New South Wales from the west.

Forecast for Friday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Friday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southeasterly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 2 metres.
2nd Swell
East to northeasterly below 0.5 metres, tending southeasterly 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy. 95% chance of rain and the chance of a thunderstorm.
Saturday 31 August
Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots early in the morning. Winds turning southerly during the day.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the afternoon.
2nd Swell
Southeasterly 1.5 metres, tending easterly 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then tending southeasterly 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers and the chance of a thunderstorm.
Sunday 1 September
Winds
South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots becoming variable about 10 knots during the morning, then northerly in the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
1st Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon or evening.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on August 29th, 2019 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 29 August 2019: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Surfing ??!! You’re joking!!  It’s freezing. the air is cold the water’s cold. Even the schoolkids and backpackers weren’t out today. It’ll be up at places open to dead South tomorrow but with wind too so do you really care?? Take a short break till it warms up.

Friday:  say a messy 2-3 metres or more at dead South spots

Saturday: in the 1-2 metre range East South East with S/SE wind

Sunday: 1-2 metre range East

Monday: 1-2 metres East and starting to get a few sets

Tuesday: 1-2 metres South East, coming up briefly from dead South

Wednesday: 1-2 metre range dead South easing back

Thursday: ditto easing back more, relaxing into a 28 degree day! But with an occasional set from South East to wake you up.

Have fun

TG

Up in the Air

MSLP Analysis for Thu Aug 29 06:00:00 2019 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Aug 29 07:30:00 2019

Winds

https://www.windy.com/?-34.069,150.815,5

Down in the Sea

Water temp is 17-18

image

Tides

https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2019-2020.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

Friday 30 August

Summary
Min 11
Max 15
Rain.
Possible rainfall: 20 to 60 mm
Chance of any rain: 100% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm in the early morning. Heavy falls possible at times in the east. Winds south to southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h tending south to southeasterly 25 to 40 km/h in the morning.

Sun protection recommended from 10:10 am to 1:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon Location Min Max
Rain. Sydney 11 15
Rain. Penrith 8 15
Rain. Liverpool 8 15
Rain. Terrey Hills 10 13
Rain. Richmond 7 14
Rain. Parramatta 9 15
Rain. Campbelltown 8 15
Rain. Bondi 12 14

Saturday 31 August

Summary
Min 12
Max 19
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 4 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds south to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h tending south to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:50 am to 2:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]

Sunday 1 September

Summary
Min 10
Max 22
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds.

Sun protection recommended from 9:30 am to 2:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 5 [Moderate]

Monday 2 September

Summary
Min 11
Max 22
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds westerly 15 to 20 km/h tending southwesterly during the day then becoming light during the afternoon.

Tuesday 3 September

Summary
Min 10
Max 23
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds.

Wednesday 4 September

Summary
Min 10
Max 22
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Thursday 5 September

Summary
Min 13
Max 28
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds northwesterly 25 to 35 km/h turning southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.


Chilly and rainy start to Thursday

Posted on August 29th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

A rainy start to what promises to be a cold and showery day for the Northern Beaches. There was very little in the way of wave activity as of 0730 and, while the wind was coming from the SW, there’s a strong wind warning for south, turning SE later. The MHL buoy was seeing a metre at 11 seconds from the S-SSE (154°) and that was translating into dribbly waist to chest high sideshore stuff from about No Mans to the lagoon. The Bureau says the waves will get bigger later, but given the wind forecast, it’s not shaping to be too interesting
Not much of a surfing day.
The Goat should be along later with his outlook for the coming week, so here’s hoping he sees something interesting in the entrails…
Have a top old Thursday.

 

Sole surfer at Longy, 0800

It was a dark and stormy day

Crow, clouds and sea

Seawall works at Collaroy

Weather Situation
Conditions along the coast today are being influenced by a broad low pressure trough that lies over the western Tasman Sea. A high pressure system near western Victoria extends a ridge through Bass Strait to the south of the trough. The trough is expected to linger about the western Tasman Sea during the next couple of days as the high moves east over the southern Tasman Sea. By Monday the trough moves away to the east as another high moves over New South Wales from the west.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Thursday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots turning southeasterly 20 to 25 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Winds reaching up to 30 knots in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Cloudy. Near 100% chance of showers and the chance of a thunderstorm.
Friday 30 August
Strong Wind Warning for Friday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southeasterly 20 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots during the day.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
1st Swell
Southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Southerly 1 to 2 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 95% chance of showers and the chance of a thunderstorm.
Saturday 31 August
Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 20 knots decreasing to about 10 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Southeasterly 1 to 2 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning


Little waves to be had on Wednesday morning

Posted on August 28th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
Didn’t expect to see much of anything this morning when I stopped by Longy for a look at the beach around 0745. But, as the pictures show, there were knee to waist plus sets showing up from Longy to Kiddies. Wind was light westerly but should be around to the eastern quarters soon.
Tide was high at 0620 (low’s at noon), so there appeared to still be some high water fatness happening. Waves would wobble up on the banks and sort of spill over, offering (briefly) enough face to do something. Often as not, they then disapated in the gutter between the bank and beach.
The MHL buoy was picking up 1.2 metres of 9-second SSE (154°) as of 0600. Ocean temp is about 17C.
Tomorrow will see SE both wind and shortish period but slightly bigger (out at sea) south wind swell. From a surf perspective, the models are pointing to ho-hum prospects from tomorrow through Saturday. Around Sunday conditions could be a little better as the wind goes back to the westerly quarters and swell gets more east with a bit longer period. My modest hope is for waist to chest high faces at magnets for Father’s Day morning.

Go well with your Wednesday plans everyone!

 

Little bumps at Kiddies

Lugga bomb set

Maybe longboardable on the sets at Longy

Weather Situation
A high pressure system lies over the central Tasman Sea, with another in the Bight. Between these systems, a complex trough lies near the New South Wales coast, within which there are multiple weak low pressure circulations. This trough is expected to move away from the coast tonight and Thursday as a cold front crosses southeast Australia, although a new trough is forecast to develop off the central and northern coasts on Friday while a high passes to the south.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Winds
South to southeasterly about 10 knots becoming east to northeasterly in the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Weather
The chance of a thunderstorm this morning. Mostly sunny afternoon.
Thursday 29 August
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming west to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots before dawn then shifting southeasterly 15 to 25 knots in the morning.
Seas
Around 1 metre, 1.5 to 2.5 metres by evening.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres in the evening.
Weather
Cloudy. Near 100% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Friday 30 August
Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Northeast to southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. Near 100% chance of showers and the chance of a thunderstorm.


Gloomy skies, bumpy little waves

Posted on August 27th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

10-17 kts of SE wind and lowering skies to start the day at Dee Why. Swell was about 1.5 m out at sea and coming from the SE at a choppy 7 econds apart. As the pictures show, this meant lumpy, choppy and just barely big enough to catch waves. I’d call it waist on sets.
Tide was high at 0520 and is currently dropping to the low at 1100. Ocean temp has dropped a bit more and is now 16C according to Beachwatch.
Outlook is for conditions to bumble along at around the current intensity for the next few days at least. There’s a virtual certainty of rain today and we can expect the percipitation to wax and wane right through to Sunday.
Surf prospects look pretty ordinary until about Sunday – at the earliest.
Good weather for the bush and our gardens though.
Have a top old Tuesday everyone!

Little wave at No Mans 0650

Sydney in the gloom

Keen rider oars into one at Kiddies 0650

Possible activity at the point 0700

Weather Situation
A weak high pressure system is centred over the central Tasman Sea, with another over the Bight. Between these systems, a broad trough lies near the New South Wales coast, within which a low is expected to develop today. A cold front skimming across the state’s south on Wednesday is expected to push the trough eastwards across the Tasman Sea, although a new trough is forecast to develop off the central and northern coasts on Thursday.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Winds
Easterly 15 to 20 knots turning southeasterly during the morning, reaching 25 knots offshore in the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. Near 100% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm during the morning and afternoon.
Wednesday 28 August
Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots becoming variable about 10 knots in the morning.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers.
Thursday 29 August
Winds
West to northwesterly below 10 knots tending south to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots during the morning then turning southeasterly during the day.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
South to southwesterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. Near 100% chance of showers. A thunderstorm likely in the afternoon and evening.


Weak and tiny Monday

Posted on August 26th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
Although it was still close to 2 metres out at sea this morning, the average period was under 10 seconds and direction was 162°, so what swell’s getting into the beaches is around knee high and gutless looking. Wind was 7-8 kts from the SE too. An early shower delayed me getting a picture of the ocean and the Bureau tells us to expect a cloudy, showery day with 5-15mm of percipitation.
Tomorrow looks like more of the same, ie very little swell energy and showery weather with steady onshores. Beyond that it currently seems likely that we’re in for tiny, weak south wind bump into the weekend. Both the ECM and WAM models show a southerly event Friday-Saturday, but there’s a big questionmark over the quality. If it plays out as the models predict right now, we’re probably looking at weak to gutless waist to chest high faces with lots of south wind.
A good week to get on with things not involving wave chasing.
Have a great Monday!

Weather Situation
A high pressure system is centred over the northern Tasman Sea will gradually move southwards. A weak cold front will dissipate on the north coast today as a trough of low pressure develops along the coast today. A stronger cold front is expected to affect the New South Wales coast on Thursday which will deepen the trough.

Forecast for Monday until midnight
Winds
South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending easterly in the morning.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre later in the evening.
Weather
Cloudy. 95% chance of showers.
Tuesday 27 August
Winds
East to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending east to southeasterly 15 to 25 knots during the morning and early afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1 to 2 metres around midday.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 95% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore at night.
Wednesday 28 August
Winds
Variable about 10 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning.


Back to sunny and tiny

Posted on August 25th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Beautiful morning as Sunday kicked off. But the waves have faded away to almost nothing. There are little lines showing, but they’re struggling to make waist high. There might be a little more activity at the Long Reef end or around at Curly, but the MHL buoy was seeing a metre of 11-second stuff from the SE, so I’m not overly hopeful. Tide hits low at 0850 and then comes back to the high at 1535. By then a south change should have come through and it could be cloudy (there’s a 40% chance of light percipitation later). Ocean is on 17C according to Beachwatch.

From tomorrow it looks as though we head into a period of much needed showery weather that on current reckoning will last into next weekend. It also seems we’re in for a good week to be at work or school as there won’t be much in the way of waves – if the models have it right.

So enjoy your sunny morning and have a great day!

Little waves along the beach at 0730

Maybe if you waited long enough (on a mal or a SUP) you could get something at the point this morning

Weather Situation
A high pressure system is centred over the northwest Tasman Sea. A cold front has begun to move through the southwest of the state and will bring a southerly change which will push north during the day and reach the Mid North Coast in the evening. The front will dissipate on the north coast on Monday as a trough of low pressure develops along the coast. Southeast winds are expected to tend back to the northeast ahead of the next cold front forecast to affect the southern half of the coast during Wednesday.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight
Winds
West to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots shifting southerly 15 to 20 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres by early evening.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Monday 26 August
Winds
South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending east to southeasterly below 10 knots during the day.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then decreasing to around 1 metre by early evening.
Weather
Cloudy. 80% chance of showers.
Tuesday 27 August
Winds
East to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending east to northeasterly below 10 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy. 95% chance of showers.


Still a few left in the locker but fading fast

Posted on August 24th, 2019 in Surf Reports.

Hello Friends,

As of 0500 the MHL buoy was shwoing 1.7 metres of 12 second energy from the SE (131°). Wind at 0630 was out of the WNW at 7 kts under clear skies. Air was 10C (going to a toasty 25C later) and tide was dropping to a 0.6 m low at 0750. High is at 1430. Beachwatch says the water temp has dropped to a chilly (for Sydney) 16C.

Line at Longy

Not much at Butterbox

The point mostly missing it now

Interesting set at Kiddies

No Mans shutdown

Lugga runner

Probably not…

Not obviously good at Northy

Weather Situation
This will result in southerly winds easing then shifting northerly along most of the New South Wales coast during the next day or so, while a large and powerful swell gradually eases. The next cold front is set to bring a southerly change to southern and central parts during Sunday, continuing to the north on Monday.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Winds
Northwesterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots offshore during the morning. Winds tending northerly in the late afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres by early evening.
Weather
Sunny.
Sunday 25 August
Winds
Northwesterly 10 to 15 knots shifting south to southeasterly in the middle of the day.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning, then increasing to 1.5 metres later in the evening.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Monday 26 August
Winds
Southerly 10 to 15 knots turning southeasterly during the morning.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 60% chance of showers.