Archive for October 2019

Postcard from Mundaka

Posted on October 19th, 2019 in At large.

Swell was up again so we drove down south into Spain to the legendary river mouth town of Mundaka.  The famous left hander was ‘cooking’ when we arrived  at low tide (which is prime time).

Nice and simple paddle out from the harbour at Mundaka.   Catching a set wave not so easy however with 80 plus surfers in the water.  Still a couple from our group managed to jag a few.

Mundaka firing today


Little waves for Saturday morning

Posted on October 19th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Swell faded pretty dramatically overnight, but there are still little knee to waist high bumps at magnet spots. Surface conditions were perfect as the day got started with only a faint NW breeze wafting across the shore and out to sea. We’re currently coming off the low tide at 0600 and heading to a 1.6 m high at 1230. Should be a sunny all day as we build to a high of 28. Water’s clean and 18C. Swell’s about a metre at sea and coming from the east at 9 seconds or so.

Wind is expected to pick up from the NW before fading this afternoon and swinging strong SW later.

Outlook is for conditions to remain marginal – but with luck not utterly flat – through the coming week. Figure on knee to waist with the odd bigger one. Mornings, as usual will be best.

Have a top old Saturday!

South Narra too tiny

North Narra crew on the knee to waist high waves

Long Reef

Long Reef

Tropical frame of rider at Butterbox

Peaceful scene in the heart off Dee Why

Kiddies at 0630

Too tiny for the point

No Mans peak

Weather Situation
Northerly winds will be replaced by a vigorous south to southwesterly change, courtesy of a cold front, over the southern and central waters today and northern waters early Sunday. Winds are forecast to ease early next week as a ridge of high pressure extends from the west and the front moves further east away from the New South Wales coast.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast
Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots becoming variable about 10 knots in the early afternoon then becoming southwesterly 20 to 30 knots in the early evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny day. The chance of a thunderstorm late this afternoon and evening.
Sunday 20 October
Winds
Southwesterly 15 to 25 knots becoming variable about 10 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then decreasing below 1 metre around midday.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Monday 21 October
Winds
Variable below 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres inshore, increasing to 1 to 2 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


Energy and sunny skies for Friday morning

Posted on October 18th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Late yesterday afternoon I spent half an hour shooting waves at Northy until the sun got too low. Sets were into the head high range and the crowd of 20 plus were having to deal with fierce offshore wind. But if you could get through the fire hose in the face take offs, there were some nice looking waves to be had. I wondered if it’d stick around overnight and as the pictures show, it most definitely has.

We have a mix of NE and SSE swell for Friday morning. The main energy is coming from the south. Offshore at 0500 it was 2 metres at 9 seconds. Wind at report writing time was WSW 9-12 kts. It should slack off a little as the day goes along. Next tide is a high at 1145.

As for the outlook, well, the Goat has done his thing just in time for the weekend.

Set at No Mans 0735

No Mans

The point seems to be smaller and less consistent than the beach

Nice looking left at No Mans

Last night at North Narrabeen

Weather Situation

A high pressure system will continue to strengthen over the north of the state, bringing light east to southeasterly winds in the northern parts and freshening northerly winds about the south. The next cold front will move through on Saturday, bringing another southerly change to the southern coast.

Forecast for Friday until midnight

Winds
Southwesterly 15 to 20 knots becoming variable about 10 knots in the middle of the day then becoming north to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning, then increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by early evening.
1st Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

Saturday 19 October

Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast

Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots becoming variable about 10 knots in the middle of the day then becoming southwesterly 15 to 25 knots in the evening. Winds reaching up to 30 knots in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then decreasing to 1 metre around midday.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Sunny day. The chance of a thunderstorm in the late afternoon and evening.

Sunday 20 October

Winds
Southwesterly 20 to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots during the morning then turning south to southeasterly below 10 knots during the day.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Northeast to southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

 


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on October 17th, 2019 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 17 October 2019: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

At last, a touch of Summerish weather, warm, sunny, bit windy ! but not humid… maybe the waves could be better, but better than nothing.

The outlook is as follows… just a quickie for you…

Friday: somewhere in the 1-2 metre range at places that are open to dead South swell, then easing back

Saturday: around 1ish metres from dead South

Sunday: ditto

Monday: ditto

Tuesday: ditto

Wednesday: ditto

Thursday: dittoish and Eastish

Could be ideal, or could be ordinary, depending on lots of wind variations and the tides.

How’s that for precision.

It’s the ocean, it’s nature, it doesn’t work by precision.  Just embrace the vibe~~~~~~~~~~

TG

Up in the Sky

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Oct 17 06:30:00 2019

MSLP Analysis for Thu Oct 17 06:00:00 2019 AUTC

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.373,151.216,8

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 19… improving, but could do better

image

Tides

https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2019-2020.pdf

 

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Windy. Clear.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Clear. Winds westerly 30 to 45 km/h decreasing to 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:20 am to 4:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 8 [Very High]

Friday 18 October

Summary
Min 12
Max 23
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds west to southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h becoming light in the morning then becoming north to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the late afternoon.

Fire Danger – High

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 8 [Very High]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon Location Min Max
Sunny. Sydney 12 23
Sunny. Penrith 10 28
Sunny. Liverpool 10 27
Sunny. Terrey Hills 11 22
Sunny. Richmond 9 27
Sunny. Parramatta 10 26
Sunny. Campbelltown 9 27
Sunny. Bondi 13 21

Saturday 19 October

Summary
Min 14
Max 28
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Slight (20%) chance of a shower along the coastal fringe in the late afternoon and evening. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Light winds becoming westerly 25 to 35 km/h in the morning then tending southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 8 [Very High]

Sunday 20 October

Summary
Min 12
Max 21
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds west to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light during the morning.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 7 [High]

Monday 21 October

Summary
Min 12
Max 22
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

Tuesday 22 October

Summary
Min 13
Max 23
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 23 October

Summary
Min 15
Max 23
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Thursday 24 October

Summary
Min 15
Max 29
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Light winds becoming north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.


Little bumps on Thursday

Posted on October 17th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

A faint westerly at 0700. RealSurf HQ was socked in with fog, but looking at the MHL data from 0400 showed 1.2 metres of 11 sec bump from the SSE. Tide was low at 0440 and is currently headed to the 1.6 m high at 1105. Once the fog burns off, the wind will pick up as we head toward a high of 28C along the coast.

Foggy start to Thursday at RealSurf HQ

Weak and junky knee to waist high at 0745

Shapeless but the odd brief section offers a tiny bit of energy to play with before the tide swamps it

Weather Situation
A high pressure ridge lies over northern New South Wales coast while a trough of low pressure is lying across central parts. The ridge is directing north to northeasterly winds over the northern half while the trough slowly extends a southerly change to the remainder of the Coastal Waters. Winds throughout will tend northerly again by tonight ahead of the next cold front on Thursday, strengthening and turning more westerly with the front. Winds will weaken during Friday as a new ridge develops across the north.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Thursday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming westerly 10 to 15 knots in the middle of the day then increasing to 15 to 25 knots in the late afternoon. Winds reaching up to 30 knots during the afternoon and evening.
Seas
Below 0.5 metres, increasing to around 1 metre around midday, then increasing to 2 to 2.5 metres by early evening.
Swell
East to northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres inshore, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore during the morning.
Weather
The chance of a thunderstorm this morning. Mostly sunny afternoon.
Friday 18 October
Gale Warning for Friday for Sydney Coast
Winds
West to southwesterly 25 to 30 knots, reaching up to 35 knots offshore early in the morning. Winds becoming southwesterly 15 to 25 knots early in the morning then shifting north to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing below 2 metres during the morning, then decreasing to 1 metre around midday.
1st Swell
Southwesterly below 1 metre, tending southerly 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Sunny.
Saturday 19 October
Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots tending northwesterly 10 to 15 knots during the morning then turning southwesterly 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 2 metres.
Weather
Sunny day. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening


Nope, not this morning you aren’t

Posted on October 16th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Ankle to knee high at Mid Steyne

Up and riding

Hello Friends,

12-17 kts of southerly wind under grey skies as Wednesday kicked off. Out at sea there was a 1.5 metre mixture of NNE and SE wind bump (average period was around 7 seconds). Tide was running into a swampy 1.65 m high at 1030. Ocean’s on 19C and we’re headed to a high of 25C along the coast. Dee Why was unsurfably tiny.

When can we expect things to improve I hear you ask? Well, not today, but maybe tomorrow it’ll get back into the just rideable range as a little NE pulse fills in. The models are showing a little over a metre at 10-11 seconds from the east for Thursday. Wind outlook is for SW going W across the day, so there is some fun potential in the cards I’d say. Friday could also be a possibility as a south pulse is expected to mix in with the fading east from Thursday. Again, nothing extraordinary, but if you’re not too picky, there should be something.

Will try to post a picture of today’s ordinariness later this morning.

Have a great day!

Weather Situation
A high pressure ridge lies over northern New South Wales coast while a trough of low pressure is lying across southeast. The ridge is directing north to northeasterly winds over the northern half while the trough slowly extends a southerly change to the remainder of the Coastal Waters. Winds throughout will tend northerly again by tonight ahead of the next cold front on Thursday, strengthening and turning more westerly with the front. Winds will weaken during Friday as a new ridge develops across the north.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Winds
South to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots becoming variable about 10 knots in the middle of the day then becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the evening. Winds reaching up to 25 knots inshore in the late evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm during this afternoon and evening.
Thursday 17 October
Strong Wind Warning for Thursday for Sydney Coast
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots shifting west to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots early in the morning then becoming westerly 15 to 25 knots in the middle of the day. Winds reaching up to 30 knots offshore in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning, then increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
Weather
The chance of a thunderstorm offshore in the early morning. Mostly sunny afternoon.
Friday 18 October
Winds
West to southwesterly 15 to 25 knots becoming variable about 10 knots during the day then becoming northerly 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
1st Swell
Southerly below 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Sunny.
Please be aware
Wind and wave forecasts are averages. Wind gusts can be 40 per cent stronger than the forecast, and stronger still in squalls and thunderstorms. Maximum waves can be twice the forecast height.
Nearby Coastal Waters

See detailed wind and wave forecasts on MetEye
This forecast is also available via scheduled broadcasts on marine radio.
Latest Coastal Observations
Tide Predictions
Marine Knowledge Centre – explanations and definitions
The next routine forecast will be issued at 4:05 pm EDT Wednesday.
Product IDN11009


Tiny Tuesday tiddlers

Posted on October 15th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

As expected yesterday’s little waves have faded into the knee to maybe waist high range this morning at Dee Why. At 0730 skies were partly cloudy and wind was coming faintly from the NE, texturing the surface slightly. Tide was coming into a 1.6 m high at 0955.  At 0500 the MHL buoy was seeing 1.5 metres of SSE at 10 seconds apart.

Beachwatch says the water’s clear everywhere apart from North Curly where there might be some lagoon outflow (presumably). They say the water temp has bumped up to 19C.

The swell models offer little hope for the next week. Some show us getting a little more of the current littleness tomorrow morning but both ECM and Wavewatch are saying it’ll be flat from Thursday-Friday through to early next week. Spring doing its thing from the look of it.

Have a great Tuesday everyone and get up to some good while you’re about it!

Bomb set hits Kiddies

Feeble point

Maybe waist high on that one with no takers

No mans knee plus 0700

Weather Situation
A high pressure ridge lies over northern New South Wales coast while a trough of low pressure lying across inland parts of the state is gradually moving further eastwards. The ridge is directing north to northeasterly winds over coastal areas for the remainder of the day until the trough brings a southerly change to the southern half of the coast later tonight. Winds throughout will tend northerly again by late Wednesday ahead of the next cold front on Thursday, strengthening and turning more westerly with the front. Winds will weaken during Friday as a new ridge develops across the north.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Winds
Northerly 10 to 15 knots turning northeasterly during the morning then increasing to 15 to 25 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 metres by early evening.
Swell
Southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Wednesday 16 October
Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots offshore early in the morning. Winds shifting south to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the morning then becoming east to southeasterly about 10 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then decreasing below 1 metre around midday.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Thursday 17 October
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming westerly 20 to 30 knots during the morning then tending southwesterly 20 to 25 knots during the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


Swell fading fast

Posted on October 14th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
Partly cloudy skies this morning with a light NW breeze texturing the rapidly declining 1.3 m 12-sec SSE swell. As the pictures show, there were a few people at the point and more scattered along the beach north from Kiddies. Wave faces on sets look to be around the waist to chest high range. Tide was coming into the high at 0920. By the time it’s back to low at 1530 the wind should be a summery NE’r and the swell will likely be closer to knee to waist.
Right now it looks from the models as though we can expect energy levels to be weak across the middle part of the week. There is some hope that energy could start coming more from the east from tomorrow, so although it’s set to be smaller, there may be a few more opportunities for a little wave. This morning’s end of the week swell predictions are pointing to a small south influx late Thursday to Friday, but it’s not shaping to amount to much.
Have yourself a great Monday everyone!
 

Waist high lines at 0650

Crew hanging out on the point, waiting for a catchable set. 0650


 
Weather Situation
A high pressure ridge along the New South Wales coast is slowly moving east while a trough approaches from the west. This pattern will direct north to northeasterly winds over New South Wales waters for most of today, while the trough will bring a southerly change to the southern half of the coast on Tuesday. Winds throughout will tend northerly again by late Wednesday ahead of the next major frontal passage on Thursday.

Forecast for Monday until midnight
Winds
Northerly 10 to 15 knots tending north to northeasterly in the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southeasterly 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Tuesday 15 October
Winds
North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots. A southerly change 15 to 20 knots moving into the inshore area from the early afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Wednesday 16 October
Winds
South to south westerly 10 to 15 knots tending southeasterly during the afternoon then tending north to northeasterly during the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


Sunday morning surfin’

Posted on October 13th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Shoulder plus faces on sets this morning at Dee Why. Before 0900 the wind was coming lightly from the west. It should swing around to the SE soon, but with luck it won’t blow too hard. Swell’s about 2.5 metres out at sea and coming from the SSE at about 13 seconds apart. Tide peaked at 0850 and is now dropping to the low at 1455.

From the look of the forecast models, the swell should fade gradually but still be producing something tomorrow morning. After that though it would seem the rest of the week will be small to very small. So, if you’re keen, you can join the Sunday crowds or jam in a quick sesh before work on Monday.

Have a great Sunday everyone!

Quite a few chasing waves along the beach at 0840

Busy at the point with shoulder plus faces on sets at 0840

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea extends a ridge along the New South Wales coast, directing south to southeasterly winds over New South Wales waters. Winds will shift north to northeasterly over the next day or two as an inland trough deepens and the ridge moves offshore. A southerly change is expected to affect the southern coast on Tuesday.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight

Winds
South to southeasterly about 10 knots becoming east to northeasterly in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southeasterly 2 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Monday 14 October

Winds
North to northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the morning.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon or evening.
Swell
Southeasterly 2 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Tuesday 15 October

Winds
Northerly 10 to 15 knots tending northeasterly during the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Blowy and messy morning

Posted on October 12th, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Rain overnight but it seemed to be clearing this morning. Sadly the surf situation is not terribly interesting. The SE wind blew all night and as Saturday started it was 10-15 kts from the SE. There is swell but as the pictures show, the surface conditions are pretty bad. Out at sea swell was 2.5 metres at 13 seconds apart from the S-SSE. First tide of the day is a high at 0820. It’ll be low again at 1420. Water’s on 18C, but you have to wonder about quality after that downpour last night.

The wind blown conditions are set to continue all day and overnight, but at least some modelling shows it backing off for the morning session tomorrow. The swell should hang in there at about the same intensity, so just maybe the weekend warriors will wake to fun conditions at south magnets.

Looking at the rest of the week the trend appears to be downward. With luck we’ll get another reasonable session on Monday morning before things cog down into the marginal knee to waist high range for the rest of the week.

Have a great Saturday one and all!

White rock is a maybe

Windblown midway between Dee Why and Longy

Messy but just barely surfable at the point

South Narrabeen

North Narrabeen nup

Weather Situation
A high pressure ridge over the Tasman Sea will direct east to southeast winds along the coast over the weekend. Winds will shift north to northeasterly and strengthen from Monday as an inland trough will deepens.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Winds
East to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the afternoon.
Swell
Southeasterly 2 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 80% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and early afternoon.
Sunday 13 October
Winds
East to southeasterly about 10 knots tending northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southeasterly 2 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Monday 14 October
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots decreasing to about 10 knots during the morning then increasing to 15 to 20 knots during the day.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon or evening.
Swell
Southeasterly 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy.